Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Zimmer Biomet Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:ZBH) as an investment opportunity by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!
Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.
We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
|Levered FCF ($, Millions)||US$868.3m||US$1.66b||US$1.93b||US$2.15b||US$2.43b||US$2.64b||US$2.81b||US$2.96b||US$3.08b||US$3.19b|
|Growth Rate Estimate Source||Analyst x4||Analyst x4||Analyst x4||Analyst x3||Analyst x2||Est @ 8.47%||Est @ 6.53%||Est @ 5.17%||Est @ 4.21%||Est @ 3.55%|
|Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 6.6%||US$814||US$1.5k||US$1.6k||US$1.7k||US$1.8k||US$1.8k||US$1.8k||US$1.8k||US$1.7k||US$1.7k|
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$16b
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.0%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 6.6%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2030 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$3.2b× (1 + 2.0%) ÷ (6.6%– 2.0%) = US$71b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$71b÷ ( 1 + 6.6%)10= US$37b
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$53b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$158, the company appears quite undervalued at a 38% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Zimmer Biomet Holdings as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.6%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.978. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Although the valuation of a company is important, it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For Zimmer Biomet Holdings, we've compiled three pertinent aspects you should explore:
- Risks: Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Zimmer Biomet Holdings (at least 1 which is a bit concerning) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
- Management:Have insiders been ramping up their shares to take advantage of the market's sentiment for ZBH's future outlook? Check out our management and board analysis with insights on CEO compensation and governance factors.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NYSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
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Zimmer Biomet Holdings
Zimmer Biomet Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates in the musculoskeletal healthcare business in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific.
Adequate balance sheet with moderate growth potential.