Utz Brands (UTZ): Assessing Whether the 42% Share Price Slide Signals a Mispriced Snack Stock

Utz Brands (UTZ) has quietly slipped this year, with the stock down about 42% over the past 12 months, and that drawdown has investors asking if the snack maker is now mispriced.

See our latest analysis for Utz Brands.

The selloff has been steady rather than sudden, with a 30 day share price return of minus 8.5% and a three year total shareholder return of about minus 44.6%. This signals fading momentum as investors reassess growth and margin risks around packaged snacks.

If Utz’s slide has you rethinking where growth might come from next, it could be worth scouting fast growing stocks with high insider ownership as a shortlist of companies where management is strongly aligned with shareholders.

With shares trading at a steep discount to analyst targets, yet growth and margins under pressure, the key question now is whether Utz is genuinely undervalued or if the market is already pricing in muted future gains.

Most Popular Narrative: 39.2% Undervalued

Against a last close of $9.58, the most followed narrative pegs Utz Brands’ fair value at $15.75, implying a sizeable upside if its plan delivers.

Significant supply chain optimization, including automation, plant consolidation, and productivity initiatives, is leading to sustained gross margin expansion (~6% productivity improvement), with management guiding to further margin improvements in the latter half of the year and into 2026 positively impacting EBITDA and net earnings.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how modest top line growth, rising margins, and a richer future earnings multiple can still justify such a gap to today’s price? The full narrative unpacks the specific revenue trajectory, margin lift, and discount rate assumptions that drive this seemingly ambitious fair value, and how they stack up against current profitability.

Result: Fair Value of $15.75 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, this upside hinges on westward expansion paying off and on Utz successfully pivoting its traditional salty lineup toward faster growing, healthier snacking trends.

Find out about the key risks to this Utz Brands narrative.

Another Angle on Value

There is a catch. On a simple earnings multiple, Utz looks expensive, trading at about 147.8 times earnings versus roughly 20 times for the US Food industry and around 16 times for close peers. That lofty gap leaves less room for error if margins or growth underwhelm.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Utz Brands Narrative

If you would rather dig into the numbers yourself and challenge these assumptions, you can build a custom view in minutes, starting with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Utz Brands research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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