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GIS

General Mills NYSE:GIS Stock Report

Last Price

US$76.17

Market Cap

US$45.5b

7D

1.8%

1Y

31.6%

Updated

06 Aug, 2022

Data

Company Financials +
GIS fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation5/6
Future Growth2/6
Past Performance5/6
Financial Health3/6
Dividends5/6

GIS Stock Overview

General Mills, Inc. manufactures and markets branded consumer foods worldwide.

General Mills Competitors

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for General Mills
Historical stock prices
Current Share PriceUS$76.17
52 Week HighUS$76.94
52 Week LowUS$56.67
Beta0.33
1 Month Change0.87%
3 Month Change6.68%
1 Year Change31.62%
3 Year Change41.27%
5 Year Change34.60%
Change since IPO734.74%

Recent News & Updates

Jul 25
Should You Be Adding General Mills (NYSE:GIS) To Your Watchlist Today?

Should You Be Adding General Mills (NYSE:GIS) To Your Watchlist Today?

For beginners, it can seem like a good idea (and an exciting prospect) to buy a company that tells a good story to...

Jul 14

Is General Mills A Good Investment Following The Recent Dividend Hike?

General Mills has significantly outperformed the broader market over the past year, while also offering high and growing dividend. The dividend is also safer on both historical basis and when compared against General Mills' major peers. General Mills is now in a good position to further increase its dividend per share in the coming years, while not compromising safety. General Mills (GIS) is often seen as a company with little pricing power that is now in the crosshairs of rising inflationary pressures. In addition, the high dividend yields associated with large cap consumer staple companies are less of an incentive for shareholders in a world where the percentage change in CPI numbers are approaching double digits. In stark contrast with this simplistic view outlined above, however, GIS has defied all pessimistic expectations and achieved a total return of close to 25% at a time when the broader market declined by more than 5% (the starting point of the graph below is 26th of May 2021, when I first covered the company) Data by YCharts From a business point of view, GIS management has solidified the company's existing competitive advantages through some recent capital allocation decisions and have repositioned the business to more attractive product segments of the Packaged Food industry. I recently covered all that in a thought piece called 'General Mills: Capital Allocation Matters'. In the meantime, the management has also announced a recent dividend increase, which although is not enough to offset current inflation, is a positive sign for long-term investors. Seeking Alpha Consequently, the forward dividend yield of around 2.9% sets GIS among the highest yield large cap consumer staples in the packaged food space. prepared by the author, using data from Seeking Alpha Of the peers listed above, those with higher forward dividend yield are only: Kraft Heinz (KHC), Kellogg (K) and J. M. Smucker (SJM). However, each of these three companies had far worse returns since May of last year. Moreover, each of these three companies face significant obstacles from an overall strategy and business positioning (for more information on all that check here, here and here). Data by YCharts Additionally, GIS leading dividend yield is also accompanied by very strong ratings on safety, growth and consistency. Seeking Alpha In the following lines I will go deeper into these ratings and show why GIS' dividend is yet another key feature of the company that makes it an attractive long-term investment. General Mills' affordability and safety After reaching nearly 70%, GIS dividend payout ratio has declined to roughly 50% in recent years which is in-line with the long-term historical average. prepared by the author, using data from SEC Filings On a cross-sectional basis, the company's cash dividend payout and the forward payout ratio are both one of the lowest within the peer group. prepared by the author, using data from Seeking Alpha Although high quality consumer staple businesses could support much higher payout ratios for very long periods, GIS is well-positioned to continue its recent path towards more dividend increases. Equally important, the current dividend is also one of the safest within the peer group which is key feature for investors looking for shelter in lower risk parts of the equity market. In addition to the current snapshot of GIS dividend payout ratio, we also need to evaluate the company's profitability to assess the safety of the current dividend. Rising raw material costs is one of the major short-term risks for the dividend, given the company's lower gross margin relative to the peer group. Although GIS is not the most profitable business on a gross margin basis, its competitive positioning and iconic brands give the company significant pricing power, which so far is able to offset the rising costs of raw materials. For the company's next fiscal year, the management expects price realization and certain cost savings to once again offset expected inflation. So as we think about our approach to the next fiscal year, we're thinking about it much the same way. We're expecting only a modest decline in the level of supply chain disruption. We expect, as you mentioned, our price realization, and the combination of HMM to largely offset the dollar cost of the 14% inflation that we've called. And our expectation is that the remainder costs from disruption, we would work out over time to the extent that we see the environment stabilize. Source: GIS Q4 2022 Earnings Transcript All that is already reflected within the company's adjusted operating profit assumptions for the next fiscal year. General Mills Investor Presentation Given the net impact of divestitures and acquisitions, GIS is also in a good position to retain its operating profitability even as inflationary pressures increase. General Mills Investor Presentation Scope for future increases Even though GIS total number of shares outstanding has fluctuated in recent years, the current number of 613m is not materially different from the 612m shares outstanding as of the end of fiscal year 2016. prepared by the author, using data from SEC Filings During the same period, however, the company's dividend per share has stayed relatively flat. prepared by the author, using data from SEC Filings This was long-enough period for some investors to throw in the towel and conclude that GIS is unable to consistently raise dividends. However, it was during this period that the company made a meaningful move into the pet food business, which is now one of the crown jewels of the company. Moreover, the business was restructured through a number of smaller deals and divestitures in order to reinvigorate topline growth and better position the company. That is why future growth in dividend per share should not be judged based on recent history. From a cash flow perspective, GIS is also in a good position to continue to raise its dividends in the foreseeable future. On the graph below we see the annual dividend payments and capital expenditures as a percentage of the company's cash flow from operations.

Jul 08

Is General Mills Stock A Sell As It Nears All-Time Highs?

General Mills' shares went up by +25% in the last year, as the defensive consumer staples sector found favor with investors and GIS successfully dealt with inflationary cost pressures. General Mills' current valuations are still fair based on historical and peer comparisons, although its stock price is close to an all-time high. GIS is a Hold, as the risk-reward for the stock is balanced with positives priced in. Elevator Pitch I assign a Hold investment rating to General Mills, Inc.'s (GIS) stock. With General Mills' shares nearing all-time highs, certain investors might be eager to take profits on the stock and rate it as a Sell. But GIS isn't overvalued despite its share price strength, as peer and historical comparisons suggest that General Mills is at a fair valuation now. In addition, GIS' strong stock price performance is justified by its ability to tackle inflation and its healthy long-term growth prospects. Nevertheless, GIS is currently fairly valued, and this suggests that the stock deserves a Hold rating. GIS Stock Key Metrics GIS issued the company's Q4 FY 2022 (YE May 31) earnings press release on June 29, 2022, before trading hours, and its key metrics help to explain why its shares have reached historical highs. The key financial metrics relate to General Mills' earnings per share or EPS and its shareholder capital return. The company's non-GAAP adjusted EPS expanded by +23% YoY from $0.91 in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2021 to $1.12 in the recent quarter. General Mills' Q4 FY 2022 EPS was +11% higher than the sell-side analysts' consensus earnings estimate of $1.01 per share. This follows on from a +8% EPS beat for GIS in Q3 FY 2022. On the back of a substantial earnings beat, GIS increased its quarterly dividend per share payout from $0.51 to $0.54. This translates into a very decent annualized dividend yield of 2.9% based on General Mills' last traded stock price of $75.51 as of July 7, 2022. GIS isn't merely returning more excess capital to the company's shareholders via higher dividends. General Mills also highlighted in its fourth-quarter results media release that it expects to implement "an increased share repurchase plan in fiscal 2023" which should lead to "a 2 to 3 percent net reduction in its average diluted share count." Why Has GIS Stock Gone Up? As per the chart below, GIS stock has gone up by +25.0% in the past year, which represents a substantial outperformance as compared to the S&P 500's -8.4% decrease during the same period. General Mills' Historical One-Year Stock Price Chart Seeking Alpha General Mills' shares are also near all-time highs. GIS registered a new 52-week and historical peak stock price of $76.73 during intra-day trading on July 6, 2022. GIS' last done share price of $75.51 as of July 7 is about -1.6% below its historical high. In my view, there are two key reasons for the significant rise in General Mills' share price in the past year. One key reason for the positive share price momentum for General Mills is that the consumer staples sector is becoming "a safe haven" for investors, with GIS being one of the proxies for this sector. A recent June 29 Seeking Alpha News article cited a BofA survey which mentioned consumer staples were one of the few sectors "seeing inflows" from funds and highlighted this as a sign that "investors once again are taking some shelter in consumer defensive stocks." Within the consumer staples sector and food companies in particular, GIS is among the key names that investors watch closely. As an example, General Mills is the second largest holding in the Invesco Dynamic Food & Beverage ETF (PBJ) with a 5.49% stake as of June 30, 2022. Another key reason for General Mills' share price strength is that the company has demonstrated its ability to successfully counter the negative impact of inflation. In the previous section, I noted that GIS has been able to deliver bottom line growth above market expectations in the recent quarter, while still having the capacity to return more excess capital to its shareholders via higher dividends and more share repurchases. Looking ahead, General Mills guided at the company's Q4 FY 2022 investor briefing that its "price realization, and the combination of HMM (its cost optimization program which it refers to as Holistic Margin Management)" can "largely offset the dollar cost of the 14% inflation that we've called" in full-year fiscal 2023. Investors agree with the company's optimistic view, with the Wall Street's consensus financial projections obtained from S&P Capital IQ pointing to the gross margin for GIS contracting marginally from 33.00% in FY 2022 to 32.95% in FY 2023. In the next section, I discuss whether these positives have been fully priced into General Mills' current valuations. Is GIS Stock Overvalued? General Mills' valuations appear to be fair now, even though its current share price is close to historical highs. Based on valuation data sourced from S&P Capital IQ, GIS is currently valued by the market at 18.9 times consensus forward next twelve months' normalized P/E. In absolute terms, a forward P/E multiple of below 20 times for a leading food company with well-known brands like Cheerios doesn't seem to be expensive. From the perspective of historical valuations, General Mills' current P/E multiple only represents an +11% premium as compared to its 10-year average forward P/E of 17.1 times. I touch on General Mills' peer valuations in the subsequent section. How Does General Mills Compare To Its Competitors? I compare GIS against its competitors and peers in the packaging food and consumer staples space on various valuation and financial metrics in this section of the article. Peer Valuation Comparison For GIS Stock Consensus Forward Next Twelve Months' Normalized P/E Multiple Consensus Forward Next Twelve Months' EV/EBIT Multiple Consensus Forward One Year Revenue Growth Consensus Forward Two Years Revenue Growth Consensus Forward One Year Normalized Net Profit Margin Consensus Forward Two Years Normalized Net Profit Margin Post Holdings, Inc. (POST) 28.1 19.0 +2.7% +1.9% 3.6% 4.4% UTZ Brands, Inc. (UTZ) 27.0 20.9 +4.2% +3.4% 6.0% 7.0% The Hershey Company (HSY) 26.9 22.2 +3.6% +2.7% 17.1% 17.4% Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ) 21.0 21.1 +4.3% +3.0% 14.0% 14.4% General Mills 18.9 17.6 +2.4% +2.0% 12.4% 12.7% Kellogg Company (K) 17.7 18.2 +1.8% +1.8% 9.7% 9.8% Campbell Soup Company (CPB) 17.0 14.7 +2.2% +0.9% 9.9% 10.2% The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) 16.5 14.3 +3.5% +2.7% 10.4% 11.4% The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC) 14.1 13.3 +0.4% +1.4% 13.2% 13.4%

Jul 02
General Mills (NYSE:GIS) Has Announced That It Will Be Increasing Its Dividend To US$0.54

General Mills (NYSE:GIS) Has Announced That It Will Be Increasing Its Dividend To US$0.54

General Mills, Inc.'s ( NYSE:GIS ) dividend will be increasing on the 1st of August to US$0.54, with investors...

Shareholder Returns

GISUS FoodUS Market
7D1.8%0.7%1.0%
1Y31.6%6.9%-12.9%

Return vs Industry: GIS exceeded the US Food industry which returned 6.9% over the past year.

Return vs Market: GIS exceeded the US Market which returned -12.8% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is GIS's price volatile compared to industry and market?
GIS volatility
GIS Average Weekly Movement3.7%
Food Industry Average Movement6.1%
Market Average Movement7.9%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market17.1%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market3.2%

Stable Share Price: GIS is less volatile than 75% of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 4% a week.

Volatility Over Time: GIS's weekly volatility (4%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

FoundedEmployeesCEOWebsite
186632,500Jeff Harmeninghttps://www.generalmills.com

General Mills, Inc. manufactures and markets branded consumer foods worldwide. The company operates in five segments: North America Retail; Convenience Stores & Foodservice; Europe & Australia; Asia & Latin America; and Pet. It offers ready-to-eat cereals, refrigerated yogurt, soup, meal kits, refrigerated and frozen dough products, dessert and baking mixes, bakery flour, frozen pizza and pizza snacks, snack bars, fruit and salty snacks, ice cream, nutrition bars, wellness beverages, and savory and grain snacks, as well as various organic products, including frozen and shelf-stable vegetables.

General Mills Fundamentals Summary

How do General Mills's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
GIS fundamental statistics
Market CapUS$45.49b
Earnings (TTM)US$2.71b
Revenue (TTM)US$18.99b

16.8x

P/E Ratio

2.4x

P/S Ratio

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
GIS income statement (TTM)
RevenueUS$18.99b
Cost of RevenueUS$12.59b
Gross ProfitUS$6.41b
Other ExpensesUS$3.70b
EarningsUS$2.71b

Last Reported Earnings

May 29, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)4.53
Gross Margin33.73%
Net Profit Margin14.25%
Debt/Equity Ratio107.7%

How did GIS perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

2.7%

Current Dividend Yield

46%

Payout Ratio
We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is GIS undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for GIS?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

GIS key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue3x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA14.3x
PEG Ratio4.8x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does GIS's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

GIS PE Ratio vs Peers
The above table shows the PE ratio for GIS vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average23.6x
HSY Hershey
28.6x5.6%US$46.6b
KHC Kraft Heinz
30.3x11.1%US$46.0b
TSN Tyson Foods
7.8x-4.1%US$31.6b
K Kellogg
17.2x3.4%US$25.5b
GIS General Mills
16.8x3.5%US$45.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: GIS is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.8x) compared to the peer average (23.6x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does GIS's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Food Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: GIS is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.8x) compared to the US Food industry average (17.1x)


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is GIS's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

GIS PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio16.8x
Fair PE Ratio24.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: GIS is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.3x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of GIS when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: GIS ($76.17) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($149.29)

Significantly Below Fair Value: GIS is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.


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Future Growth

How is General Mills forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 15 analysts?

Future Growth Score

2/6

Future Growth Score 2/6

  • Earnings vs Savings Rate

  • Earnings vs Market

  • High Growth Earnings

  • Revenue vs Market

  • High Growth Revenue

  • Future ROE


3.5%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: GIS's forecast earnings growth (3.5% per year) is above the savings rate (1.9%).

Earnings vs Market: GIS's earnings (3.5% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (12.8% per year).

High Growth Earnings: GIS's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: GIS's revenue (1.9% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (7.9% per year).

High Growth Revenue: GIS's revenue (1.9% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: GIS's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (22.3%)


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Past Performance

How has General Mills performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

5/6

Past Performance Score 5/6

  • Quality Earnings

  • Growing Profit Margin

  • Earnings Trend

  • Accelerating Growth

  • Earnings vs Industry

  • High ROE


7.6%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: GIS has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: GIS's current net profit margins (14.3%) are higher than last year (12.9%).


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: GIS's earnings have grown by 7.6% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: GIS's earnings growth over the past year (15.6%) exceeds its 5-year average (7.6% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: GIS earnings growth over the past year (15.6%) exceeded the Food industry 5.4%.


Return on Equity

High ROE: Whilst GIS's Return on Equity (25.35%) is high, this metric is skewed due to their high level of debt.


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Financial Health

How is General Mills's financial position?

Financial Health Score

3/6

Financial Health Score 3/6

  • Short Term Liabilities

  • Long Term Liabilities

  • Debt Level

  • Reducing Debt

  • Debt Coverage

  • Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: GIS's short term assets ($5.1B) do not cover its short term liabilities ($8.0B).

Long Term Liabilities: GIS's short term assets ($5.1B) do not cover its long term liabilities ($12.3B).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: GIS's net debt to equity ratio (100.1%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: GIS's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 169.9% to 107.7% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: GIS's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (28.5%).

Interest Coverage: GIS's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (8.9x coverage).


Balance Sheet


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Dividend

What is General Mills's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

5/6

Dividend Score 5/6

  • Notable Dividend

  • High Dividend

  • Stable Dividend

  • Growing Dividend

  • Earnings Coverage

  • Cash Flow Coverage


2.68%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: GIS's dividend (2.68%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.52%).

High Dividend: GIS's dividend (2.68%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (4.09%).


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: GIS's dividends per share have been stable in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: GIS's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.


Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its reasonably low payout ratio (45.8%), GIS's dividend payments are well covered by earnings.


Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its reasonably low cash payout ratio (44.3%), GIS's dividend payments are well covered by cash flows.


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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

5.1yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Jeff Harmening (55 yo)

5.17yrs

Tenure

US$15,572,682

Compensation

Mr. Jeffrey L. Harmening, also known as Jeff, has been the Chief Executive Officer at General Mills, Inc. since June 1, 2017. Mr. Harmening served as the President of General Mills, Inc. since July 1, 2016...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Jeff's total compensation ($USD15.57M) is about average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD13.00M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Jeff's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.


Leadership Team

Experienced Management: GIS's management team is seasoned and experienced (5.1 years average tenure).


Board Members

Experienced Board: GIS's board of directors are considered experienced (5.7 years average tenure).


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: GIS insiders have only sold shares in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

General Mills, Inc.'s employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: General Mills, Inc.
  • Ticker: GIS
  • Exchange: NYSE
  • Founded: 1866
  • Industry: Packaged Foods and Meats
  • Sector: Food, Beverage & Tobacco
  • Implied Market Cap: US$45.486b
  • Shares outstanding: 597.16m
  • Website: https://www.generalmills.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • General Mills, Inc.
  • Number One General Mills Boulevard
  • Minneapolis
  • Minnesota
  • 55426
  • United States

Listings


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2022/08/06 00:00
End of Day Share Price2022/08/05 00:00
Earnings2022/05/29
Annual Earnings2022/05/29


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.