Is Chubb’s (CB) Aggressive Buyback and Earnings Jump Shifting Its Investment Narrative?

• Chubb Limited reported strong third-quarter 2025 results, posting net income of US$2.80 billion versus US$2.32 billion a year earlier, and completed a US$1.23 billion buyback of 4.43 million shares.
• This performance builds on Chubb’s long-standing track record of increasing shareholder returns, underpinned by disciplined risk management and consistent capital deployment.
• We'll explore how Chubb’s significant buyback program and earnings growth influence its updated investment narrative and future outlook.

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Chubb Investment Narrative Recap

To be a shareholder in Chubb, you have to believe in its ability to keep delivering consistent earnings growth and shareholder returns in a highly competitive global insurance market. The latest strong earnings and completed US$1.23 billion share buyback support this view, but do not materially alter the short-term catalyst, continued premium growth in international markets, nor do they eliminate the biggest risk: pressure on margins from rate competition and rising claims costs.

Of the recent developments, the completed share repurchase of over 4.4 million shares stands out, reinforcing Chubb’s focus on capital returns and EPS growth. While this supports the investment thesis, it does not fully address ongoing risks from price softness and rising loss costs, which remain important variables for the future.

However, investors should be aware that rising litigation costs and social inflation could pressure results even as share buybacks continue to boost earnings per share...

Read the full narrative on Chubb (it's free!)

Chubb's narrative projects $49.6 billion revenue and $9.8 billion earnings by 2028. This requires a 4.8% annual revenue decline and a $0.6 billion increase in earnings from $9.2 billion.

Uncover how Chubb's forecasts yield a $306.64 fair value, a 10% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Eight fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community range from US$247.08 to US$657.40 per share. As many see strong premium growth as a key driver for Chubb, these varied opinions highlight how sharply the outlook can differ across the market.

Explore 8 other fair value estimates on Chubb - why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!

Build Your Own Chubb Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Chubb research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Chubb research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Chubb's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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