Stock Analysis

Does Insulet's (NASDAQ:PODD) Statutory Profit Adequately Reflect Its Underlying Profit?

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NasdaqGS:PODD
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As a general rule, we think profitable companies are less risky than companies that lose money. Having said that, sometimes statutory profit levels are not a good guide to ongoing profitability, because some short term one-off factor has impacted profit levels. This article will consider whether Insulet's (NASDAQ:PODD) statutory profits are a good guide to its underlying earnings.

While Insulet was able to generate revenue of US$867.7m in the last twelve months, we think its profit result of US$28.9m was more important. The chart below shows that revenue has improved over the last three years, and, even better, the company has moved from unprofitable to profitable.

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earnings-and-revenue-history
NasdaqGS:PODD Earnings and Revenue History February 9th 2021

Of course, it is only sensible to look beyond the statutory profits and question how well those numbers represent the sustainable earnings power of the business. In this article we will consider how Insulet's decision to issue new shares in the company has impacted returns to shareholders. That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

In order to understand the potential for per share returns, it is essential to consider how much a company is diluting shareholders. In fact, Insulet increased the number of shares on issue by 6.6% over the last twelve months by issuing new shares. As a result, its net income is now split between a greater number of shares. To talk about net income, without noticing earnings per share, is to be distracted by the big numbers while ignoring the smaller numbers that talk to per share value. Check out Insulet's historical EPS growth by clicking on this link.

How Is Dilution Impacting Insulet's Earnings Per Share? (EPS)

Insulet was losing money three years ago. On the bright side, in the last twelve months it grew profit by 76%. On the other hand, earnings per share are only up 64% over the same period. So you can see that the dilution has had a bit of an impact on shareholders. Therefore, the dilution is having a noteworthy influence on shareholder returns. And so, you can see quite clearly that dilution is influencing shareholder earnings.

Changes in the share price do tend to reflect changes in earnings per share, in the long run. So it will certainly be a positive for shareholders if Insulet can grow EPS persistently. However, if its profit increases while its earnings per share stay flat (or even fall) then shareholders might not see much benefit. For the ordinary retail shareholder, EPS is a great measure to check your hypothetical "share" of the company's profit.

Our Take On Insulet's Profit Performance

Each Insulet share now gets a meaningfully smaller slice of its overall profit, due to dilution of existing shareholders. Therefore, it seems possible to us that Insulet's true underlying earnings power is actually less than its statutory profit. The good news is that, its earnings per share increased by 64% in the last year. At the end of the day, it's essential to consider more than just the factors above, if you want to understand the company properly. So while earnings quality is important, it's equally important to consider the risks facing Insulet at this point in time. Be aware that Insulet is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis and 1 of those can't be ignored...

This note has only looked at a single factor that sheds light on the nature of Insulet's profit. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.

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What are the risks and opportunities for Insulet?

Insulet Corporation develops, manufactures, and sells insulin delivery systems for people with insulin-dependent diabetes.

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Rewards

  • Earnings are forecast to grow 50.65% per year

  • Became profitable this year

Risks

  • Interest payments are not well covered by earnings

  • Significant insider selling over the past 3 months

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