Castle Biosciences (CSTL) Is Up 27.1% After Raising 2025 Outlook and Launching AdvanceAD-Tx

• In early November 2025, Castle Biosciences reported their third quarter results, raised full-year 2025 revenue guidance to a range of US$327 million to US$335 million, and announced the commercial launch of AdvanceAD-Tx, a new gene expression test for atopic dermatitis.
• While recent quarterly financial results showed a moderation in sales and earnings, management's increased revenue outlook and product expansion signal confidence in future business prospects.
• We'll examine what Castle Biosciences' stronger 2025 outlook and new AdvanceAD-Tx launch could mean for the company's investment narrative.

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Castle Biosciences Investment Narrative Recap

To be a shareholder in Castle Biosciences, one should believe in the long-term expansion of precision diagnostics and the company's ability to grow by launching new tests and broadening market access, despite current unprofitability. The recent Q3 update, highlighting raised revenue guidance, reinforces management's confidence, but critical short-term catalysts like test reimbursement for core products and risk from payer decisions have not seen any material change from this news.

Among the latest developments, the commercial launch of AdvanceAD-Tx, a gene expression test targeting atopic dermatitis, stands out. This move may strengthen Castle's growth narrative by targeting new market segments, but, with a measured rollout and reimbursement pathways still in progress, immediate impact on revenue diversification or payer risk remains limited.

Yet, against a backdrop of product innovation, investors should remain aware that persistent hurdles to widespread insurance coverage for both new and existing tests could...

Read the full narrative on Castle Biosciences (it's free!)

Castle Biosciences' outlook expects $357.5 million in revenue and $19.3 million in earnings by 2028. This projection is based on a 1.1% annual revenue growth rate and a $28.8 million increase in earnings from current earnings of $-9.5 million.

Uncover how Castle Biosciences' forecasts yield a $35.62 fair value, a 8% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Four members of the Simply Wall St Community have provided fair value estimates for Castle Biosciences, ranging from US$7.50 to US$60.39 per share. While some see considerable upside, the company's ongoing reimbursement challenges for new tests may affect how these scenarios play out, explore these differing points of view for a fuller picture.

Explore 4 other fair value estimates on Castle Biosciences - why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!

Build Your Own Castle Biosciences Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Castle Biosciences research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Castle Biosciences research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Castle Biosciences' overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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