Is Hershey’s Strong Sales But Lower EPS Changing Its Investment Story (HSY)?

• On October 30, 2025, Hershey reported third quarter and nine-month financial results, affirming quarterly dividends and raising its full-year 2025 earnings guidance, while also disclosing that no shares were repurchased during the most recent buyback tranche period.
• Despite higher year-over-year sales, Hershey’s net income and diluted earnings per share saw a significant decline, even as updated guidance signaled a less negative outlook for earnings compared to previous projections.
• Next, we analyze how Hershey’s increased sales but lower earnings per share influence the company’s near-term investment narrative.

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Hershey Investment Narrative Recap

To be a Hershey shareholder, you need to believe in the company’s ability to drive steady sales growth, manage rising costs, and maintain its leadership in snacking and confectionery despite pressures from higher input costs, tariffs, and evolving consumer preferences. The latest results, higher sales but lower earnings, show that the primary near-term catalyst remains successful cost management and margin recovery, while the ongoing risk comes from persistently high cocoa prices and earnings pressure. The most recent news does not appear to materially alter these immediate catalysts or risks.

Among Hershey’s recent announcements, the update to full-year 2025 earnings guidance stands out. The company has adjusted its net sales growth outlook higher, but projected that diluted earnings per share will still decline 48% to 50% for the year. This revised forecast offers a slight improvement over prior guidance and affirms that the core challenge for Hershey is protecting profitability in the face of ongoing cost headwinds, rather than a sudden shift in overall business direction.

In contrast, what may demand closer attention from investors is the risk related to volatile cocoa prices and its ongoing impact on gross margins...

Read the full narrative on Hershey (it's free!)

Hershey's narrative projects $12.2 billion revenue and $1.8 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 4.3% yearly revenue growth and a $0.2 billion earnings increase from $1.6 billion today.

Uncover how Hershey's forecasts yield a $191.95 fair value, a 14% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

With nine Simply Wall St Community members weighing in, fair value estimates for Hershey span from US$137.71 to US$191.95 per share. As you review these differing outlooks, consider how persistent margin pressures may shape Hershey’s earnings trajectory and add complexity to forecasting future returns.

Explore 9 other fair value estimates on Hershey - why the stock might be worth 18% less than the current price!

Build Your Own Hershey Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Hershey research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Hershey research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Hershey's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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