Should American Financial Group’s New 5 Million Share Buyback Plan (AFG) Require Action From Investors?

• On December 3, 2025, American Financial Group announced that its board approved a new share repurchase program authorizing buybacks of up to 5,000,000 common shares, replacing the existing plan and running through December 31, 2030.
• The long-dated authorization gives AFG considerable flexibility to adjust capital returns over time, signaling management’s confidence in the business and balance sheet strength.
• Next, we’ll examine how this extended 5,000,000-share repurchase authorization could influence American Financial Group’s capital-return focused investment narrative.

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American Financial Group Investment Narrative Recap

To own American Financial Group, you need to believe its specialty P&C franchise can sustain attractive underwriting results while returning excess capital through dividends and buybacks, despite recent earnings pressure. The new 5,000,000 share repurchase authorization through 2030 reinforces that capital return story but does not change the key near term catalyst, which is stabilizing underwriting margins, or the biggest risk, which is persistent catastrophe losses and social inflation weighing on profitability.

The recent announcement of Q3 2025 results, where revenue was broadly flat year over year but nine month net income declined, frames this new buyback in a useful way. Management is choosing to extend capital return flexibility even as underwriting profit has come under pressure and alternative investments remain exposed to market and multifamily real estate volatility, which keeps the focus squarely on whether future underwriting and investment income can support both earnings and ongoing shareholder distributions.

Yet investors should also be aware that if catastrophe activity and litigation trends remain elevated...

Read the full narrative on American Financial Group (it's free!)

American Financial Group's narrative projects $7.6 billion revenue and $1.1 billion earnings by 2028. This requires a 1.8% yearly revenue decline and about a $336 million earnings increase from $764.0 million today.

Uncover how American Financial Group's forecasts yield a $139.60 fair value, a 5% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Simply Wall St Community members provided 2 fair value estimates for AFG, ranging from US$139.60 to US$270.02, showing how far apart individual views can be. You can weigh these against concerns about rising catastrophe losses and thinner reserve releases potentially pressuring margins over time, and decide how you interpret the company’s risk and reward trade off.

Explore 2 other fair value estimates on American Financial Group - why the stock might be worth just $139.60!

Build Your Own American Financial Group Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your American Financial Group research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free American Financial Group research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate American Financial Group's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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