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AMERISAFE, Inc., an insurance holding company, provides workers’ compensation insurance in the United States. The last earnings update was 115 days ago. More info.
7 Day | 30 Day | 90 Day | 1 Year | 3 Year | 5 Year | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Amerisafe (AMSF) | 4.3% | 15.8% | 0.2% | 9.9% | 21.4% | 60.9% |
US Insurance | 1.5% | 6.8% | 2.7% | -1.4% | 35.6% | 41.5% |
US Market | 1.2% | 6.6% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 44.3% | 41.3% |
Is Amerisafe undervalued based on future cash flows and its price relative to the stock market?
Below are the data sources, inputs and calculation used to determine the intrinsic value for Amerisafe.
Data Point | Source | Value |
---|---|---|
Valuation Model | Excess Returns Model | |
Stable EPS |
Median Return on Equity from the past 5 years.
= Stable Book Value * Return on Equity = $21.54 * 14.1% |
$3.04 |
Book Value of Equity per Share | Weighted future Book Value estimates from 3 analysts. | $21.54 |
Discount Rate (Cost of Equity) | See below | 8.5% |
Perpetual Growth Rate | 10-Year US Government Bond Rate | 2.7% |
An important part of a discounted cash flow is the discount rate, below we explain how it has been calculated.
Data Point | Calculation/ Source | Result |
---|---|---|
Risk-Free Rate | 10-Year US Govt Bond Rate | 2.7% |
Equity Risk Premium | S&P Global | 7.3% |
Insurance Unlevered Beta | Simply Wall St/ S&P Global | 0.74 |
Re-levered Beta | = Unlevered beta (1 + (1- tax rate) (Debt/Equity))
= 0.744 (1 + (1- 21%) (0%)) |
0.744 |
Levered Beta | Levered Beta limited to 0.8 to 2.0 (practical range for a stable firm) |
0.8 |
Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity |
= Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate + (Levered Beta * Equity Risk Premium)
= 2.73% + (0.8 * 7.27%) |
8.55% |
Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for NasdaqGS:AMSF using Excess Returns Model Model
The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for Amerisafe is arrived at using the Excess Return Model. This approach is used for finance firms where free cash flow is difficult to estimate.
In the Excess Return Model the value of a firm can be written as the sum of capital invested currently in the firm and the present value of excess returns that the firm expects to make in the future.
The model is sensitive to the Return on Equity of the company versus the Cost of Equity, how these are calculated is detailed below the main calculation.
Note the calculations below are per share.
See our documentation to learn about this calculation.
Calculation | Result | |
---|---|---|
Excess Returns |
= (Stable Return on equity – Cost of equity) (Book Value of
Equity per share)
= (14.1% – 8.55%) * $21.54) |
$1.20 |
Terminal Value of Excess Returns |
= Excess Returns / (Cost of Equity -
Expected Growth Rate)
= $1.20 / (8.55% - 2.73%) |
$20.66 |
Value of Equity |
= Book Value per share + Terminal Value of
Excess Returns
= $21.54 + $20.66 |
$42.19 |
Calculation | Result | |
---|---|---|
Value per share (USD) | From above. | $42.19 |
Current discount | Discount to share price of
$64.16
= -1 x ($64.16 - $42.19) / $42.19 |
-52.1% |
Learn more about our DCF calculations in Simply Wall St’s analysis model .
Data Point | Source | Value |
---|---|---|
Earnings Per Share * | Company Filings (2018-09-30) in USD | $2.79 |
NasdaqGS:AMSF Share Price ** | NasdaqGS (2019-02-15) in USD | $64.16 |
United States of America Insurance Industry PE Ratio | Median Figure of 93 Publicly-Listed Insurance Companies | 17.73x |
United States of America Market PE Ratio | Median Figure of 3,045 Publicly-Listed Companies | 16.97x |
* Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual GAAP earnings per share excluding extraordinary items.
** Primary Listing of Amerisafe.
Calculation | Outcome | |
---|---|---|
PE Ratio | = NasdaqGS:AMSF Share Price ÷ EPS (both in USD) = 64.16 ÷ 2.79 |
23.03x |
Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >
Data Point | Source | Value |
---|---|---|
PE Ratio | See PE Ratio Section | 23.03x |
Net Income Annual Growth Rate | See Future Growth Section. Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Earnings of 4 Analysts |
-2.7%per year |
United States of America Insurance Industry PEG Ratio | Median Figure of 67 Publicly-Listed Insurance Companies | 0.99x |
United States of America Market PEG Ratio | Median Figure of 2,115 Publicly-Listed Companies | 1.36x |
*Line of best fit is calculated by linear regression .
Calculation | Outcome | |
---|---|---|
PEG Ratio | = PE Ratio ÷ Net Income Annual Growth Rate = 23.03x ÷ -2.7% |
-8.62x |
Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >
Data Point | Source | Value |
---|---|---|
Book Value per Share | Company Filings (2018-09-30) in USD | $23.89 |
NasdaqGS:AMSF Share Price * | NasdaqGS (2019-02-15) in USD | $64.16 |
United States of America Insurance Industry PB Ratio | Median Figure of 116 Publicly-Listed Insurance Companies | 1.27x |
United States of America Market PB Ratio | Median Figure of 5,122 Publicly-Listed Companies | 1.82x |
Calculation | Outcome | |
---|---|---|
PB Ratio | = NasdaqGS:AMSF Share Price ÷ Book Value per Share (both in USD) = 64.16 ÷ 23.89 |
2.69x |
* Primary Listing of Amerisafe.
Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >
How is Amerisafe expected to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 4 analysts?
Data Point | Source | Value (per year) |
---|---|---|
NasdaqGS:AMSF Future Earnings Growth Rate | Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Earnings of 4 Analysts | -2.7% |
NasdaqGS:AMSF Future Revenue Growth Rate | Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Revenue of 4 Analysts | 3.3% |
United States of America Insurance Industry Earnings Growth Rate | Market Cap Weighted Average | 17.8% |
United States of America Insurance Industry Revenue Growth Rate | Market Cap Weighted Average | 2.8% |
United States of America Market Earnings Growth Rate | Market Cap Weighted Average | 13.3% |
United States of America Market Revenue Growth Rate | Market Cap Weighted Average | 7.1% |
*Line of best fit is calculated by linear regression .
Industry and Market average data is calculated daily.
Learn more about our growth rate calculations in Simply Wall St’s analysis model.
Data Point | Source | Value |
---|---|---|
Past Financials | Company Filings (4 months ago) | See Below |
Future Estimates | Average of up to 4 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) | See Below |
Date (Data in USD Millions) | Revenue | Cash Flow | Net Income * | Avg. No. Analysts |
---|---|---|---|---|
2020-12-31 | 405 | 62 | 2 | |
2019-12-31 | 391 | 62 | 3 | |
2018-12-31 | 378 | 70 | 3 |
Date (Data in USD Millions) | Revenue | Cash Flow | Net Income * |
---|---|---|---|
2018-09-30 | 378 | 99 | 53 |
2018-06-30 | 377 | 127 | 50 |
2018-03-31 | 372 | 120 | 49 |
2017-12-31 | 375 | 131 | 46 |
2017-09-30 | 379 | 134 | 65 |
2017-06-30 | 384 | 99 | 66 |
2017-03-31 | 392 | 108 | 67 |
2016-12-31 | 397 | 114 | 78 |
2016-09-30 | 401 | 113 | 82 |
2016-06-30 | 400 | 123 | 82 |
2016-03-31 | 402 | 91 | 80 |
2015-12-31 | 402 | 93 | 70 |
*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.
Data Point | Source | Value |
---|---|---|
Past Financials | Company Filings (4 months ago) | See Below |
Future Estimates | Average of up to 4 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) | See Below |
All data from Amerisafe Company Filings, last reported 4 months ago, and in Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.
Date (Data in USD Millions) | EPS * | EPS High Estimate | EPS Low Estimate | Avg. No. Analysts |
---|---|---|---|---|
2020-12-31 | 3.23 | 3.50 | 2.95 | 2.00 |
2019-12-31 | 3.20 | 3.50 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
2018-12-31 | 3.72 | 3.85 | 3.59 | 2.00 |
Date (Data in USD Millions) | EPS * |
---|---|
2018-09-30 | 2.79 |
2018-06-30 | 2.62 |
2018-03-31 | 2.55 |
2017-12-31 | 2.41 |
2017-09-30 | 3.37 |
2017-06-30 | 3.45 |
2017-03-31 | 3.51 |
2016-12-31 | 4.08 |
2016-09-30 | 4.29 |
2016-06-30 | 4.30 |
2016-03-31 | 4.19 |
2015-12-31 | 3.72 |
*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.
How has Amerisafe performed over the past 5 years?
All data from Amerisafe Company Filings, last reported 4 months ago, and in Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.
Date (Data in USD Millions) | Revenue | Net Income * | G+A Expenses | R&D Expenses |
---|---|---|---|---|
2018-09-30 | 378.02 | 53.48 | 26.02 | |
2018-06-30 | 377.30 | 50.35 | 25.87 | |
2018-03-31 | 371.84 | 48.88 | 25.75 | |
2017-12-31 | 375.21 | 46.23 | 26.13 | |
2017-09-30 | 378.83 | 64.66 | 26.08 | |
2017-06-30 | 384.23 | 65.97 | 26.34 | |
2017-03-31 | 391.87 | 67.13 | 26.11 | |
2016-12-31 | 396.66 | 77.87 | 25.58 | |
2016-09-30 | 400.53 | 81.87 | 25.48 | |
2016-06-30 | 399.79 | 81.91 | 25.46 | |
2016-03-31 | 402.17 | 79.59 | 25.03 | |
2015-12-31 | 401.62 | 70.46 | 25.14 | |
2015-09-30 | 404.08 | 64.25 | 25.00 | |
2015-06-30 | 408.95 | 59.79 | 24.90 | |
2015-03-31 | 409.63 | 58.25 | 24.19 | |
2014-12-31 | 404.02 | 53.67 | 25.02 | |
2014-09-30 | 393.44 | 54.18 | 24.48 | |
2014-06-30 | 379.11 | 50.36 | 23.96 | |
2014-03-31 | 366.00 | 45.21 | 24.44 | |
2013-12-31 | 356.34 | 43.50 | 23.36 | |
2013-09-30 | 347.61 | 35.34 | 23.13 | |
2013-06-30 | 339.98 | 32.78 | 22.43 | |
2013-03-31 | 329.11 | 28.61 | 21.80 | |
2012-12-31 | 321.25 | 29.33 | 21.24 | |
2012-09-30 | 310.58 | 28.19 | 20.69 | |
2012-06-30 | 301.94 | 25.96 | 20.55 | |
2012-03-31 | 292.36 | 27.11 | 20.36 |
*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.
How is Amerisafe's financial health and their level of debt?
All data from Amerisafe Company Filings, last reported 4 months ago.
Date (Data in USD Millions) | Total Equity | Total Debt | Cash & Short Term Investments |
---|---|---|---|
2018-09-30 | 459.00 | 0.00 | 138.22 |
2018-06-30 | 445.39 | 0.00 | 127.99 |
2018-03-31 | 432.07 | 0.00 | 80.78 |
2017-12-31 | 425.42 | 0.15 | 81.33 |
2017-09-30 | 494.95 | 0.00 | 149.90 |
2017-06-30 | 481.39 | 0.00 | 100.60 |
2017-03-31 | 467.10 | 0.00 | 72.16 |
2016-12-31 | 456.15 | 0.00 | 88.52 |
2016-09-30 | 509.74 | 0.00 | 98.11 |
2016-06-30 | 495.95 | 0.00 | 87.32 |
2016-03-31 | 478.75 | 0.00 | 91.00 |
2015-12-31 | 453.98 | 0.00 | 77.20 |
2015-09-30 | 490.58 | 0.00 | 106.96 |
2015-06-30 | 472.80 | 0.00 | 68.42 |
2015-03-31 | 461.65 | 0.00 | 91.92 |
2014-12-31 | 446.97 | 0.00 | 124.64 |
2014-09-30 | 448.48 | 0.00 | 160.96 |
2014-06-30 | 435.48 | 0.00 | 184.62 |
2014-03-31 | 420.58 | 0.00 | 191.89 |
2013-12-31 | 416.81 | 0.00 | 207.50 |
2013-09-30 | 400.71 | 0.00 | 202.91 |
2013-06-30 | 392.52 | 0.00 | 165.36 |
2013-03-31 | 389.70 | 0.00 | 149.71 |
2012-12-31 | 381.22 | 0.00 | 161.60 |
2012-09-30 | 372.14 | 0.00 | 120.69 |
2012-06-30 | 363.45 | 12.89 | 120.60 |
2012-03-31 | 359.05 | 25.78 | 113.26 |
What is Amerisafe's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?
Data Point | Source | Value |
---|---|---|
Past Annualized Dividend Yield | S&P Global Market Data | See Below |
Past Dividends per Share | Company Filings/ Annualized Dividend Payments | See Below |
Future Dividends per Share Estimates | Average of up to 4 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) | See Below |
United States of America Insurance Industry Average Dividend Yield | Market Cap Weighted Average of 80 Stocks | 2.5% |
United States of America Market Average Dividend Yield | Market Cap Weighted Average of 1998 Stocks | 2.5% |
United States of America Minimum Threshold Dividend Yield | 10th Percentile | 0.8% |
United States of America Bottom 25% Dividend Yield | 25th Percentile | 1.4% |
United States of America Top 25% Dividend Yield | 75th Percentile | 3.6% |
Industry and Market average data is calculated daily.
Note all dividend per share amounts are annualized and not quarterly or other period.
Date (Data in $) | Dividend per Share (annual) | Avg. No. Analysts |
---|---|---|
2020-12-31 | 2.71 | 2.00 |
2019-12-31 | 2.67 | 2.00 |
2018-12-31 | 4.38 | 2.00 |
Date (Data in $) | Dividend per share (annual) | Avg. Yield (%) |
---|---|---|
2018-10-24 | 4.380 | 7.258 |
2018-04-25 | 4.380 | 7.151 |
2018-02-26 | 4.380 | 7.918 |
2017-10-27 | 4.300 | 6.916 |
2017-10-25 | 4.300 | 6.899 |
2017-07-28 | 4.050 | 7.120 |
2017-07-27 | 4.050 | 6.939 |
2017-04-28 | 4.050 | 7.372 |
2017-04-26 | 4.050 | 6.699 |
2017-02-24 | 4.050 | 6.306 |
2017-02-22 | 4.050 | 6.088 |
2016-10-27 | 3.970 | 6.349 |
2016-10-26 | 3.970 | 7.100 |
2016-07-29 | 3.720 | 6.367 |
2016-07-28 | 3.720 | 6.193 |
2016-04-29 | 3.720 | 6.198 |
2016-04-27 | 3.720 | 6.986 |
2016-02-26 | 3.720 | 7.226 |
2016-02-24 | 3.720 | 7.112 |
2015-10-29 | 3.600 | 7.033 |
2015-07-30 | 0.600 | 1.207 |
2015-04-30 | 0.600 | 1.316 |
2015-03-02 | 0.600 | 1.370 |
2015-02-27 | 0.600 | 1.444 |
2015-02-26 | 0.600 | 1.417 |
2014-10-30 | 0.480 | 1.138 |
2014-07-30 | 0.480 | 1.239 |
2014-04-30 | 0.480 | 1.235 |
2014-02-28 | 0.480 | 1.121 |
2014-02-26 | 0.480 | 1.137 |
2013-08-19 | 0.320 | 0.830 |
2013-05-01 | 0.320 | 0.932 |
2013-02-27 | 0.320 | 0.945 |
Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >
Ms. Gerry Janelle Frost has served as Chief Executive Officer since April 2015 and President since September 2013 of AMERISAFE Inc and American Interstate Insurance Company of Texas. She has served as a Director of the company since April 2016. Prior to becoming Chief Executive Officer, Ms. Frost served as Chief Operating Officer of the company from May 2013 to April 2015. She served as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer from November 2008 to April 2013, Controller from May 2004 to November 2008 and Vice President of the Company from May 2006 to November 2008. She has been employed with the Company since 1992 and served as Assistant Vice President from May 2004 to May 2006 and Deputy Controller from 1998 to April 2004. She served as President and Chief Executive Officer at Silver Oak Casualty, Inc. Ms. Frost serves as a Director of New Orleans Branch of Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
Average tenure and age of the Amerisafe management team in years:
Average tenure and age of the Amerisafe board of directors in years:
Dividends can be underrated but they form a large part of investment returns, playing an important role in compounding returns in the long run. … Does Amerisafe tick all the boxes of a great dividend stock? … See our latest analysis for Amerisafe?
Simply Wall St - – Full articleSo we'll take a look at whether insiders have been buying or selling shares in Amerisafe, Inc. … So we know that an insider sold shares at around the present share price of US$56.09. … Randall Roach was the only individual insider to sell shares in the last twelve months
Simply Wall St - – Full articleThis article is for investors who would like to improve their understanding of price to earnings ratios (P/E ratios). … We'll look at Amerisafe Inc's (NASDAQ:AMSF) P/E ratio and reflect on what it tells us about the company's share price. … Price to Earnings Ratio = Price per Share ÷ Earnings per Share (EPS)
Simply Wall St - – Full articleWhile some investors are already well versed in financial metrics (hat tip), this article is for those who would like to learn about Return On Equity (ROE) and why it is important. … That means that for every $1 worth of shareholders' equity, it generated $0.12 in profit. … Return on Equity = Net Profit ÷ Shareholders' Equity
Simply Wall St - – Full articleIn this article, I will take a look at Amerisafe Inc's (NASDAQ:AMSF) track record on a high level, to give you some insight into how the company has been performing against its historical trend and its industry peers. … Did AMSF perform worse than its track record and industry. … Furthermore, this one-year growth rate has been lower than its average earnings growth rate over the past 5 years of 4.4%, indicating the rate at which AMSF is growing has slowed down
Simply Wall St - – Full articleAmerisafe Inc (NASDAQ:AMSF), a insurance company based in United States,. … saw a decent share price growth in the teens level on the NasdaqGS over the last few months. … With many analysts covering the stock, we may expect any price-sensitive announcements have already been factored into the stock’s share price?
Simply Wall St - – Full articleis an insurance company operating in an industry, … which is a large constituent of the economy by virtue of the amount of premiums it collects, the scale of its investment and the role it plays by covering personal and business risks … Lean operation has become crucial as insurance firms are faced with an environment that is evolving considerably
Simply Wall St - – Full articleI am writing today to help inform people who are new to the stock market. … and want to begin learning the link between Amerisafe Inc (NASDAQ:AMSF)’s return fundamentals and stock market performance. … Amerisafe Inc (NASDAQ:AMSF) delivered an ROE of 11.31% over the past 12 months, which is relatively in-line with its industry average of 9.42% during the same period.
Simply Wall St - – Full articleIncrease in profitability and industry-beating performance can be essential considerations in a stock for some investors. … In this article, I will take a look at Amerisafe Inc's (NASDAQ:AMSF) track record on a high level, to give you some insight into how the company has been performing against its historical trend and its industry peers. … Was AMSF weak performance lately part of a long-term decline.
Simply Wall St - – Full articleA sizeable part of portfolio returns can be produced by dividend stocks due to their contribution to compounding returns in the long run. … Over the past 5 years, Amerisafe Inc (NASDAQ:AMSF) has returned an average of 5.00% per year to shareholders in terms of dividend yield. … When assessing a stock as a potential addition to my dividend Portfolio, I look at these five areas:
Simply Wall St - – Full article
AMERISAFE, Inc., an insurance holding company, provides workers’ compensation insurance in the United States. Its workers’ compensation insurance policies provide benefits to injured employees for temporary or permanent disability, death, and medical and hospital expenses. The company serves small to mid-sized employers involved in construction, trucking, logging and lumber, manufacturing, agriculture, maritime, oil and gas, and other industries through agencies. AMERISAFE, Inc. was incorporated in 1985 and is based in DeRidder, Louisiana.
Name: | Amerisafe, Inc. |
AMSF | |
Exchange: | NasdaqGS |
Founded: | 1985 |
$1,235,780,306 | |
19,260,915 | |
Website: | http://www.amerisafe.com |
Address: |
Amerisafe, Inc. 2301 Highway 190 West, DeRidder, Louisiana, 70634, United States |
Exchange Symbol | Ticker Symbol | Security | Exchange | Country | Currency | Listed on | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NasdaqGS | AMSF | Voting Common Stock | Nasdaq Global Select | US | USD | 18. Nov 2005 | |
DB | A3I | Voting Common Stock | Deutsche Boerse AG | DE | EUR | 18. Nov 2005 |
Property and Casualty Insurance | |
Insurance |
Area | Date (UTC time) |
---|---|
Company Analysis updated: | 2019/02/18 02:01 |
End of day share price update: | 2019/02/15 00:00 |
Last estimates confirmation: | 2019/01/27 |
Last earnings filing: | 2018/10/26 |
Last earnings reported: | 2018/09/30 |
Last annual earnings reported: | 2017/12/31 |
All dates and times in UTC. All financial data provided by Standard & Poor’s Capital IQ.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.