Can Certara’s (CERT) Cloud Bet Reshape Its Competitive Edge in Drug Development?

• In the past week, Certara, Inc. reported a return to profitability for the third quarter of 2025, with quarterly sales rising to US$104.62 million and the company providing full-year revenue guidance of US$415 million to US$420 million.
• The launch of TFL Studio, Certara’s first cloud-native module designed to streamline key pharmacokinetic workflow processes, signals ongoing product innovation aimed at accelerating drug development and regulatory submissions.
• We’ll examine how Certara’s improved earnings and new technology offerings may shape its investment narrative going forward.

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Certara Investment Narrative Recap

To be a Certara shareholder, you need to believe that the company’s advanced biosimulation and cloud-based platforms are gaining traction in the pharma industry, helping drive adoption despite uncertainty around R&D budgets and pricing. The recent return to profitability and raised sales figures are encouraging, but with customer concentration and macroeconomic caution still present, the short-term outlook largely depends on continued demand from major pharma clients and the commercial uptake of new digital tools. The latest results do not materially shift the company’s biggest catalyst, technology adoption, or its top risk of customer and revenue concentration.

The launch of TFL Studio is especially relevant, as it deepens Certara’s cloud offering and directly supports the company’s push to digitize and accelerate regulatory workflows. This aligns closely with the catalyst of increasing industry demand for advanced biosimulation and regulatory technology, though market adoption rates and regulatory acceptance remain critical watchpoints.

But while product innovation advances, investors should also be aware that...

Read the full narrative on Certara (it's free!)

Certara's outlook projects $519.5 million in revenue and $7.4 million in earnings by 2028. This assumes an annual revenue growth rate of 8.6% and a decrease in earnings of $0.6 million from the current $8.0 million.

Uncover how Certara's forecasts yield a $14.75 fair value, a 75% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Simply Wall St Community members produced two independent fair value estimates ranging from US$14.75 to US$19.23 per share before this update. With Certara’s technology-led growth dependent on industry adoption, opinions about risk and opportunity will vary widely, explore these perspectives for a broader understanding.

Explore 2 other fair value estimates on Certara - why the stock might be worth just $14.75!

Build Your Own Certara Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Certara research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Certara research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Certara's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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