Assessing Assured Guaranty (AGO) Valuation as Shares Rebound and Long-Term Returns Impress

Assured Guaranty (AGO) shares have edged slightly lower this week, with investors on the lookout for what might be driving the price movement. While there is no single event shaping the action, recent performance offers a few clues.

See our latest analysis for Assured Guaranty.

Assured Guaranty has picked up steam lately, with a 7% share price gain over the past month and 6% for the week, recouping earlier dips this year. The total shareholder return tells a more compelling story, climbing more than 54% over three years and 201% over five years. This suggests that momentum is very much alive for long-term holders.

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With shares bouncing back and a notable discount to analyst price targets, the question now is whether Assured Guaranty remains undervalued or if the market has already accounted for all the company’s potential upside.

Most Popular Narrative: 17.8% Undervalued

The most popular narrative highlights a sizable gap between Assured Guaranty’s fair value and its current share price, supported by expectations of strategic gains and upcoming catalysts. It compares short-term declines with the potential for much higher long-term earnings power.

They have solid pipelines in their financial guarantee businesses and record production figures in 2024, which lays the groundwork for continued growth in revenue and new business generation in 2025 and beyond.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious about what’s fueling such a bullish price target? The factors driving this number include a mix of ambitious revenue plans, future margin shifts, and a key profit forecast that departs from industry norms. What did analysts project for 2028, and what bold assumptions does this narrative depend on? Click through for the financial details that matter.

Result: Fair Value of $106.5 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, volatility from interest rate swings or losses tied to troubled credits like PREPA could quickly reshape the company’s growth expectations and outlook.

Find out about the key risks to this Assured Guaranty narrative.

Build Your Own Assured Guaranty Narrative

If this perspective doesn’t fit your outlook or you’re eager to reach your own conclusions, you can put together your own view and narrative in just minutes, right from the data: Do it your way

A great starting point for your Assured Guaranty research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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