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Assured Guaranty

NYSE:AGO
Snowflake Description

Undervalued established dividend payer.

The Snowflake is generated from 30 checks in 5 different areas, read more below.
AGO
NYSE
$4B
Market Cap
  1. Home
  2. US
  3. Insurance
Company description

Assured Guaranty Ltd., through its subsidiaries, provides credit protection products to public finance, infrastructure, and structured finance markets in the United States and internationally. The last earnings update was 97 days ago. More info.


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AGO Share Price and Events
7 Day Returns
-0.1%
NYSE:AGO
1%
US Insurance
0.5%
US Market
1 Year Returns
11.8%
NYSE:AGO
-0.4%
US Insurance
2%
US Market
AGO Shareholder Return
  7 Day 30 Day 90 Day 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year
Assured Guaranty (AGO) -0.1% 4.5% 2.1% 11.8% 70.4% 77.1%
US Insurance 1% 6.8% 3% -0.4% 36.5% 39.8%
US Market 0.5% 6.3% 1.9% 2% 45.1% 40.5%
1 Year Return vs Industry and Market
  • AGO outperformed the Insurance industry which returned -0.4% over the past year.
  • AGO outperformed the Market in United States of America which returned 2% over the past year.
Price Volatility
AGO
Industry
5yr Volatility vs Market
Related Companies

AGO Value

 Is Assured Guaranty undervalued based on future cash flows and its price relative to the stock market?

Value is all about what a company is worth versus what price it is available for. If you went into a grocery store and all the bananas were on sale at half price, they could be considered undervalued.
INTRINSIC VALUE BASED ON FUTURE CASH FLOWS
Here we compare the current share price of Assured Guaranty to its discounted cash flow analysis.value.

The discounted cash flow value is simply looking at what the company is worth today, based on estimates of how much money it is expected to make in the future.
Raw Data

Below are the data sources, inputs and calculation used to determine the intrinsic value for Assured Guaranty.

NYSE:AGO Discounted Cash Flow Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Valuation Model Excess Returns Model
Stable EPS Median Return on Equity from the past 5 years.
= Stable Book Value * Return on Equity
= $69.58 * 13.3%
$9.24
Book Value of Equity per Share Weighted future Book Value estimates from 3 analysts. $69.58
Discount Rate (Cost of Equity) See below 9.4%
Perpetual Growth Rate 10-Year US Government Bond Rate 2.7%

An important part of a discounted cash flow is the discount rate, below we explain how it has been calculated.

Calculation of Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity for NYSE:AGO
Data Point Calculation/ Source Result
Risk-Free Rate 10-Year US Govt Bond Rate 2.7%
Equity Risk Premium S&P Global 7.3%
Insurance Unlevered Beta Simply Wall St/ S&P Global 0.74
Re-levered Beta = Unlevered beta (1 + (1- tax rate) (Debt/Equity))
= 0.743 (1 + (1- 21%) (29.03%))
0.914
Levered Beta Levered Beta limited to 0.8 to 2.0
(practical range for a stable firm)
0.91
Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity = Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate + (Levered Beta * Equity Risk Premium)
= 2.73% + (0.914 * 7.27%)
9.37%

Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for NYSE:AGO using Excess Returns Model Model

The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for Assured Guaranty is arrived at using the Excess Return Model. This approach is used for finance firms where free cash flow is difficult to estimate.

In the Excess Return Model the value of a firm can be written as the sum of capital invested currently in the firm and the present value of excess returns that the firm expects to make in the future.

The model is sensitive to the Return on Equity of the company versus the Cost of Equity, how these are calculated is detailed below the main calculation.

Note the calculations below are per share.

See our documentation to learn about this calculation.

NYSE:AGO Value of Excess Returns
Calculation Result
Excess Returns = (Stable Return on equity – Cost of equity) (Book Value of Equity per share)
= (13.3% – 9.37%) * $69.58)
$2.72
Terminal Value of Excess Returns = Excess Returns / (Cost of Equity - Expected Growth Rate)
= $2.72 / (9.37% - 2.73%)
$40.92
Value of Equity = Book Value per share + Terminal Value of Excess Returns
= $69.58 + $40.92
$110.5
NYSE:AGO Discount to Share Price
Calculation Result
Value per share (USD) From above. $110.50
Current discount Discount to share price of $40.73
= -1 x ($40.73 - $110.50) / $110.50
63.1%

Learn more about our DCF calculations in Simply Wall St’s analysis model .

Current Discount
Amount off the current price Assured Guaranty is available for.
Intrinsic value
>50%
Share price is $40.73 vs Future cash flow value of $110.5
Current Discount Checks
For Assured Guaranty to be considered undervalued it must be available for at least 20% below the current price. Less than 40% is even better.
  • Assured Guaranty's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a moderate discount (> 20%).
  • Assured Guaranty's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a substantial discount (> 40%).
PRICE RELATIVE TO MARKET
We can also value a company based on what the stock market is willing to pay for it. This is similar to the price of fruit (e.g. Mangoes or Avocados) increasing when they are out of season, or how much your home is worth.

The amount the stock market is willing to pay for Assured Guaranty's earnings, growth and assets is considered below, and whether this is a fair price.
Price based on past earnings
Are Assured Guaranty's earnings available for a low price, and how does this compare to other companies in the same industry?
Raw Data
NYSE:AGO PE (Price to Earnings) Ratio Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Earnings Per Share * Company Filings (2018-09-30) in USD $4.29
NYSE:AGO Share Price ** NYSE (2019-02-13) in USD $40.73
United States of America Insurance Industry PE Ratio Median Figure of 93 Publicly-Listed Insurance Companies 16.71x
United States of America Market PE Ratio Median Figure of 3,046 Publicly-Listed Companies 16.95x

* Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual GAAP earnings per share excluding extraordinary items.

** Primary Listing of Assured Guaranty.

NYSE:AGO PE (Price to Earnings) Ratio Calculation
Calculation Outcome
PE Ratio

= NYSE:AGO Share Price ÷ EPS (both in USD)

= 40.73 ÷ 4.29

9.51x

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Assured Guaranty is good value based on earnings compared to the US Insurance industry average.
  • Assured Guaranty is good value based on earnings compared to the United States of America market.
Price based on expected Growth
Does Assured Guaranty's expected growth come at a high price?
Raw Data
NYSE:AGO PEG (Price to Earnings to Growth) Ratio Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
PE Ratio See PE Ratio Section 9.51x
Net Income Annual Growth Rate See Future Growth Section.
Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Earnings of 4 Analysts
-20%per year
United States of America Insurance Industry PEG Ratio Median Figure of 67 Publicly-Listed Insurance Companies 0.99x
United States of America Market PEG Ratio Median Figure of 2,117 Publicly-Listed Companies 1.36x

*Line of best fit is calculated by linear regression .

NYSE:AGO PEG (Price to Earnings to Growth) Ratio Calculation
Calculation Outcome
PEG Ratio

= PE Ratio ÷ Net Income Annual Growth Rate

= 9.51x ÷ -20%

-0.48x

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Assured Guaranty earnings are not expected to grow next year, we can't assess if its growth is good value.
Price based on value of assets
What value do investors place on Assured Guaranty's assets?
Raw Data
NYSE:AGO PB (Price to Book) Ratio Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Book Value per Share Company Filings (2018-09-30) in USD $61.73
NYSE:AGO Share Price * NYSE (2019-02-13) in USD $40.73
United States of America Insurance Industry PB Ratio Median Figure of 116 Publicly-Listed Insurance Companies 1.29x
United States of America Market PB Ratio Median Figure of 5,122 Publicly-Listed Companies 1.81x
NYSE:AGO PB (Price to Book) Ratio Calculation
Calculation Outcome
PB Ratio

= NYSE:AGO Share Price ÷ Book Value per Share (both in USD)

= 40.73 ÷ 61.73

0.66x

* Primary Listing of Assured Guaranty.

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Assured Guaranty is good value based on assets compared to the US Insurance industry average.
X
Value checks
We assess Assured Guaranty's value by looking at:
  1. Is the discounted cash flow value less than 20%, or 40% of the share price? (2 checks) ( Click here or on bar chart for details of DCF calculation. )
  2. Is the PE ratio less than the market average, and/ or less than the Insurance industry average (and greater than 0)? (2 checks)
  3. Is the PEG ratio within a reasonable range (0 to 1)? (1 check)
  4. Is the PB ratio less than the Insurance industry average (and greater than 0)? (1 check)
  5. Assured Guaranty has a total score of 5/6, see the detailed checks below.

    Note: We use GAAP Earnings per Share in all our calculations including PE and PEG Ratio.

    Full details on the Value part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

AGO Future Performance

 How is Assured Guaranty expected to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 4 analysts?

The future performance of a company is measured in the same way as past performance, by looking at estimated growth and how much profit it is expected to make.

Future estimates come from professional analysts. Just like forecasting the weather, they don’t always get it right!
Annual Growth Rate
-20%
Expected annual growth in earnings.
Earnings growth vs Low Risk Savings
Is Assured Guaranty expected to grow at an attractive rate?
  • Assured Guaranty's earnings are expected to decrease over the next 1-3 years, this is below the low risk savings rate of 2.7%.
Growth vs Market Checks
  • Assured Guaranty's earnings are expected to decrease over the next 1-3 years, this is below the United States of America market average.
  • Assured Guaranty's revenues are expected to decrease over the next 1-3 years, this is below the United States of America market average.
Annual Growth Rates Comparison
Raw Data
NYSE:AGO Future Growth Rates Data Sources
Data Point Source Value (per year)
NYSE:AGO Future Earnings Growth Rate Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Earnings of 4 Analysts -20%
NYSE:AGO Future Revenue Growth Rate Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Revenue of 4 Analysts -6.7%
United States of America Insurance Industry Earnings Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 17.8%
United States of America Insurance Industry Revenue Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 2.9%
United States of America Market Earnings Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 13.4%
United States of America Market Revenue Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 7.1%

*Line of best fit is calculated by linear regression .

Industry and Market average data is calculated daily.

Learn more about our growth rate calculations in Simply Wall St’s analysis model.

Analysts growth expectations
Raw Data
NYSE:AGO Analysts Growth Expectations Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Past Financials Company Filings (4 months ago) See Below
Future Estimates Average of up to 4 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See Below
All numbers in USD Millions and using Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.
NYSE:AGO Future Estimates Data
Date (Data in USD Millions) Revenue Cash Flow Net Income * Avg. No. Analysts
2020-12-31 905 379 3
2019-12-31 893 312 4
2018-12-31 998 517 4
NYSE:AGO Past Financials Data
Date (Data in USD Millions) Revenue Cash Flow Net Income *
2018-09-30 1,112 431 484
2018-06-30 1,423 679 531
2018-03-31 1,452 358 608
2017-12-31 1,633 433 729
2017-09-30 1,839 411 874
2017-06-30 1,799 113 1,144
2017-03-31 1,663 60 1,139
2016-12-31 1,451 -132 880
2016-09-30 1,749 -202 1,111
2016-06-30 1,559 -204 762
2016-03-31 1,873 -165 912
2015-12-31 2,008 -71 1,055

*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.

Super high growth metrics
High Growth Checks
  • Assured Guaranty's earnings are expected to decrease over the next 1-3 years, this is not considered high growth.
  • Assured Guaranty's revenue is expected to decrease over the next 1-3 years, this is not considered high growth.
Past and Future Earnings per Share
The accuracy of the analysts who estimate the future performance data can be gauged below. We look back 3 years and see if they were any good at predicting what actually occurred. We also show the highest and lowest estimates looking forward to see if there is a wide range.
Raw Data
NYSE:AGO Past and Future Earnings per Share
Data Point Source Value
Past Financials Company Filings (4 months ago) See Below
Future Estimates Average of up to 4 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See Below

All data from Assured Guaranty Company Filings, last reported 4 months ago, and in Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.

NYSE:AGO Future Estimates Data
Date (Data in USD Millions) EPS * EPS High Estimate EPS Low Estimate Avg. No. Analysts
2020-12-31 3.30 4.10 2.49 2.00
2019-12-31 2.79 3.10 2.28 3.00
2018-12-31 4.53 4.68 4.34 3.00
NYSE:AGO Past Financials Data
Date (Data in USD Millions) EPS *
2018-09-30 4.29
2018-06-30 4.59
2018-03-31 5.15
2017-12-31 6.04
2017-09-30 7.06
2017-06-30 9.00
2017-03-31 8.74
2016-12-31 6.62
2016-09-30 8.19
2016-06-30 5.48
2016-03-31 6.37
2015-12-31 7.12

*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.

Performance in 3 years
In the same way as past performance we look at the future estimated return (profit) compared to the available funds. We do this looking forward 3 years.
  • Assured Guaranty is not expected to efficiently use shareholders’ funds in the future (Return on Equity less than 20%).
X
Future performance checks
We assess Assured Guaranty's future performance by looking at:
  1. Is the annual earnings growth rate expected to beat the low risk savings rate, plus a premium to keep pace with inflation?
  2. Is the annual earnings growth rate expected to beat the average growth rate in earnings of the United States of America market? (1 check)
  3. Is the annual revenue growth rate expected to beat the average growth rate in revenue of the United States of America market? (1 check)
  4. Is the annual earnings growth rate expected to be above 20%? (1 check)
  5. Is the annual revenue growth rate expected to be above 20%? (1 check)
  6. Is the Return on Equity in 3 years expected to be over 20%? (1 check)
Some of the above checks will fail if the company is expected to be loss making in the relevant year.
Assured Guaranty has a total score of 0/6, see the detailed checks below.

Note 1: We use GAAP Net Income Excluding Exceptional Items for our Earnings in all our calculations.

Full details on the Future part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

AGO Past Performance

  How has Assured Guaranty performed over the past 5 years?

The past performance of a company can be measured by how much growth it has experienced and how much profit it makes relative to the funds and assets it has available.
Past earnings growth
Below we compare Assured Guaranty's growth in the last year to its industry (Insurance).
Past Earnings growth analysis
We also check if the company has grown in the past 5 years, and whether it has maintained that growth in the year.
  • Assured Guaranty's year on year earnings growth rate was negative over the past 5 years and the most recent earnings are below average.
  • Assured Guaranty's 1-year earnings growth is negative, it can't be compared to the 5-year average.
  • Assured Guaranty's 1-year earnings growth is negative, it can't be compared to the US Insurance industry average.
Earnings and Revenue History
Assured Guaranty's revenue and profit over the past 5 years is shown below, any years where they have experienced a loss will show up in red.
Raw Data

All data from Assured Guaranty Company Filings, last reported 4 months ago, and in Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.

NYSE:AGO Past Revenue, Cash Flow and Net Income Data
Date (Data in USD Millions) Revenue Net Income * G+A Expenses R&D Expenses
2018-09-30 1,112.00 484.00
2018-06-30 1,423.00 531.00
2018-03-31 1,452.00 608.00
2017-12-31 1,633.00 729.00
2017-09-30 1,839.00 874.00
2017-06-30 1,799.00 1,144.00
2017-03-31 1,663.00 1,139.00
2016-12-31 1,451.00 880.00
2016-09-30 1,749.00 1,111.00
2016-06-30 1,559.00 762.00
2016-03-31 1,873.00 912.00
2015-12-31 2,008.00 1,055.00
2015-09-30 2,158.60 1,159.00
2015-06-30 2,323.70 1,385.00
2015-03-31 2,203.20 1,247.00
2014-12-31 2,015.00 1,088.00
2014-09-30 1,602.40 904.00
2014-06-30 1,715.30 933.00
2014-03-31 2,075.80 993.00
2013-12-31 1,602.00 807.00
2013-09-30 1,306.00 534.00
2013-06-30 982.00 291.00
2013-03-31 1,025.00 449.00
2012-12-31 932.00 110.00
2012-09-30 792.00 -49.00
2012-06-30 1,815.00 570.00
2012-03-31 1,186.99 149.94

*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.

Performance last year
We want to ensure a company is making the most of what it has available. This is done by comparing the return (profit) to a company's available funds, assets and capital.
  • Assured Guaranty has not efficiently used shareholders’ funds last year (Return on Equity less than 20%).
  • Assured Guaranty used its assets more efficiently than the US Insurance industry average last year based on Return on Assets.
  • Assured Guaranty's use of capital deteriorated last year versus 3 years ago (Return on Capital Employed).
X
Past performance checks
We assess Assured Guaranty's performance over the past 5 years by checking for:
  1. Has earnings increased in past 5 years? (1 check)
  2. Has the earnings growth in the last year exceeded that of the Insurance industry? (1 check)
  3. Is the recent earnings growth over the last year higher than the average annual growth over the past 5 years? (1 check)
  4. Is the Return on Equity (ROE) higher than 20%? (1 check)
  5. Is the Return on Assets (ROA) above industry average? (1 check)
  6. Has the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) increased from 3 years ago? (1 check)
The above checks will fail if the company has reported a loss in the most recent earnings report. Some checks require at least 3 or 5 years worth of data.
Assured Guaranty has a total score of 1/6, see the detailed checks below.

Note: We use GAAP Net Income excluding extraordinary items in all our calculations.

Full details on the Past part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

AGO Health

 How is Assured Guaranty's financial health and their level of debt?

A company's financial position is much like your own financial position, it includes everything you own (assets) and owe (liabilities).

The boxes below represent the relative size of what makes up Assured Guaranty's finances.

The net worth of a company is the difference between its assets and liabilities.
Net Worth
  • Assured Guaranty's short term (1 year) commitments are greater than its holdings of cash and other short term assets.
  • Assured Guaranty's long term commitments exceed its cash and other short term assets.
Balance sheet
This treemap shows a more detailed breakdown of Assured Guaranty's finances. If any of them are yellow this indicates they may be out of proportion and red means they relate to one of the checks below.
Assets
Liabilities and shares
The 'shares' portion represents any funds contributed by the owners (shareholders) and any profits.
  • Low level of unsold assets.
  • Debt is covered by short term assets, assets are 1.9x debt.
Historical Debt
Nearly all companies have debt. Debt in itself isn’t bad, however if the debt is too high, or the company can’t afford to pay the interest on its debts this may have impacts in the future.

The graphic below shows equity (available funds) and debt, we ideally want to see the red area (debt) decreasing.

If there is any debt we look at the companies capability to repay it, and whether the level has increased over the past 5 years.
Raw Data

All data from Assured Guaranty Company Filings, last reported 4 months ago.

NYSE:AGO Past Debt and Equity Data
Date (Data in USD Millions) Total Equity Total Debt Cash & Short Term Investments
2018-09-30 6,583.00 1,249.00 820.00
2018-06-30 6,634.00 1,264.00 1,096.00
2018-03-31 6,784.00 1,281.00 865.00
2017-12-31 6,839.00 1,292.00 771.00
2017-09-30 6,878.00 1,292.00 1,021.00
2017-06-30 6,750.00 1,294.00 878.00
2017-03-31 6,637.00 1,307.00 836.00
2016-12-31 6,504.00 1,306.00 708.00
2016-09-30 6,640.00 1,304.00 626.00
2016-06-30 6,250.00 1,303.00 775.00
2016-03-31 6,113.00 1,302.00 571.00
2015-12-31 6,063.00 1,300.00 562.00
2015-09-30 5,819.00 1,306.00 588.00
2015-06-30 5,806.00 1,305.00 909.00
2015-03-31 5,786.00 1,304.00 1,234.00
2014-12-31 5,758.00 1,297.00 842.00
2014-09-30 5,354.00 1,303.00 923.00
2014-06-30 5,242.00 1,311.00 1,104.00
2014-03-31 5,209.00 812.00 943.00
2013-12-31 5,115.00 816.00 1,088.00
2013-09-30 4,834.00 819.00 867.00
2013-06-30 4,484.00 827.00 1,086.00
2013-03-31 4,724.00 832.00 854.00
2012-12-31 4,994.00 836.00 1,046.00
2012-09-30 4,952.00 840.00 697.00
2012-06-30 4,724.07 846.35 1,095.13
2012-03-31 4,182.52 1,034.67 1,085.37
  • Assured Guaranty's level of debt (19%) compared to net worth is satisfactory (less than 40%).
  • The level of debt compared to net worth has increased over the past 5 years (16.9% vs 19% today).
  • Debt is well covered by operating cash flow (34.5%, greater than 20% of total debt).
  • Interest payments on debt are well covered by earnings (EBIT is 8.1x coverage).
X
Financial health checks
We assess Assured Guaranty's financial health by checking for:
  1. Are short term assets greater than short term liabilities? (1 check)
  2. Are short term assets greater than long term liabilities? (1 check)
  3. Has the debt to equity ratio increased in the past 5 years? (1 check)
  4. Is the debt to equity ratio over 40%? (1 check)
  5. Is the debt covered by operating cash flow? (1 check)
  6. Are earnings greater than 5x the interest on debt (if company pays interest at all)? (1 check)
  7. Assured Guaranty has a total score of 3/6, see the detailed checks below.
For companies that are loss making and have been so on average in the past we replace the last 2 checks with:
  1. Does cash and short term investments cover stable operating expenses (recurring G&A and R&D) for more than 3 years? (1 check)
  2. Does cash and short term investments cover growing operating expenses (recurring G&A and R&D) for more than 3 years? (1 check)


Full details on the Health part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

AGO Dividends

 What is Assured Guaranty's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividends are regular cash payments to you from the company, similar to a bank paying you interest on a savings account.
Annual Dividend Income
Dividend payments
1.57%
Current annual income from Assured Guaranty dividends. Estimated to be 1.52% next year.
If you bought $2,000 of Assured Guaranty shares you are expected to receive $31 in your first year as a dividend.
Dividend Amount
Here we look how much dividend is being paid, if any. Is it above what you can get in a savings account? It is up there with the best dividend paying companies?
  • Assured Guaranty's pays a higher dividend yield than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in United States of America (1.43%).
  • Assured Guaranty's dividend is below the markets top 25% of dividend payers in United States of America (3.62%).
Annualized Historical and Future Dividends
It is important to see if the dividend for a company is stable, and not wildly increasing/decreasing each year. This graph shows you the historical rate to count toward your assessment of the stock.

We also check to see if the dividend has increased in the past 10 years.
Raw Data
NYSE:AGO Annualized Past and Future Dividends
Data Point Source Value
Past Annualized Dividend Yield S&P Global Market Data See Below
Past Dividends per Share Company Filings/ Annualized Dividend Payments See Below
Future Dividends per Share Estimates Average of up to 4 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See Below
United States of America Insurance Industry Average Dividend Yield Market Cap Weighted Average of 80 Stocks 2.6%
United States of America Market Average Dividend Yield Market Cap Weighted Average of 1997 Stocks 2.5%
United States of America Minimum Threshold Dividend Yield 10th Percentile 0.8%
United States of America Bottom 25% Dividend Yield 25th Percentile 1.4%
United States of America Top 25% Dividend Yield 75th Percentile 3.6%

Industry and Market average data is calculated daily.

Note all dividend per share amounts are annualized and not quarterly or other period.

NYSE:AGO Future Dividends Estimate Data
Date (Data in $) Dividend per Share (annual) Avg. No. Analysts
2020-12-31 0.63 2.00
2019-12-31 0.61 2.00
2018-12-31 0.58 2.00
NYSE:AGO Past Annualized Dividends Data
Date (Data in $) Dividend per share (annual) Avg. Yield (%)
2018-11-07 0.640 1.621
2018-08-01 0.640 1.564
2018-05-02 0.640 1.756
2018-02-21 0.640 1.774
2017-11-01 0.570 1.611
2017-08-02 0.570 1.416
2017-05-03 0.570 1.378
2017-02-22 0.570 1.470
2016-11-02 0.520 1.384
2016-08-03 0.520 1.857
2016-05-04 0.520 2.002
2016-02-24 0.520 2.046
2015-11-04 0.480 1.900
2015-08-05 0.480 1.845
2015-05-06 0.480 1.797
2015-02-04 0.480 1.811
2014-11-05 0.440 1.736
2014-08-06 0.440 1.922
2014-05-07 0.440 1.814
2014-02-05 0.440 1.805
2013-11-07 0.400 1.761
2013-08-07 0.400 1.998
2013-05-08 0.400 1.765
2013-02-07 0.400 2.002
2012-11-08 0.360 2.442
2012-08-01 0.360 2.627
2012-05-09 0.360 2.911
2012-02-09 0.360 2.252
2011-11-03 0.180 1.388
2011-08-03 0.180 1.526
2011-05-04 0.180 1.145
2011-02-09 0.180 1.188
2010-11-03 0.180 1.026
2010-08-04 0.180 1.012
2010-05-06 0.180 1.177
2010-02-25 0.180 0.822
2009-11-05 0.180 0.834
2009-08-06 0.180 0.964
2009-05-07 0.180 1.370
2009-02-17 0.180 2.889

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Dividends per share have been stable in the past 10 years.
  • Dividends per share have increased over the past 10 years.
Current Payout to shareholders
What portion of Assured Guaranty's earnings are paid to the shareholders as a dividend.
  • Dividends paid are thoroughly covered by earnings (6.9x coverage).
Future Payout to shareholders
  • Dividends after 3 years are expected to be well covered by earnings (5.2x coverage).
X
Income/ dividend checks
We assess Assured Guaranty's dividend by checking for:
  1. Firstly is the company paying a notable dividend (greater than 0.8%) - if not then the rest of the checks are ignored.
  2. Is current dividend yield above the bottom 25% of dividend payers? (1 check)
  3. Is current dividend yield above the top 25% of dividend payers? (1 check)
  4. Have they paid a dividend for 10 years, and during this period has the dividend been volatile (drop of more than 25%)? (1 check)
  5. If they have paid a dividend for 10 years has it increased in this time? (1 check)
  6. How sustainable is the dividend, can Assured Guaranty afford to pay it from its earnings today and in 3 years (Payout ratio less than 90%)? (2 checks)
  7. Assured Guaranty has a total score of 5/6, see the detailed checks below.


Full details on the Dividends part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

AGO Management

 What is the CEO of Assured Guaranty's salary, the management and board of directors tenure and is there insider trading?

Management is one of the most important areas of a company. We look at unreasonable CEO compensation, how long the team and board of directors have been around for and insider trading.
CEO
Dominic Frederico
COMPENSATION $13,526,780
AGE 65
TENURE AS CEO 15.2 years
CEO Bio

Mr. Dominic John Frederico is the President and Chief Executive Officer of Assured Guaranty Ltd. since December 2003 and serves as its Deputy Chairman. Mr. Frederico serves as the Chief Executive Officer and President of Municipal Assurance Corporation. Mr. Frederico is the Chief Executive Officer, President and Chairman of the Board at Assured Guaranty Municipal Holdings Inc. since July 2009. He serves as the Chief Executive Officer and President of Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. Mr. Frederico serves as Chief Executive Officer of ACE Global Markets Ltd. and ACE US Holdings Inc. He serves as the Chief Executive Officer and President of Assured Guaranty Corp. He served as the President and Chief Operating Officer of ACE Ltd. from November 1999 to June 23, 2003. Mr. Frederico served as President of ACE Bermuda Insurance Ltd. from July 1997 to May 1999 and served as its Executive Vice President of Underwriting from December 1996 to July 1997 and Executive Vice President of Financial Lines from January 1995 to December 1996. He served as Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President of Chubb INA Holdings Inc. from May 1999 to May 2003. He served in various capacities at American International Group ('AIG') in Europe and the U.S. from 1982 to January 1995. He served as Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of AIG Risk Management, with multi-regional general management responsibilities. Mr. Frederico served as an Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of UNAT, a wholly owned subsidiary of AIG headquartered in Paris, France. He served as Chairman of the Board of Assured Guaranty Corp. He has been a Director at Assured Guaranty Ltd. since April 2004. Mr. Frederico spent 13 years working for various subsidiaries of American International Group. He served as Vice Chairman of ACE Ltd. from June 23, 2003 to April 2004. Mr. Frederico served as a Director of Chubb INA Holdings Inc. and Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. He has been a Director of Financial Security Assurance Holdings Ltd. since July 2009. Mr. Frederico serves as a Director of Integrated Finance Limited LLC and Assured Guaranty Re Ltd. He served as a Director of ACE Ltd. from November 16, 2001 to May 26, 2005.

CEO Compensation
  • Dominic's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.
  • Dominic's remuneration is higher than average for companies of similar size in United States of America.
Management Team Tenure

Average tenure and age of the Assured Guaranty management team in years:

9.3
Average Tenure
59.5
Average Age
  • The average tenure for the Assured Guaranty management team is over 5 years, this suggests they are a seasoned and experienced team.
Management Team

Dominic Frederico

TITLE
Deputy Chairman
COMPENSATION
$14M
AGE
65
TENURE
15.2 yrs

Rob Bailenson

TITLE
CFO & Chief Accounting Officer
COMPENSATION
$4M
AGE
52
TENURE
7.7 yrs

Russ Brewer

TITLE
Chief Surveillance Officer
COMPENSATION
$4M
AGE
61
TENURE
9.3 yrs

Bruce Stern

TITLE
Executive Officer of Government & Corporate Affairs
COMPENSATION
$3M
AGE
64
TENURE
9.6 yrs

Robert Tucker

TITLE
Senior Managing Director of Investor Relations & Corporate Communications
TENURE
7.7 yrs

Gon Chow

TITLE
General Counsel & Secretary
AGE
47
TENURE
1.1 yrs

Ivana Grillo

TITLE
Managing Director of Human Resources

Howard Albert

TITLE
Chief Risk Officer
COMPENSATION
$973K
AGE
58
TENURE
15.1 yrs

Dan Bevill

TITLE
Managing Director of Structured Finance

Dominic Nathan

TITLE
Managing Director of European Infrastructure Finance
Board of Directors Tenure

Average tenure and age of the Assured Guaranty board of directors in years:

5.8
Average Tenure
68
Average Age
  • The tenure for the Assured Guaranty board of directors is about average.
Board of Directors

Frank Borges

TITLE
Chairman of the Board
COMPENSATION
$506K
AGE
67
TENURE
3.8 yrs

Dominic Frederico

TITLE
Deputy Chairman
COMPENSATION
$14M
AGE
65

Pat Kenny

TITLE
Independent Director
COMPENSATION
$334K
AGE
75
TENURE
14.8 yrs

Michael O’Kane

TITLE
Independent Director
COMPENSATION
$319K
AGE
72
TENURE
13.5 yrs

George Buhl

TITLE
Independent Director
COMPENSATION
$336K
AGE
71
TENURE
14.8 yrs

Bonnie Howard

TITLE
Independent Director
COMPENSATION
$326K
AGE
64
TENURE
6.5 yrs

Simon Leathes

TITLE
Independent Director
COMPENSATION
$385K
AGE
70
TENURE
5.8 yrs

Yukiko Omura

TITLE
Independent Director
COMPENSATION
$295K
AGE
62
TENURE
4.8 yrs

Thomas Jones

TITLE
Independent Director
COMPENSATION
$327K
AGE
69
TENURE
3.5 yrs

Alan Kreczko

TITLE
Independent Director
COMPENSATION
$319K
AGE
66
TENURE
3.5 yrs
Who owns this company?
Recent Insider Trading
  • No 3 month insider trading information.
Recent Insider Transactions
Announced Type Name Entity Role Start End Shares Max Price ($) Value ($)
X
Management checks
We assess Assured Guaranty's management by checking for:
  1. Is the CEO's compensation unreasonable compared to market cap? (1 check)
  2. Has the CEO's compensation increased more than 20% whilst the EPS is down more then 20%? (1 check)
  3. Is the average tenure of the management team less than 2 years? (1 check)
  4. Is the average tenure of the board of directors team less than 3 years? (1 check)
  5. Assured Guaranty has a total score of 0/6, this is not included on the snowflake, see the detailed checks below.


Note: We use the top 6 management executives and board members in our calculations.

Note 2: Insider trading include any internal stakeholders and these transactions .

Full details on the Management part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

AGO News

Simply Wall St News

Does Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s (NYSE:AGO) P/E Ratio Signal A Buying Opportunity?

We'll look at Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s (NYSE:AGO) P/E ratio and reflect on what it tells us about the company's share price. … Assured Guaranty has a P/E ratio of 8.88, based on the last twelve months. … Price to Earnings Ratio = Price per Share ÷ Earnings per Share (EPS)

Simply Wall St -

Is Assured Guaranty Ltd's (NYSE:AGO) CEO Paid At A Competitive Rate?

This analysis aims first to contrast CEO compensation with other companies that have similar market capitalization. … How Does Dominic Frederico's Compensation Compare With Similar Sized Companies. … According to our data, Assured Guaranty Ltd has a market capitalization of US$4.3b, and pays its CEO total annual compensation worth US$14m.

Simply Wall St -

Should You Investigate Assured Guaranty Ltd (NYSE:AGO) At US$39.30?

This high level of volatility gives investors the opportunity to enter into the stock, and potentially buy at an artificially low price? … A question to answer is whether Assured Guaranty's current trading price of $39.3 reflective of the actual value of the? … Let’s take a look at Assured Guaranty’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if there are any catalysts for a price change

Simply Wall St -

Should Income Investors Buy Assured Guaranty Ltd (NYSE:AGO) Before Its Ex-Dividend?

To qualify for the dividend check of US$0.16 per share, investors must have owned the shares prior to 14 August 2018, which is the last day the company's management will finalize their list of shareholders to which they will send dividend payments. … Check out our latest analysis for Assured Guaranty? … Whenever I am looking at a potential dividend stock investment, I always check these five metrics:?

Simply Wall St -

Is Assured Guaranty Ltd's (NYSE:AGO) CEO Salary Justified?

Understanding how CEOs are incentivised to run and grow their company is an important aspect of investing in a stock. … This is because, if incentives are aligned, more value is created for shareholders which directly impacts your returns as an investor. … CEOs leading companies of similar size and profitability

Simply Wall St -

Will Assured Guaranty Ltd (NYSE:AGO) Continue To Underperform Its Industry?

Assured Guaranty Ltd (NYSE:AGO) performed in line with its property and casualty insurance industry on the basis of its ROE – producing a return of 8.99% relative to the peer average of 9.44% over the past 12 months. … But what is more interesting is whether AGO can sustain or improve on this level of return. … View our latest analysis for Assured Guaranty

Simply Wall St -

How Assured Guaranty Ltd's (NYSE:AGO) Earnings Growth Stacks Up Against The Industry

Examining Assured Guaranty Ltd's (NYSE:AGO) past track record of performance is an insightful exercise for investors. … Today I will assess AGO's latest performance announced on 31 March 2018 and compare these figures to its longer term trend and industry movements. … AGO's trailing twelve-month earnings (from 31 March 2018) of US$608.00m has

Simply Wall St -

Is There Now An Opportunity In Assured Guaranty Ltd (NYSE:AGO)?

Assured Guaranty Ltd (NYSE:AGO), a insurance company based in Bermuda,. … Let’s take a look at Assured Guaranty’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if there are any catalysts for a price change … Check out our latest analysis for Assured Guaranty

Simply Wall St -

Is There An Opportunity With Assured Guaranty Ltd's (NYSE:AGO) Mispricing?

Pricing AGO, a financial stock, can be difficult since these insurance businesses have cash flows that are affected by regulations that are not imposed upon other sectors. … For instance, insurance firms that invest excess premiums are required to maintain a certain level of reserves to reduce the risk to shareholders.

Simply Wall St -

Assured Guaranty Ltd (NYSE:AGO): Dividend Is Coming In 3 Days, Should You Buy?

See our latest analysis for Assured Guaranty 5 questions I ask before picking a dividend stock Whenever I am looking at a potential dividend stock investment, I always check these five metrics: Is it paying an annual yield above 75% of dividend payers? … In the near future, analysts are predicting a higher payout ratio of 20.23%, leading to a dividend yield of 1.78%. … Relative to peers, Assured Guaranty generates a yield of 1.82%, which is on the low-side for Insurance stocks.

Simply Wall St -

AGO Company Info

Map
Description

Assured Guaranty Ltd., through its subsidiaries, provides credit protection products to public finance, infrastructure, and structured finance markets in the United States and internationally. It offers financial guaranty insurance that protects holders of debt instruments and other monetary obligations from defaults in scheduled payments. The company insures various debt obligations, including bonds issued by the United States state or municipal governmental authorities; and notes issued to finance infrastructure projects. It also insures and reinsures various types of the United States public finance obligations, such as general obligation, tax-backed, municipal utility, transportation, healthcare, higher education, infrastructure, housing revenue, investor-owned utility, and other public finance bonds; and various types of non-United States public finance obligations comprising infrastructure finance, regulated utilities, pooled infrastructure, and other public finance obligations. In addition, the company insures and reinsures various types of the United States and non-United States structured finance obligations, including pooled corporate obligations, residential mortgage-backed securities, insurance securitization obligations, consumer receivables securities, financial products, commercial receivables securities, commercial mortgage-backed securities, and other structured finance securities. It markets its financial guaranty insurance directly to issuers and underwriters of public finance and structured finance securities, as well as to investors in such obligations. Assured Guaranty Ltd. was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Hamilton, Bermuda.

Details
Name: Assured Guaranty Ltd.
AGO
Exchange: NYSE
Founded: 2003
$4,301,728,764
105,615,732
Website: http://www.assuredguaranty.com
Address: Assured Guaranty Ltd.
30 Woodbourne Avenue,
Hamilton,
HM 08,
Bermuda
Listings
Exchange Symbol Ticker Symbol Security Exchange Country Currency Listed on
NYSE AGO Common Stock New York Stock Exchange US USD 23. Apr 2004
DB DHU Common Stock Deutsche Boerse AG DE EUR 23. Apr 2004
Number of employees
Current staff
Staff numbers
310
Assured Guaranty employees.
Industry
Property and Casualty Insurance
Insurance
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
Area Date (UTC time)
Company Analysis updated: 2019/02/14 00:02
End of day share price update: 2019/02/13 00:00
Last estimates confirmation: 2019/02/07
Last earnings filing: 2018/11/09
Last earnings reported: 2018/09/30
Last annual earnings reported: 2017/12/31


All dates and times in UTC. All financial data provided by Standard & Poor’s Capital IQ.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.