Stock Analysis

Investors in Hostess Brands (NASDAQ:TWNK) have made a favorable return of 76% over the past five years

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NasdaqCM:TWNK
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Stock pickers are generally looking for stocks that will outperform the broader market. And in our experience, buying the right stocks can give your wealth a significant boost. For example, long term Hostess Brands, Inc. (NASDAQ:TWNK) shareholders have enjoyed a 76% share price rise over the last half decade, well in excess of the market return of around 56% (not including dividends). However, more recent returns haven't been as impressive as that, with the stock returning just 46% in the last year.

So let's investigate and see if the longer term performance of the company has been in line with the underlying business' progress.

Though if you're not interested in researching what drove TWNK's performance, we have a free list of interesting investing ideas to potentially inspire your next investment!

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

During the last half decade, Hostess Brands became profitable. That would generally be considered a positive, so we'd expect the share price to be up. Given that the company made a profit three years ago, but not five years ago, it is worth looking at the share price returns over the last three years, too. Indeed, the Hostess Brands share price has gained 64% in three years. Meanwhile, EPS is up 22% per year. This EPS growth is higher than the 18% average annual increase in the share price over the same three years. Therefore, it seems the market has moderated its expectations for growth, somewhat.

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

earnings-per-share-growth
NasdaqCM:TWNK Earnings Per Share Growth August 31st 2022

We know that Hostess Brands has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? You could check out this free report showing analyst revenue forecasts.

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Hostess Brands shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 46% over the last year. Since the one-year TSR is better than the five-year TSR (the latter coming in at 12% per year), it would seem that the stock's performance has improved in recent times. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Even so, be aware that Hostess Brands is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is a bit concerning...

If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Hostess Brands is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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About NasdaqCM:TWNK

Hostess Brands

Hostess Brands, Inc., a packaged food company, develops, manufactures, markets, sells, and distributes snack products in the United States.

The Snowflake is a visual investment summary with the score of each axis being calculated by 6 checks in 5 areas.

Analysis AreaScore (0-6)
Valuation2
Future Growth1
Past Performance5
Financial Health4
Dividends0

Read more about these checks in the individual report sections or in our analysis model.

Solid track record with adequate balance sheet.