Does MetLife’s US$10 Billion Annuity Reinsurance Shift Redefine The Bull Case For MET?

• MetLife recently completed a US$10.00 billion reinsurance transaction with Talcott Resolution Life Insurance Company, transferring a block of U.S. retail variable annuity and rider reserves to improve capital efficiency and financial flexibility.
• This move, alongside solid third-quarter 2025 results featuring robust investment income and strong Asia sales, highlights MetLife’s push to sharpen its balance sheet while growing fee-oriented retirement and benefits businesses.
• We’ll now examine how this large reinsurance deal could reshape MetLife’s investment narrative, particularly its emphasis on asset-light, fee-based growth.

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MetLife Investment Narrative Recap

To own MetLife, you need to believe it can convert its global insurance and retirement footprint into steadier, capital-light earnings while managing credit and interest rate pressures. The US$10.0 billion variable annuity reinsurance deal fits this story by freeing up capital for fee-oriented lines, but it does not remove the key near term risk around commercial mortgage loan losses and related reserve needs.

Alongside the Talcott transaction, MetLife’s recent US$12.0 billion of new pension risk transfer mandates underline how the company is leaning into asset-light, fee-based retirement solutions as a growth engine. Together, these moves could make earnings less sensitive to spread income and reserve volatility, which matters if investment margins or Asia’s variable investment income stay uneven.

Yet, against this push toward asset-light growth, investors should still be aware of how commercial mortgage loan credit stress could...

Read the full narrative on MetLife (it's free!)

MetLife's narrative projects $83.8 billion revenue and $6.3 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 4.7% yearly revenue growth and a roughly $2.2 billion earnings increase from $4.1 billion today.

Uncover how MetLife's forecasts yield a $93.00 fair value, a 18% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Three members of the Simply Wall St Community currently see MetLife’s fair value between US$91 and about US$147, showing a wide span of opinions. You can set those views against the recent focus on asset-light, fee-based expansion, which could matter if investment income or credit quality move in ways that challenge today’s earnings mix.

Explore 3 other fair value estimates on MetLife - why the stock might be worth just $91.00!

Build Your Own MetLife Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your MetLife research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free MetLife research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate MetLife's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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