NYSE:ARD

Stock Analysis Report

NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION
Header cover image

Executive Summary

Ardagh Group S.A., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and supplies rigid packaging solutions primarily for the food and beverage markets worldwide. More Details


Snowflake Analysis

Reasonable growth potential with questionable track record.


Similar Companies

Share Price & News

How has Ardagh Group's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events

Stable Share Price: ARD is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 8% a week.

Volatility Over Time: ARD's weekly volatility (8%) has been stable over the past year.


Market Performance


7 Day Return

32.3%

ARD

1.1%

US Packaging

-1.3%

US Market


1 Year Return

44.4%

ARD

31.4%

US Packaging

41.9%

US Market

Return vs Industry: ARD exceeded the US Packaging industry which returned 33.4% over the past year.

Return vs Market: ARD exceeded the US Market which returned 36.5% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

ARDIndustryMarket
7 Day32.3%1.1%-1.3%
30 Day53.7%5.3%7.5%
90 Day44.8%1.9%15.9%
1 Year50.6%44.4%34.1%31.4%44.8%41.9%
3 Year58.3%42.4%34.9%25.2%49.1%41.0%
5 Yearn/a105.6%81.9%113.1%92.8%

Long-Term Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is Ardagh Group's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

Valuation

Is Ardagh Group undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

12.2%

Undervalued compared to fair value


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: ARD ($26.13) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($29.75)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ARD is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: ARD is poor value based on its PE Ratio (475.2x) compared to the US Packaging industry average (25.5x).

PE vs Market: ARD is poor value based on its PE Ratio (475.2x) compared to the US market (21.2x).


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: ARD is poor value based on its PEG Ratio (8.5x)


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: ARD has negative assets, so we can't compare its PB Ratio to the US Packaging industry average.


Next Steps

Future Growth

How is Ardagh Group forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 5 analysts?

55.8%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: ARD's forecast earnings growth (55.8% per year) is above the savings rate (2%).

Earnings vs Market: ARD's earnings (55.8% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (20% per year).

High Growth Earnings: earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: ARD's revenue (6% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (10.4% per year).

High Growth Revenue: ARD's revenue (6% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: ARD's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (22.4%)


Next Steps

Past Performance

How has Ardagh Group performed over the past 5 years?

-15.6%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: ARD has a large one-off loss of $132.0M impacting its December 31 2020 financial results.

Growing Profit Margin: ARD became profitable in the past.


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: ARD has become profitable over the past 5 years, growing earnings by -15.6% per year.

Accelerating Growth: ARD has become profitable in the last year, making the earnings growth rate difficult to compare to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: ARD has become profitable in the last year, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Packaging industry (-4%).


Return on Equity

High ROE: ARD's liabilities exceed its assets, so it is difficult to calculate its Return on Equity.


Next Steps

Financial Health

How is Ardagh Group's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: ARD has negative shareholder equity, which is a more serious situation than short term assets not covering short term liabilities.

Long Term Liabilities: ARD has negative shareholder equity, which is a more serious situation than short term assets not covering long term liabilities.


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: ARD has negative shareholder equity, which is a more serious situation than a high debt level.

Reducing Debt: ARD's has negative shareholder equity, so we do not need to check if its debt has reduced over time.

Debt Coverage: ARD's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (10.7%).

Interest Coverage: ARD's interest payments on its debt are not well covered by EBIT (1.5x coverage).


Balance Sheet


Next Steps

Dividend

What is Ardagh Group current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

2.30%

Current Dividend Yield


Upcoming Dividend Payment


Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: ARD's dividend (2.3%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.33%).

High Dividend: ARD's dividend (2.3%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (3.76%).


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Whilst dividend payments have been stable, ARD has been paying a dividend for less than 10 years.

Growing Dividend: ARD's dividend payments have increased, but the company has only paid a dividend for 4 years.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: With its high payout ratio (1091.1%), ARD's dividend payments are not well covered by earnings.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: ARD's dividends in 3 years are forecast to be well covered by earnings (24.5% payout ratio).


Next Steps

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

5.0yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Paul Coulson (67 yo)

3.17yrs

Tenure

Mr. Paul R. Coulson founded Yeoman International Group Limited in 1980 and serves as its Chief Executive Officer. Mr. Coulson founded Yeoman International Group Limited in 1982. He served as an Executive O...


Leadership Team

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
Paul Coulson
Executive Chairman & CEO3.17yrsno datano data
David Matthews
Group CFO & Director6.92yrsno datano data
Shaun Murphy
COO & Executive Director1.25yrsno datano data
John Sheehan
Group Investor Relations Director9.08yrsno datano data
Donald Puglisi
Managing Directorno datano datano data
Alex Jonker
Managing Director of Operations Metal - Europe10.08yrsno datano data
Alex Robertson
Chief Commercial Officer of Glass Americasno datano datano data
John Sadlier
Chief Sustainability Officer1.17yrsno datano data
Martin Petersson
Chief Executive of the European Glass Divisionno datano datano data
Bertrand Paulet
Chief Executive of North American Glass Unitno datano datano data
Oliver Graham
Chief Executive Officer of Ardagh Beverage Canno datano datano data

5.0yrs

Average Tenure

55yo

Average Age

Experienced Management: ARD's management team is seasoned and experienced (5 years average tenure).


Board Members

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
Paul Coulson
Executive Chairman & CEO3.17yrsno datano data
David Matthews
Group CFO & Director6.92yrsno datano data
Shaun Murphy
COO & Executive Director1.25yrsno datano data
Edward White
Independent Non-Executive Director4.08yrsno datano data
Houghton Fry
Independent Director16.75yrsno datano data
Brendan Dowling
Independent Director23.08yrsno datano data
Hermanus Roelof Troskie
Independent Non-Executive Directorno datano datano data
Johan Gorter
Director5.08yrsno datano data
Philip Hammond
Independent Non-Executive Director1.25yrsno datano data
Gerald Moloney
Non-Executive Director5.08yrsno datano data
Damien O'Brien
Independent Non-Executive Director4.08yrsno datano data

5.1yrs

Average Tenure

64yo

Average Age

Experienced Board: ARD's board of directors are considered experienced (5.1 years average tenure).


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

Ardagh Group S.A.'s company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Ardagh Group S.A.
  • Ticker: ARD
  • Exchange: NYSE
  • Founded: 1932
  • Industry: Metal and Glass Containers
  • Sector: Materials
  • Market Cap: US$6.176b
  • Shares outstanding: 236.36m
  • Website: https://www.ardaghgroup.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • Ardagh Group S.A.
  • 56, rue Charles Martel
  • Luxembourg City
  • 2134
  • Luxembourg

Listings

TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
ARDNYSE (New York Stock Exchange)YesClass A SharesUSUSDMar 2017
UKYEDB (Deutsche Boerse AG)YesClass A SharesDEEURMar 2017

Biography

Ardagh Group S.A., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and supplies rigid packaging solutions primarily for the food and beverage markets worldwide. The company operates through four segments: Met...


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2021/03/02 00:29
End of Day Share Price2021/03/01 00:00
Earnings2020/12/31
Annual Earnings2020/12/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.