Stock Analysis

Results: John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates

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It's been a good week for John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. (NASDAQ:JBSS) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 5.3% to US$82.86. Revenues were US$234m, approximately in line with whatthe analyst expected, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) crushed expectations, coming in at US$1.72, an impressive 20% ahead of estimates. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what expert is forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimate to see what could be in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for John B. Sanfilippo & Son

NasdaqGS:JBSS Earnings and Revenue Growth January 29th 2021

Following last week's earnings report, John B. Sanfilippo & Son's sole analyst are forecasting 2021 revenues to be US$855.7m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to dip 4.4% to US$4.50 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analyst had been modelling revenues of US$855.7m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.50 in 2021. The consensus analyst doesn't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

With the analyst reconfirming their revenue and earnings forecasts, it's surprising to see that the price target rose 7.0% to US$107. It looks as though they previously had some doubts over whether the business would live up to their expectations.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. One thing that stands out from these estimates is that shrinking revenues are expected to moderate from the historical decline of 1.3% per annum over the past five years.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analyst reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply revenues will perform worse than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analyst clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have analyst estimates for John B. Sanfilippo & Son going out as far as 2022, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for John B. Sanfilippo & Son (of which 1 is significant!) you should know about.

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What are the risks and opportunities for John B. Sanfilippo & Son?

John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc., through its subsidiary, JBSS Ventures, LLC, processes and distributes tree nuts and peanuts in the United States.

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  • Price-To-Earnings ratio (16.2x) is below the Food industry average (17.9x)


  • Significant insider selling over the past 3 months

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