Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for NYSE:ATH using Excess Returns Model Model
The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for Athene Holding is arrived at using the Excess Return Model. This approach is used for finance firms where free cash flow is difficult to estimate.
In the Excess Return Model the value of a firm can be written as the sum of capital invested currently in the firm and the present value of excess returns that the firm expects to make in the future.
The model is sensitive to the Return on Equity of the company versus the Cost of Equity, how these are calculated is detailed below the main calculation.
Amount off the current price
is available for.
Share price is
vs Future cash flow value of
Current Discount Checks
to be considered undervalued it must be available for at least 20% below the
current price. Less than 40% is even better.
Athene Holding's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a moderate discount (> 20%).
Athene Holding's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a substantial discount (> 40%).
PRICE RELATIVE TO MARKET
We can also value a company based on what the stock market is willing to pay for
it. This is similar to the price of fruit (e.g. Mangoes or Avocados) increasing
when they are out of season, or how much your home is worth.
The amount the stock market is willing to pay for
is considered below, and whether this is a fair price.
Price based on past earnings
Athene Holding's earnings available for a low price, and how does
this compare to other companies in the same industry?
Athene Holding's earnings are expected to grow by 1.5% yearly, however this is not considered high growth (20% yearly).
Athene Holding's revenue is expected to decrease over the next 1-3 years, this is not considered high growth.
Past and Future Earnings per Share
The accuracy of the analysts who estimate the future performance data can
be gauged below. We look back 3 years and see if they were any good at
predicting what actually occurred. We also show the highest and lowest estimates
looking forward to see if there is a wide range.
Athene Holding's performance over the past 5 years by checking for:
Has earnings increased in past 5 years? (1 check)
Has the earnings growth in the last year exceeded that of the
industry? (1 check)
Is the recent earnings growth over the last year higher than the average annual growth over the
past 5 years? (1 check)
Is the Return on Equity (ROE) higher than 20%? (1 check)
Is the Return on Assets (ROA) above industry average? (1 check)
Has the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) increased from 3 years ago? (1 check)
The above checks will fail if the company has reported a loss in the most recent
earnings report. Some checks require at least 3 or 5 years worth of data.
has a total score of
3/6, see the detailed checks below.
Note: We use GAAP Net Income excluding extraordinary items in all our calculations.
Management is one of the most important areas of a company. We look at
unreasonable CEO compensation, how long the team and board of directors have
been around for and insider trading.
TENURE AS CEO
Mr. James Richard Belardi, also known as Jim, Co-Founded Athene Holding Ltd. (“AHL”) in 2008 and has been its Chief Executive Officer, Chief Investment Officer, and Chairman since May 2009. Mr. Belardi is responsible for the day-to-day management of investment portfolio at AHL. Mr. Belardi served as Chief Executive Officer and Director at Athene Annuity & Life Assurance Company of New York. He also served as the Chief Executive Officer at Athene Annuity & Life Assurance Company. He serves as the Chief Executive Officer, Chief Investment Officer, and Chairman of Athene Asset Management, L.P. He served as Senior Vice President of SunAmerica Annuity and Life Assurance Company since 1994. Mr. Belardi served as the Chief Investment Officer at AIG Retirement Services, Inc., where he worked till June 2006. He served as Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President till 2006 at SAFG Retirement Services, Inc. Mr. Belardi served as a Senior Vice President and Treasurer at Sunamerica Inc. from 1992 to 1995. He was a Senior Vice President at AIG Sunamerica Life Assurance Company since 1994. Mr. Belardi served as the President at SunAmerica Life Insurance Company, which he joined in 1986. He served on the Board of Directors of SunAmerica Annuity and Life Assurance Company. He currently serves on the Board of Directors of AAM. He is a Director of Loyola Marymount University, Paulist Productions, Aris Mortgage Holding Company LLC, and Southern California Aquatics. Mr. Belardi served as a Director of First SunAmerica Life Insurance Co. since 2002. He received his Master of Business Administration from the University of California, Los Angeles and his Bachelor of Arts degree in Economics from Stanford University. Mr. Belardi swam in the 1976 and 1980 Olympic Swimming Trials and is a nine-time Masters Swimming World Record Holder.
Jim's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.
Jim's remuneration is lower than average for companies of similar size in United States of America.
Management Team Tenure
Average tenure and age of the
management team in years:
The tenure for the Athene Holding management team is about average.
Executive VP & CFO
Executive VP of Athene and CEO & President of Athene USA
Executive VP & Chief Risk Officer
Executive VP & Chief Information Officer
Head of Investor Relations
Executive VP & General Counsel
Board of Directors Tenure
Average tenure and age of the
board of directors in years:
The tenure for the Athene Holding board of directors is about average.
Can Athene Holding Ltd. (NYSE:ATH) Save Your Portfolio?
Today I want to bring to light the market's darling - Athene Holding Ltd.. … Looking at its size, financial health and track record, I believe there's an opportunity with Athene Holding during these volatile times. … Athene Holding Ltd., a retirement services company, issues, reinsures, and acquires retirement savings products in the United States and Bermuda
How Many Insiders Sold Athene Holding Ltd. (NYSE:ATH) Shares?
We've lost count of how many times insiders have accumulated shares in a company that goes on to improve markedly. … So shareholders might well want to know whether insiders have been buying or selling shares in Athene Holding Ltd. … So we know that an insider sold shares at around the present share price of US$43.69
Has Athene Holding Ltd (NYSE:ATH) Improved Earnings Growth In Recent Times?
After looking at Athene Holding Ltd's (NYSE:ATH) latest earnings announcement (30 September 2018), I found it useful to revisit the company's performance in the past couple of years and assess this against the most recent figures. … Check out our latest analysis for Athene Holding. … However, this one-year growth rate has been lower than its average earnings growth rate over the past 5 years of 22%, indicating the rate at which ATH is growing has slowed down
Athene Holding Ltd (NYSE:ATH): Is Growth Priced In?
Athene Holding Ltd (NYSE:ATH) is a stock well-positioned for future growth, but many investors are wondering whether its last closing price of $44.53 is based on unrealistic expectations. … View our latest analysis for Athene Holding? … Analysts are predicting good growth prospects for Athene Holding over the next couple of years
Athene Holding Ltd (NYSE:ATH): Commentary On Fundamentals
Athene Holding Ltd (NYSE:ATH) is a stock with outstanding fundamental characteristics. … When we build an investment case, we need to look at the stock with a holistic perspective. … report on Athene Holding here
Does Athene Holding Ltd's (NYSE:ATH) Recent Track Record Look Strong?
Measuring Athene Holding Ltd's (NYSE:ATH) track record of past performance is an insightful exercise for investors. … Below, I will assess ATH's recent performance announced on 31 March 2018 and compare these figures to its historical trend and industry movements. … ATH's trailing twelve-month earnings (from 31 March 2018) of US$1.33b has
Is Athene Holding Ltd's (NYSE:ATH) PE Ratio A Signal To Buy For Investors?
and want to start learning about core concepts of fundamental analysis on practical examples from today's market. … Although some investors may jump to the conclusion that this is a great buying opportunity, understanding the assumptions behind the P/E ratio might change your mind. … View our latest analysis for Athene Holding
Athene Holding Ltd., a retirement services company, issues, reinsures, and acquires retirement savings products in the United States and Bermuda. It offers fixed deferred, immediate, and payout annuities; and funding agreements and pension risk transfer products to institutional investors. The company’s products are designed for individuals and institutions seeking to fund retirement needs. Athene Holding Ltd. was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Pembroke, Bermuda.
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