Is The Market Rewarding Hostess Brands, Inc. (NASDAQ:TWNK) With A Negative Sentiment As A Result Of Its Mixed Fundamentals?

By
Simply Wall St
Published
April 13, 2021
NasdaqCM:TWNK

Hostess Brands (NASDAQ:TWNK) has had a rough month with its share price down 2.1%. It seems that the market might have completely ignored the positive aspects of the company's fundamentals and decided to weigh-in more on the negative aspects. Long-term fundamentals are usually what drive market outcomes, so it's worth paying close attention. Specifically, we decided to study Hostess Brands' ROE in this article.

ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. In other words, it is a profitability ratio which measures the rate of return on the capital provided by the company's shareholders.

View our latest analysis for Hostess Brands

How Is ROE Calculated?

Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Hostess Brands is:

4.2% = US$68m ÷ US$1.6b (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2020).

The 'return' refers to a company's earnings over the last year. Another way to think of that is that for every $1 worth of equity, the company was able to earn $0.04 in profit.

Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

A Side By Side comparison of Hostess Brands' Earnings Growth And 4.2% ROE

At first glance, Hostess Brands' ROE doesn't look very promising. Next, when compared to the average industry ROE of 11%, the company's ROE leaves us feeling even less enthusiastic. Given the circumstances, the significant decline in net income by 4.0% seen by Hostess Brands over the last five years is not surprising. We believe that there also might be other aspects that are negatively influencing the company's earnings prospects. For example, it is possible that the business has allocated capital poorly or that the company has a very high payout ratio.

As a next step, we compared Hostess Brands' performance with the industry and found thatHostess Brands' performance is depressing even when compared with the industry, which has shrunk its earnings at a rate of 2.7% in the same period, which is a slower than the company.

past-earnings-growth
NasdaqCM:TWNK Past Earnings Growth April 13th 2021

Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. What is TWNK worth today? The intrinsic value infographic in our free research report helps visualize whether TWNK is currently mispriced by the market.

Is Hostess Brands Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

Conclusion

Overall, we have mixed feelings about Hostess Brands. While the company does have a high rate of profit retention, its low rate of return is probably hampering its earnings growth. With that said, we studied the latest analyst forecasts and found that while the company has shrunk its earnings in the past, analysts expect its earnings to grow in the future. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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