Medifast (NYSE:MED) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of MED when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

MED ($142.03) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] ($159.4)

MED fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	4/6
Future Growth	0/6
Past Performance	3/6
Financial Health	5/6
Dividends	3/6

MED Stock Overview

Rewards

Trading at 10.9% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings have grown 35.5% per year over the past 5 years

Risk Analysis

Dividend of 4.62% is not well covered by earnings

Medifast Competitors

e.l.f. Beauty

NYSE:ELF

US$2.0b

USANA Health Sciences

NYSE:USNA

US$1.4b

Inter Parfums

NasdaqGS:IPAR

US$2.7b

Nu Skin Enterprises

NYSE:NUS

US$2.4b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Medifast
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$142.03
52 Week High	US$239.56
52 Week Low	US$125.18
Beta	1.1
1 Month Change	-16.33%
3 Month Change	-12.99%
1 Year Change	-36.24%
3 Year Change	34.13%
5 Year Change	157.16%
Change since IPO	2,482.36%

Recent News & Updates

Aug 09

Medifast, Inc. (NYSE:MED) Analysts Are Reducing Their Forecasts For This Year

Today is shaping up negative for Medifast, Inc. ( NYSE:MED ) shareholders, with the analysts delivering a substantial...

Shareholder Returns

	MED	US Personal Products	US Market
7D	10.5%	5.0%	4.5%
1Y	-36.2%	-16.3%	-8.9%

Return vs Industry: MED underperformed the US Personal Products industry which returned -16.3% over the past year.

Return vs Market: MED underperformed the US Market which returned -8.9% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is MED's price volatile compared to industry and market?
MED volatility
MED Average Weekly Movement	7.5%
Personal Products Industry Average Movement	10.6%
Market Average Movement	7.6%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	16.8%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	3.1%

Stable Share Price: MED is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 8% a week.

Volatility Over Time: MED's weekly volatility (8%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1980	984	Dan Chard	https://medifastinc.com

Medifast, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes weight loss, weight management, healthy living products, and other consumable health and nutritional products in the United States and the Asia-Pacific. The company offers bars, bites, pretzels, puffs, cereal crunch, drinks, hearty choices, oatmeal, pancakes, pudding, soft serves, shakes, smoothies, soft bakes, and soups under the OPTAVIA, Optimal Health by Take Shape for Life, and Flavors of Home brands. It markets its products through point-of-sale transactions over ecommerce platform.

Medifast Fundamentals Summary

How do Medifast's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
MED fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$1.56b
Earnings (TTM)	US$156.90m
Revenue (TTM)	US$1.66b

9.9x

P/E Ratio

0.9x

P/S Ratio

Is MED overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
MED income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$1.66b
Cost of Revenue	US$452.85m
Gross Profit	US$1.21b
Other Expenses	US$1.05b
Earnings	US$156.90m

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	14.32
Gross Margin	72.76%
Net Profit Margin	9.44%
Debt/Equity Ratio	20.9%

How did MED perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

4.6%

Current Dividend Yield

45%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is MED undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MED?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for MED. This is calculated by dividing MED's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is MED's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	US$1.56b

MED key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.9x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	7.2x
PEG Ratio	5.5x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MED's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

MED PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for MED vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	33.4x
ELF e.l.f. Beauty	70.5x	27.5%	US$2.0b
USNA USANA Health Sciences	15.5x	-2.6%	US$1.4b
IPAR Inter Parfums	26.9x	6.3%	US$2.7b
NUS Nu Skin Enterprises	20.9x	15.4%	US$2.4b
MED Medifast	9.9x	1.8%	US$1.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MED is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.9x) compared to the peer average (33.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MED's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Personal Products Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MED is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.9x) compared to the US Personal Products industry average (19.8x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MED's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MED PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	9.9x
Fair PE Ratio	18.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MED is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.7x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MED when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MED ($142.03) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($159.4)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MED is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but there are not enough analysts covering the stock to determine statistical confidence in agreement.

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Future Growth

How is Medifast forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 2 analysts?

Future Growth Score

0/6

Future Growth Score 0/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

1.8%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: MED's forecast earnings growth (1.8% per year) is below the savings rate (1.9%).

Earnings vs Market: MED's earnings (1.8% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (14.5% per year).

High Growth Earnings: MED's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: MED's revenue (2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (7.9% per year).

High Growth Revenue: MED's revenue (2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if MED's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time

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Past Performance

How has Medifast performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

3/6

Past Performance Score 3/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

35.5%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: MED has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: MED's current net profit margins (9.4%) are lower than last year (11.8%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: MED's earnings have grown significantly by 35.5% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: MED's earnings growth over the past year (4.3%) is below its 5-year average (35.5% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: MED earnings growth over the past year (4.3%) underperformed the Personal Products industry 4.3%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: MED's Return on Equity (121.2%) is considered outstanding.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is Medifast's financial position?

Financial Health Score

5/6

Financial Health Score 5/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: MED's short term assets ($243.3M) exceed its short term liabilities ($188.2M).

Long Term Liabilities: MED's short term assets ($243.3M) exceed its long term liabilities ($22.9M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: MED has more cash than its total debt.

Reducing Debt: Insufficient data to determine if MED's debt to equity ratio has reduced over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: MED's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (354.7%).

Interest Coverage: MED's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (462x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Medifast current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

3/6

Dividend Score 3/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

4.62%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: MED's dividend (4.62%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.47%).

High Dividend: MED's dividend (4.62%) is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (3.95%)

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Whilst dividend payments have been stable, MED has been paying a dividend for less than 10 years.

Growing Dividend: MED's dividend payments have increased, but the company has only paid a dividend for 6 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its reasonably low payout ratio (45.1%), MED's dividend payments are well covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its high cash payout ratio (105.8%), MED's dividend payments are not well covered by cash flows.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

3.2yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Dan Chard (57 yo)

5.83yrs

Tenure

US$6,930,636

Compensation

Mr. Daniel R. Chard, also known as Dan, has been Chief Executive Officer of Medifast, Inc. since October 3, 2016 and Director since October 3, 2016 and also serves as its Executive Chairman since December...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Dan's total compensation ($USD6.93M) is about average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD5.43M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Dan's compensation has increased by more than 20% in the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: MED's management team is considered experienced (3.2 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: MED's board of directors are considered experienced (7.2 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: MED insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/08/17 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/08/17 00:00
Earnings	2022/06/30
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31