Is Weakness In American Financial Group, Inc. (NYSE:AFG) Stock A Sign That The Market Could be Wrong Given Its Strong Financial Prospects?

Published
June 29, 2022
NYSE:AFG
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American Financial Group (NYSE:AFG) has had a rough three months with its share price down 6.9%. But if you pay close attention, you might gather that its strong financials could mean that the stock could potentially see an increase in value in the long-term, given how markets usually reward companies with good financial health. In this article, we decided to focus on American Financial Group's ROE.

Return on equity or ROE is a key measure used to assess how efficiently a company's management is utilizing the company's capital. Simply put, it is used to assess the profitability of a company in relation to its equity capital.

View our latest analysis for American Financial Group

How Is ROE Calculated?

The formula for return on equity is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for American Financial Group is:

23% = US$1.1b ÷ US$4.8b (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2022).

The 'return' is the yearly profit. That means that for every $1 worth of shareholders' equity, the company generated $0.23 in profit.

What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?

Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

A Side By Side comparison of American Financial Group's Earnings Growth And 23% ROE

Firstly, we acknowledge that American Financial Group has a significantly high ROE. Second, a comparison with the average ROE reported by the industry of 12% also doesn't go unnoticed by us. This probably laid the groundwork for American Financial Group's moderate 11% net income growth seen over the past five years.

We then performed a comparison between American Financial Group's net income growth with the industry, which revealed that the company's growth is similar to the average industry growth of 14% in the same period.

past-earnings-growth
NYSE:AFG Past Earnings Growth June 29th 2022

Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. What is AFG worth today? The intrinsic value infographic in our free research report helps visualize whether AFG is currently mispriced by the market.

Is American Financial Group Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?

In American Financial Group's case, its respectable earnings growth can probably be explained by its low three-year median payout ratio of 22% (or a retention ratio of 78%), which suggests that the company is investing most of its profits to grow its business.

Moreover, American Financial Group is determined to keep sharing its profits with shareholders which we infer from its long history of paying a dividend for at least ten years.

Conclusion

On the whole, we feel that American Financial Group's performance has been quite good. Particularly, we like that the company is reinvesting heavily into its business, and at a high rate of return. Unsurprisingly, this has led to an impressive earnings growth. With that said, on studying the latest analyst forecasts, we found that while the company has seen growth in its past earnings, analysts expect its future earnings to shrink. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.

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