How Investors May Respond To AIG (AIG) Dividend Hike, Share Buyback, and Earnings Growth

• On November 4, 2025, American International Group’s Board declared a quarterly dividend of US$0.45 per share, announced third quarter results with net income of US$519 million up from US$459 million a year ago, and completed a US$1.23 billion share buyback for 15.44 million shares.
• Alongside operational improvements, AIG’s ongoing capital return through dividends and buybacks reflects a commitment to creating shareholder value and financial strength.
• Given the significant share repurchase, we’ll explore how these capital return actions align with AIG’s long-term investment narrative and future growth outlook.

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American International Group Investment Narrative Recap

Owning AIG shares means believing in its ability to boost earnings through operational improvements, disciplined capital allocation, and a focus on streamlining its insurance operations. The most recent dividend increase and buyback program reinforce the company’s shareholder focus, but the short-term outlook still hinges on AIG’s ability to manage underwriting risks, with climate change and reserve adequacy as pressing concerns. For now, these latest announcements do not materially alter the largest catalyst, demonstrating sustained profitability and earnings stability from its core insurance businesses.

The Q3 earnings update stands out, showing higher net income and earnings per share despite a dip in revenue year over year. This profitability improvement, paired with consistent shareholder returns, strengthens AIG’s capital position and supports the business transformation narrative, but investors should continue monitoring the quality and sources of these earnings to gauge the sustainability of recent performance gains. In contrast, what may not be visible at first glance is how vulnerable AIG’s concentrated portfolio could leave it if severe CAT losses spike...

Read the full narrative on American International Group (it's free!)

American International Group's outlook projects $31.3 billion in revenue and $3.8 billion in earnings by 2028. This is based on a 4.5% annual revenue growth rate and a $0.5 billion increase in earnings from the current $3.3 billion level.

Uncover how American International Group's forecasts yield a $88.28 fair value, a 13% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

The Simply Wall St Community’s fair value estimates for AIG span from US$88.28 to US$142.43 across five views, reflecting substantial differences in growth expectations and risk tolerance. Against this backdrop, ongoing concerns about AIG’s exposure to catastrophe losses may prove influential, so readers are encouraged to consider a variety of perspectives before making up their minds.

Explore 5 other fair value estimates on American International Group - why the stock might be worth as much as 82% more than the current price!

Build Your Own American International Group Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your American International Group research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free American International Group research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate American International Group's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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