Stock Analysis

Alcoa's (NYSE:AA) Dividend Will Be $0.10

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NYSE:AA
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Alcoa Corporation (NYSE:AA) has announced that it will pay a dividend of $0.10 per share on the 18th of November. This payment means the dividend yield will be 1.0%, which is below the average for the industry.

Check out the opportunities and risks within the US Metals and Mining industry.

Alcoa's Earnings Easily Cover The Distributions

The dividend yield is a little bit low, but sustainability of the payments is also an important part of evaluating an income stock. While Alcoa is not profitable, it is paying out less than 75% of its free cash flow, which means that there is plenty left over for reinvestment into the business. In general, cash flows are more important than the more traditional measures of profit so we feel pretty comfortable with the dividend at this level.

Looking forward, earnings per share is forecast to rise exponentially over the next year. Assuming the dividend continues along recent trends, we think the payout ratio will be 39%, which makes us pretty comfortable with the sustainability of the dividend.

historic-dividend
NYSE:AA Historic Dividend October 23rd 2022

Alcoa Doesn't Have A Long Payment History

The company hasn't been paying a dividend for very long at all, so we can't really make a judgement on how stable the dividend has been. This doesn't mean that the company can't pay a good dividend, but just that we want to wait until it can prove itself.

The Company Could Face Some Challenges Growing The Dividend

Some investors will be chomping at the bit to buy some of the company's stock based on its dividend history. It's encouraging to see that Alcoa has been growing its earnings per share at 19% a year over the past five years. Unprofitable companies aren't normally our pick for a dividend stock, but we like the growth that we have been seeing. All is not lost, but the future of the dividend definitely rests upon the company's ability to become profitable soon.

Our Thoughts On Alcoa's Dividend

Overall, it's nice to see a consistent dividend payment, but we think that longer term, the current level of payment might be unsustainable. The payments haven't been particularly stable and we don't see huge growth potential, but with the dividend well covered by cash flows it could prove to be reliable over the short term. Overall, we don't think this company has the makings of a good income stock.

Companies possessing a stable dividend policy will likely enjoy greater investor interest than those suffering from a more inconsistent approach. Still, investors need to consider a host of other factors, apart from dividend payments, when analysing a company. Earnings growth generally bodes well for the future value of company dividend payments. See if the 10 Alcoa analysts we track are forecasting continued growth with our free report on analyst estimates for the company. If you are a dividend investor, you might also want to look at our curated list of high yield dividend stocks.

What are the risks and opportunities for Alcoa?

Alcoa Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells bauxite, alumina, and aluminum products in the United States, Spain, Australia, Iceland, Norway, Brazil, Canada, and internationally.

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Rewards

  • Earnings are forecast to grow 67.25% per year

Risks

  • Significant insider selling over the past 3 months

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