The past year for agilon health (NYSE:AGL) investors has not been profitable

By
Simply Wall St
Published
April 20, 2022
NYSE:AGL
Source: Shutterstock

agilon health, inc. (NYSE:AGL) shareholders will doubtless be very grateful to see the share price up 35% in the last quarter. But in truth the last year hasn't been good for the share price. In fact the stock is down 30% in the last year, well below the market return.

Since shareholders are down over the longer term, lets look at the underlying fundamentals over the that time and see if they've been consistent with returns.

See our latest analysis for agilon health

agilon health isn't currently profitable, so most analysts would look to revenue growth to get an idea of how fast the underlying business is growing. Shareholders of unprofitable companies usually expect strong revenue growth. That's because fast revenue growth can be easily extrapolated to forecast profits, often of considerable size.

In the last year agilon health saw its revenue grow by 50%. That's a strong result which is better than most other loss making companies. Given the revenue growth, the share price drop of 30% seems quite harsh. Our sympathies to shareholders who are now underwater. On the bright side, if this company is moving profits in the right direction, top-line growth like that could be an opportunity. Our brains have evolved to think in linear fashion, so there's value in learning to recognize exponential growth. We are, in some ways, simply the wisest of the monkeys.

The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
NYSE:AGL Earnings and Revenue Growth April 20th 2022

We're pleased to report that the CEO is remunerated more modestly than most CEOs at similarly capitalized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think agilon health will earn in the future (free profit forecasts).

A Different Perspective

Given that the market gained 2.1% in the last year, agilon health shareholders might be miffed that they lost 30%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Putting aside the last twelve months, it's good to see the share price has rebounded by 35%, in the last ninety days. Let's just hope this isn't the widely-feared 'dead cat bounce' (which would indicate further declines to come). It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand agilon health better, we need to consider many other factors. For example, we've discovered 3 warning signs for agilon health that you should be aware of before investing here.

If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

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