Origin Agritech (NasdaqCM:SEED) - Share price, News & Analysis

SEED fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	0/6
Future Growth	0/6
Past Performance	0/6
Financial Health	0/6
Dividends	0/6

SEED Stock Overview

Origin Agritech Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates an agricultural biotechnology and an e-commerce platform in the People’s Republic of China.

Risk Analysis

Earnings have declined by 5.7% per year over past 5 years

Has less than 1 year of cash runway

Highly volatile share price over the past 3 months

Negative shareholders equity

+ 2 more risks

Origin Agritech Competitors

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Origin Agritech
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$7.04
52 Week High	US$14.40
52 Week Low	US$4.21
Beta	0.82
1 Month Change	-14.46%
3 Month Change	-0.98%
1 Year Change	-41.09%
3 Year Change	13.18%
5 Year Change	-56.81%
Change since IPO	-85.18%

Recent News & Updates

Jul 28

Origin Agritech Ltd. Is Poised For Explosive Growth - Could Be The Right Time To Plant A SEED

The company is poised to capitalize on an expected shift in China to allow government-approved GMO seeds, being one of only three Chinese companies in a 15 billion Yuan market. The stock price recently cratered on the successive filings of a $25M shelf, and then an Equity Purchase Agreement with Oasis Capital, providing a good entry point. Key near-term catalyst: Approval for sale of its GMO corn by Chinese regulators is expected in the near term – with billion yuan revenue potential to shortly follow. This little Chinese seed company could be worth a small speculative investment.

Shareholder Returns

	SEED	US Food	US Market
7D	-4.9%	0.7%	-2.5%
1Y	-41.1%	4.6%	-10.4%

Return vs Industry: SEED underperformed the US Food industry which returned 4.6% over the past year.

Return vs Market: SEED underperformed the US Market which returned -10.4% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is SEED's price volatile compared to industry and market?
SEED volatility
SEED Average Weekly Movement	18.6%
Food Industry Average Movement	6.8%
Market Average Movement	7.8%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	16.7%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	2.8%

Stable Share Price: SEED is more volatile than 90% of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 19% a week.

Volatility Over Time: SEED's weekly volatility (19%) has been stable over the past year, but is still higher than 75% of US stocks.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1997	54	Gengchen Han	https://www.originseed.com.cn

Origin Agritech Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates an agricultural biotechnology and an e-commerce platform in the People’s Republic of China. The company engages in crop seed breeding and genetic improvement activities. It develops, produces, and distributes hybrid crop seeds, as well as develops hybrid seed technology.

Origin Agritech Fundamentals Summary

How do Origin Agritech's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
SEED fundamental statistics
Market Cap	CN¥275.88m
Earnings (TTM)	-CN¥91.53m
Revenue (TTM)	CN¥46.43m

5.9x

P/S Ratio

-3.0x

P/E Ratio

Is SEED overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
SEED income statement (TTM)
Revenue	CN¥46.43m
Cost of Revenue	CN¥33.61m
Gross Profit	CN¥12.81m
Other Expenses	CN¥104.34m
Earnings	-CN¥91.53m

Last Reported Earnings

Sep 30, 2021

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	-15.85
Gross Margin	27.60%
Net Profit Margin	-197.15%
Debt/Equity Ratio	-74.2%

How did SEED perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Valuation

Is Origin Agritech undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PE vs Industry
PE vs Market
PEG Ratio
PB vs Industry

In this section, we usually try to help investors determine whether Origin Agritech is trading at an attractive price based on the cash flow it is expected to produce in the future. But as Origin Agritech has not provided consistent financial data, and the stock also has no analyst forecast or coverage, its intrinsic value cannot be reliably calculated by extrapolating past data or using analyst consensus cash flow predictions.

This is quite a rare situation as 89% of companies covered by Simply Wall St do have a valuation analysis.

Future Growth

How is Origin Agritech forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 0 analysts?

Future Growth Score

0/6

Future Growth Score 0/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

6.9%

Forecasted Food, Beverage & Tobacco industry annual growth in earnings

In this section we usually present revenue and earnings growth projections based on the consensus estimates of professional analysts to help investors understand the company’s ability to generate profit. But as Origin Agritech has not provided enough past data and has no analyst forecast, its future earnings cannot be reliably calculated by extrapolating past data or using analyst predictions.

This is quite a rare situation as 97% of companies covered by SimplyWall St do have past financial data.

Past Performance

How has Origin Agritech performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

0/6

Past Performance Score 0/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

-5.7%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: SEED is currently unprofitable.

Growing Profit Margin: SEED is currently unprofitable.

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: SEED is unprofitable, and losses have increased over the past 5 years at a rate of 5.7% per year.

Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare SEED's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable

Earnings vs Industry: SEED is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Food industry (11%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: SEED's liabilities exceed its assets, so it is difficult to calculate its Return on Equity.

Financial Health

How is Origin Agritech's financial position?

Financial Health Score

0/6

Financial Health Score 0/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Stable Cash Runway
Forecast Cash Runway

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: SEED has negative shareholder equity, which is a more serious situation than short term assets not covering short term liabilities.

Long Term Liabilities: SEED has negative shareholder equity, which is a more serious situation than short term assets not covering long term liabilities.

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: SEED has negative shareholder equity, which is a more serious situation than a high debt level.

Reducing Debt: SEED's has negative shareholder equity, so we do not need to check if its debt has reduced over time.

Balance Sheet

Cash Runway Analysis

For companies that have on average been loss making in the past we assess whether they have at least 1 year of cash runway.

Stable Cash Runway: SEED has less than a year of cash runway based on its current free cash flow.

Forecast Cash Runway: SEED has less than a year of cash runway if free cash flow continues to reduce at historical rates of 20.1% each year

Dividend

What is Origin Agritech current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate SEED's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate SEED's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if SEED's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if SEED's dividend payments have been increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as SEED has not reported any payouts.

Next Steps

Explore strong dividend paying companies in the Food, Beverage & Tobacco industry.

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

4.3yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Gengchen Han (66 yo)

3.42yrs

Tenure

Dr. Gengchen Han, Ph.D. has been the Executive Chairman of Beijing Origin and its affiliated companies since 1997. Dr. Han founded Origin Agritech Limited in 1997 and serves as its Chairman of the Board an...

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: SEED's management team is considered experienced (4.3 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: SEED's board of directors are seasoned and experienced ( 12.5 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 2.7%.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/05/14 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/05/13 00:00
Earnings	2021/09/30
Annual Earnings	2021/09/30