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PGR

Progressive NYSE:PGR Stock Report

Last Price

US$107.82

Market Cap

US$63.1b

7D

-1.5%

1Y

0.7%

Updated

15 May, 2022

Data

Company Financials +
PGR fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation3/6
Future Growth4/6
Past Performance2/6
Financial Health4/6
Dividends4/6

PGR Stock Overview

The Progressive Corporation, an insurance holding company, provides personal and commercial auto, personal residential and commercial property, general liability, and other specialty property-casualty insurance products and related services in the United States.

Progressive Competitors

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Progressive
Historical stock prices
Current Share PriceUS$107.82
52 Week HighUS$120.17
52 Week LowUS$89.35
Beta0.50
1 Month Change-3.83%
3 Month Change1.52%
1 Year Change0.67%
3 Year Change38.73%
5 Year Change162.34%
Change since IPO9,981.87%

Recent News & Updates

May 06

LRT Capital - Progressive Corp: Unstoppable Cost Advantages

Progressive's sales model has allowed it to deliver industry leading combined ratios. The cost advantages conferred by the direct sales model are unstoppable. We believe the industry structure is going to evolve towards a duopoly with Progressive and GEICO as the two main players. An increase in interest rates will benefit PGR as the portfolio will relatively rapidly reprice into higher yielding securities.

Apr 07

The Progressive Corporation - An Outstanding Company At A Fair Price

Progressive is an outstanding insurer enjoying fast and profitable growth. Its current valuation of ~3.5 BV seems justified. Higher bond yields, continuing growth of Personal Auto, and the increasing importance of profitable Commercial Auto create a favorable outlook for the company.

Shareholder Returns

PGRUS InsuranceUS Market
7D-1.5%-2.2%-2.5%
1Y0.7%0.3%-10.4%

Return vs Industry: PGR matched the US Insurance industry which returned 0.3% over the past year.

Return vs Market: PGR exceeded the US Market which returned -10.4% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is PGR's price volatile compared to industry and market?
PGR volatility
PGR Average Weekly Movement4.1%
Insurance Industry Average Movement5.1%
Market Average Movement7.8%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market16.7%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market2.8%

Stable Share Price: PGR is less volatile than 75% of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 4% a week.

Volatility Over Time: PGR's weekly volatility (4%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

FoundedEmployeesCEOWebsite
193749,077Tricia Griffithhttps://www.progressive.com

The Progressive Corporation, an insurance holding company, provides personal and commercial auto, personal residential and commercial property, general liability, and other specialty property-casualty insurance products and related services in the United States. It operates in three segments: Personal Lines, Commercial Lines, and Property. The Personal Lines segment writes insurance for personal autos and recreational vehicles (RV).

Progressive Fundamentals Summary

How do Progressive's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
PGR fundamental statistics
Market CapUS$63.06b
Earnings (TTM)US$2.16b
Revenue (TTM)US$48.07b

29.2x

P/E Ratio

1.3x

P/S Ratio

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
PGR income statement (TTM)
RevenueUS$48.07b
Cost of RevenueUS$44.86b
Gross ProfitUS$3.22b
Other ExpensesUS$1.06b
EarningsUS$2.16b

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

May 18, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)3.69
Gross Margin6.69%
Net Profit Margin4.49%
Debt/Equity Ratio37.4%

How did PGR perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

1.8%

Current Dividend Yield

51%

Payout Ratio

Valuation

Is Progressive undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • PE vs Industry

  • PE vs Market

  • PEG Ratio

  • PB vs Industry


28.4%

Undervalued compared to fair value

Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: PGR ($107.82) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($150.59)

Significantly Below Fair Value: PGR is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: PGR is poor value based on its PE Ratio (29.2x) compared to the US Insurance industry average (11.2x).

PE vs Market: PGR is poor value based on its PE Ratio (29.2x) compared to the US market (15.5x).


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: PGR is good value based on its PEG Ratio (0.9x)


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: PGR is overvalued based on its PB Ratio (3.8x) compared to the US Insurance industry average (1x).


Future Growth

How is Progressive forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 11 analysts?

Future Growth Score

4/6

Future Growth Score 4/6

  • Earnings vs Savings Rate

  • Earnings vs Market

  • High Growth Earnings

  • Revenue vs Market

  • High Growth Revenue

  • Future ROE


33.7%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: PGR's forecast earnings growth (33.7% per year) is above the savings rate (1.9%).

Earnings vs Market: PGR's earnings (33.7% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (12.6% per year).

High Growth Earnings: earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: PGR's revenue (9.4% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (8% per year).

High Growth Revenue: PGR's revenue (9.4% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: PGR's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (19.3%).


Past Performance

How has Progressive performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

2/6

Past Performance Score 2/6

  • Quality Earnings

  • Growing Profit Margin

  • Earnings Trend

  • Accelerating Growth

  • Earnings vs Industry

  • High ROE


21.7%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: PGR has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: PGR's current net profit margins (4.5%) are lower than last year (14.4%).


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: PGR's earnings have grown significantly by 21.7% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: PGR's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: PGR had negative earnings growth (-66.6%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Insurance industry average (-2.6%).


Return on Equity

High ROE: PGR's Return on Equity (12.8%) is considered low.


Financial Health

How is Progressive's financial position?

Financial Health Score

4/6

Financial Health Score 4/6

  • Short Term Liabilities

  • Long Term Liabilities

  • Debt Level

  • Reducing Debt

  • Debt Coverage

  • Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: PGR's short term assets ($17.0B) do not cover its short term liabilities ($50.1B).

Long Term Liabilities: PGR's short term assets ($17.0B) exceed its long term liabilities ($6.7B).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: PGR's net debt to equity ratio (32.7%) is considered satisfactory.

Reducing Debt: PGR's debt to equity ratio has increased from 34.5% to 37.4% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: PGR's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (119.8%).

Interest Coverage: PGR's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (13.6x coverage).


Balance Sheet


Dividend

What is Progressive current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

4/6

Dividend Score 4/6

  • Notable Dividend

  • High Dividend

  • Stable Dividend

  • Growing Dividend

  • Earnings Coverage

  • Future Dividend Coverage


1.76%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: PGR's dividend (1.76%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.54%).

High Dividend: PGR's dividend (1.76%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (4.05%).


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: PGR's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: PGR's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.


Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its reasonable payout ratio (51.5%), PGR's dividend payments are covered by earnings.


Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its low cash payout ratio (15.1%), PGR's dividend payments are well covered by cash flows.


Next Steps

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

5.8yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Tricia Griffith (57 yo)

5.83yrs

Tenure

US$14,462,961

Compensation

Ms. Susan Patricia Griffith, also known as Tricia, has been the Chief Executive Officer and President of Progressive Corp. since July 1, 2016. Ms. Griffith serves as Director at Federal Express Corporation...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Tricia's total compensation ($USD14.46M) is about average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD13.26M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Tricia's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.


Leadership Team

Experienced Management: PGR's management team is seasoned and experienced (5.8 years average tenure).


Board Members

Experienced Board: PGR's board of directors are considered experienced (6.7 years average tenure).


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

The Progressive Corporation's employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: The Progressive Corporation
  • Ticker: PGR
  • Exchange: NYSE
  • Founded: 1937
  • Industry: Property and Casualty Insurance
  • Sector: Insurance
  • Implied Market Cap: US$63.061b
  • Shares outstanding: 584.88m
  • Website: https://www.progressive.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • The Progressive Corporation
  • 6300 Wilson Mills Road
  • Mayfield
  • Ohio
  • 44143
  • United States

Listings


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2022/05/15 00:00
End of Day Share Price2022/05/13 00:00
Earnings2022/03/31
Annual Earnings2021/12/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.