Post Holdings (POST) Valuation Check After $1.3 Billion Debt Refinance and Higher-Cost Notes Issuance

Post Holdings (POST) just reshaped its balance sheet by selling $1.3 billion of 2036 senior notes and earmarking the cash to redeem its 2029 debt, extending maturities while locking in a higher coupon.

See our latest analysis for Post Holdings.

Even with the balance sheet reshuffle and a fresh $500 million buyback plan in play, the stock’s 1 month share price return of negative 10.01 percent and 1 year total shareholder return of negative 17.87 percent suggest sentiment has cooled near term. However, longer term holders still show a solid 5 year total shareholder return of 45.10 percent, which points to momentum that is consolidating rather than collapsing.

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With shares trading well below analyst targets but recent returns pointing down, are investors overlooking a steady cash generator at a discount, or is the market already pricing in every dollar of future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 22.1% Undervalued

With the narrative fair value set well above Post Holdings recent close at 96 dollars, the debate shifts to whether its long term earnings path justifies the gap.

The analysts have a consensus price target of 127.444 dollars for Post Holdings based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of 150.0 dollars, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just 105.0 dollars.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how modest revenue growth, thicker margins and a shrinking share count can still add up to a double digit upside case, even after forecast downgrades? The full narrative unpacks the earnings trajectory, the valuation multiple it assumes, and the exact balance between buybacks and profit growth that supports that higher fair value.

Result: Fair Value of $123.22 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent volume declines in core cereal and pet food, alongside high leverage, could derail margin expansion and limit the upside from buybacks.

Find out about the key risks to this Post Holdings narrative.

Build Your Own Post Holdings Narrative

If you are not fully aligned with this view or simply prefer hands on research, you can build a personalised narrative in under three minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Post Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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