Read This Before Considering National HealthCare Corporation (NYSEMKT:NHC) For Its Upcoming US$0.52 Dividend

By
Simply Wall St
Published
March 24, 2021
NYSEAM:NHC
Source: Shutterstock

Regular readers will know that we love our dividends at Simply Wall St, which is why it's exciting to see National HealthCare Corporation (NYSEMKT:NHC) is about to trade ex-dividend in the next 4 days. You will need to purchase shares before the 30th of March to receive the dividend, which will be paid on the 3rd of May.

National HealthCare's upcoming dividend is US$0.52 a share, following on from the last 12 months, when the company distributed a total of US$2.08 per share to shareholders. Looking at the last 12 months of distributions, National HealthCare has a trailing yield of approximately 2.8% on its current stock price of $73.65. We love seeing companies pay a dividend, but it's also important to be sure that laying the golden eggs isn't going to kill our golden goose! We need to see whether the dividend is covered by earnings and if it's growing.

See our latest analysis for National HealthCare

Dividends are typically paid from company earnings. If a company pays more in dividends than it earned in profit, then the dividend could be unsustainable. It paid out 76% of its earnings as dividends last year, which is not unreasonable, but limits reinvestment in the business and leaves the dividend vulnerable to a business downturn. We'd be worried about the risk of a drop in earnings. Yet cash flow is typically more important than profit for assessing dividend sustainability, so we should always check if the company generated enough cash to afford its dividend. What's good is that dividends were well covered by free cash flow, with the company paying out 18% of its cash flow last year.

It's encouraging to see that the dividend is covered by both profit and cash flow. This generally suggests the dividend is sustainable, as long as earnings don't drop precipitously.

Click here to see how much of its profit National HealthCare paid out over the last 12 months.

historic-dividend
AMEX:NHC Historic Dividend March 25th 2021

Have Earnings And Dividends Been Growing?

When earnings decline, dividend companies become much harder to analyse and own safely. If earnings fall far enough, the company could be forced to cut its dividend. That's why it's not ideal to see National HealthCare's earnings per share have been shrinking at 3.9% a year over the previous five years.

Many investors will assess a company's dividend performance by evaluating how much the dividend payments have changed over time. In the last 10 years, National HealthCare has lifted its dividend by approximately 6.4% a year on average. The only way to pay higher dividends when earnings are shrinking is either to pay out a larger percentage of profits, spend cash from the balance sheet, or borrow the money. National HealthCare is already paying out 76% of its profits, and with shrinking earnings we think it's unlikely that this dividend will grow quickly in the future.

To Sum It Up

Is National HealthCare worth buying for its dividend? The payout ratios are within a reasonable range, implying the dividend may be sustainable. Declining earnings are a serious concern, however, and could pose a threat to the dividend in future. Overall we're not hugely bearish on the stock, but there are likely better dividend investments out there.

If you're not too concerned about National HealthCare's ability to pay dividends, you should still be mindful of some of the other risks that this business faces. For example, we've found 3 warning signs for National HealthCare (1 is a bit concerning!) that deserve your attention before investing in the shares.

We wouldn't recommend just buying the first dividend stock you see, though. Here's a list of interesting dividend stocks with a greater than 2% yield and an upcoming dividend.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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