| Snowflake Score | |
|---|---|
| Valuation | 3/6 |
| Future Growth | 4/6 |
| Past Performance | 2/6 |
| Financial Health | 4/6 |
| Dividends | 4/6 |
PGR Stock Overview
The Progressive Corporation, an insurance holding company, provides personal and commercial auto, personal residential and commercial property, general liability, and other specialty property-casualty insurance products and related services in the United States.
Progressive Competitors
Price History & Performance
| Historical stock prices | |
|---|---|
| Current Share Price | US$111.90 |
| 52 Week High | US$120.17 |
| 52 Week Low | US$89.35 |
| Beta | 0.50 |
| 1 Month Change | 2.06% |
| 3 Month Change | 6.34% |
| 1 Year Change | 10.79% |
| 3 Year Change | 39.09% |
| 5 Year Change | 167.58% |
| Change since IPO | 10,363.38% |
Recent News & Updates
LRT Capital - Progressive Corp: Unstoppable Cost Advantages
Progressive's sales model has allowed it to deliver industry leading combined ratios. The cost advantages conferred by the direct sales model are unstoppable. We believe the industry structure is going to evolve towards a duopoly with Progressive and GEICO as the two main players. An increase in interest rates will benefit PGR as the portfolio will relatively rapidly reprice into higher yielding securities.
The Progressive Corporation - An Outstanding Company At A Fair Price
Progressive is an outstanding insurer enjoying fast and profitable growth. Its current valuation of ~3.5 BV seems justified. Higher bond yields, continuing growth of Personal Auto, and the increasing importance of profitable Commercial Auto create a favorable outlook for the company.
Shareholder Returns
| PGR | US Insurance | US Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7D | 3.7% | 2.2% | 2.7% |
| 1Y | 10.8% | 3.5% | -8.1% |
Return vs Industry: PGR exceeded the US Insurance industry which returned 3.5% over the past year.
Return vs Market: PGR exceeded the US Market which returned -8.1% over the past year.
Price Volatility
| PGR volatility | |
|---|---|
| PGR Average Weekly Movement | 4.2% |
| Insurance Industry Average Movement | 5.1% |
| Market Average Movement | 7.8% |
| 10% most volatile stocks in US Market | 16.9% |
| 10% least volatile stocks in US Market | 2.9% |
Stable Share Price: PGR is less volatile than 75% of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 4% a week.
Volatility Over Time: PGR's weekly volatility (4%) has been stable over the past year.
About the Company
| Founded | Employees | CEO | Website |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1937 | 49,077 | Tricia Griffith | https://www.progressive.com |
The Progressive Corporation, an insurance holding company, provides personal and commercial auto, personal residential and commercial property, general liability, and other specialty property-casualty insurance products and related services in the United States. It operates in three segments: Personal Lines, Commercial Lines, and Property. The Personal Lines segment writes insurance for personal autos and recreational vehicles (RV).
Progressive Fundamentals Summary
| PGR fundamental statistics | |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | US$65.03b |
| Earnings (TTM) | US$2.16b |
| Revenue (TTM) | US$48.07b |
30.3x
P/E Ratio1.4x
P/S RatioIs PGR overvalued?
See Fair Value and valuation analysisEarnings & Revenue
| PGR income statement (TTM) | |
|---|---|
| Revenue | US$48.07b |
| Cost of Revenue | US$44.86b |
| Gross Profit | US$3.22b |
| Other Expenses | US$1.06b |
| Earnings | US$2.16b |
Last Reported Earnings
Mar 31, 2022
Next Earnings Date
May 18, 2022
| Earnings per share (EPS) | 3.69 |
| Gross Margin | 6.69% |
| Net Profit Margin | 4.49% |
| Debt/Equity Ratio | 37.4% |
How did PGR perform over the long term?
See historical performance and comparisonDividends
1.7%
Current Dividend Yield51%
Payout RatioValuation
Is Progressive undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
3/6Valuation Score 3/6
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PE vs Industry
PE vs Market
PEG Ratio
PB vs Industry
22.3%
Undervalued compared to fair value
Share Price vs. Fair Value
Below Fair Value: PGR ($111.9) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($143.95)
Significantly Below Fair Value: PGR is trading below fair value by more than 20%.
Price To Earnings Ratio
PE vs Industry: PGR is poor value based on its PE Ratio (30.3x) compared to the US Insurance industry average (11.5x).
PE vs Market: PGR is poor value based on its PE Ratio (30.3x) compared to the US market (16x).
Price to Earnings Growth Ratio
PEG Ratio: PGR is good value based on its PEG Ratio (0.9x)
Price to Book Ratio
PB vs Industry: PGR is overvalued based on its PB Ratio (4x) compared to the US Insurance industry average (1.1x).
Future Growth
How is Progressive forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 9 analysts?
Future Growth Score
4/6Future Growth Score 4/6
Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE
33.1%
Forecasted annual earnings growth
Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: PGR's forecast earnings growth (33.1% per year) is above the savings rate (1.9%).
Earnings vs Market: PGR's earnings (33.1% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (12.4% per year).
High Growth Earnings: earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.
Revenue vs Market: PGR's revenue (9.9% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (7.8% per year).
High Growth Revenue: PGR's revenue (9.9% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: PGR's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (19.3%).
Past Performance
How has Progressive performed over the past 5 years?
Past Performance Score
2/6Past Performance Score 2/6
Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE
21.7%
Historical annual earnings growth
Earnings and Revenue History
Quality Earnings: PGR has high quality earnings.
Growing Profit Margin: PGR's current net profit margins (4.5%) are lower than last year (14.4%).
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: PGR's earnings have grown significantly by 21.7% per year over the past 5 years.
Accelerating Growth: PGR's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.
Earnings vs Industry: PGR had negative earnings growth (-66.6%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Insurance industry average (-2.6%).
Return on Equity
High ROE: PGR's Return on Equity (12.8%) is considered low.
Financial Health
How is Progressive's financial position?
Financial Health Score
4/6Financial Health Score 4/6
Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage
Financial Position Analysis
Short Term Liabilities: PGR's short term assets ($17.0B) do not cover its short term liabilities ($50.1B).
Long Term Liabilities: PGR's short term assets ($17.0B) exceed its long term liabilities ($6.7B).
Debt to Equity History and Analysis
Debt Level: PGR's net debt to equity ratio (32.7%) is considered satisfactory.
Reducing Debt: PGR's debt to equity ratio has increased from 34.5% to 37.4% over the past 5 years.
Debt Coverage: PGR's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (119.8%).
Interest Coverage: PGR's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (13.6x coverage).
Balance Sheet
Dividend
What is Progressive current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?
Dividend Score
4/6Dividend Score 4/6
Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage
1.70%
Current Dividend Yield
Dividend Yield vs Market
Notable Dividend: PGR's dividend (1.7%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.51%).
High Dividend: PGR's dividend (1.7%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (3.97%).
Stability and Growth of Payments
Stable Dividend: PGR's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.
Growing Dividend: PGR's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.
Earnings Payout to Shareholders
Earnings Coverage: With its reasonable payout ratio (51.5%), PGR's dividend payments are covered by earnings.
Cash Payout to Shareholders
Cash Flow Coverage: With its low cash payout ratio (15.1%), PGR's dividend payments are well covered by cash flows.
Next Steps
Management
How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?
5.8yrs
Average management tenure
CEO
Tricia Griffith (57 yo)
5.83yrs
Tenure
US$14,462,961
Compensation
Ms. Susan Patricia Griffith, also known as Tricia, has been the Chief Executive Officer and President of Progressive Corp. since July 1, 2016. Ms. Griffith serves as Director at Federal Express Corporation...
CEO Compensation Analysis
Compensation vs Market: Tricia's total compensation ($USD14.46M) is about average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD13.27M).
Compensation vs Earnings: Tricia's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.
Leadership Team
Experienced Management: PGR's management team is seasoned and experienced (5.8 years average tenure).
Board Members
Experienced Board: PGR's board of directors are considered experienced (6.7 years average tenure).
Ownership
Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?
Insider Trading Volume
Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.
Recent Insider Transactions
Ownership Breakdown
Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.
Top Shareholders
Company Information
The Progressive Corporation's employee growth, exchange listings and data sources
Key Information
- Name: The Progressive Corporation
- Ticker: PGR
- Exchange: NYSE
- Founded: 1937
- Industry: Property and Casualty Insurance
- Sector: Insurance
- Implied Market Cap: US$65.033b
- Shares outstanding: 584.88m
- Website: https://www.progressive.com
Number of Employees
Location
- The Progressive Corporation
- 6300 Wilson Mills Road
- Mayfield
- Ohio
- 44143
- United States
Listings
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2022/05/18 00:00 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2022/05/18 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2022/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2021/12/31 |
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.