Could Tablo’s Real-World Success Shift Outset Medical’s (OM) Growth Trajectory Despite Lowered Guidance?

• Outset Medical recently reported third quarter results, showing revenue of US$29.43 million and a reduced net loss of US$17.84 million compared to the previous year, while also lowering its annual revenue guidance for 2025.
• New research presented at the American Society of Nephrology's 2025 Kidney Week highlighted strong real-world outcomes for the Tablo system, including a large reduction in complications and high staff satisfaction across 1 million treatments in approximately 750 facilities.
• We'll examine how the improved clinical outcomes with Tablo may shape Outset Medical's investment narrative and future growth expectations.

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Outset Medical Investment Narrative Recap

To be a shareholder in Outset Medical, you need to believe that growing adoption of the Tablo Hemodialysis System, supported by strong clinical results, will drive recurring revenue and margin expansion over time. The company’s recent reduction in annual revenue guidance may blunt near-term momentum, and ongoing net losses remain the biggest risk, but the immediate impact on Tablo adoption trends appears limited.

Among recent announcements, the release of real-world outcome data from over one million Tablo treatments stands out. These results, including a 94% reduction in life-threatening complications and high nursing satisfaction, reinforce Tablo’s clinical value and could help maintain provider interest, a key factor when aiming to offset financial headwinds highlighted by lower full-year guidance.

However, given the company’s ongoing net losses and the updated outlook for cash use, investors should remain mindful that even promising clinical stories can ...

Read the full narrative on Outset Medical (it's free!)

Outset Medical's narrative projects $170.1 million revenue and $21.2 million earnings by 2028. This requires 12.6% yearly revenue growth and a $119.1 million increase in earnings from -$97.9 million.

Uncover how Outset Medical's forecasts yield a $25.75 fair value, a 314% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Four recent fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span an unusually wide range from US$3.63 to US$25.75 per share. While these perspectives highlight differing expectations, the company’s revised revenue guidance raises important questions about the path to sustained profitability that you may want to consider.

Explore 4 other fair value estimates on Outset Medical - why the stock might be worth over 4x more than the current price!

Build Your Own Outset Medical Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Outset Medical research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Outset Medical research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Outset Medical's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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