Stock Analysis

Calculating The Fair Value Of Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc. (NASDAQ:COKE)

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NasdaqGS:COKE
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Does the August share price for Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc. (NASDAQ:COKE) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Check out our latest analysis for Coca-Cola Consolidated

What's The Estimated Valuation?

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032
Levered FCF ($, Millions) US$233.0m US$212.8m US$201.2m US$194.6m US$191.3m US$190.2m US$190.5m US$191.8m US$193.8m US$196.4m
Growth Rate Estimate Source Est @ -13.19% Est @ -8.65% Est @ -5.48% Est @ -3.25% Est @ -1.69% Est @ -0.6% Est @ 0.16% Est @ 0.69% Est @ 1.07% Est @ 1.33%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 5.3% US$221 US$192 US$172 US$158 US$148 US$139 US$132 US$127 US$121 US$117

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$1.5b

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (1.9%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 5.3%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$196m× (1 + 1.9%) ÷ (5.3%– 1.9%) = US$5.9b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$5.9b÷ ( 1 + 5.3%)10= US$3.5b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$5.0b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$507, the company appears about fair value at a 5.7% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

dcf
NasdaqGS:COKE Discounted Cash Flow August 16th 2022

Important Assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Coca-Cola Consolidated as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 5.3%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Looking Ahead:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Coca-Cola Consolidated, we've put together three fundamental aspects you should assess:

  1. Risks: For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Coca-Cola Consolidated that you should be aware of before investing here.
  2. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
  3. Other Top Analyst Picks: Interested to see what the analysts are thinking? Take a look at our interactive list of analysts' top stock picks to find out what they feel might have an attractive future outlook!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NASDAQGS every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Coca-Cola Consolidated is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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About NasdaqGS:COKE

Coca-Cola Consolidated

Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, and distributes nonalcoholic beverages primarily products of The Coca-Cola Company in the United States.

The Snowflake is a visual investment summary with the score of each axis being calculated by 6 checks in 5 areas.

Analysis AreaScore (0-6)
Valuation3
Future Growth0
Past Performance5
Financial Health4
Dividends0

Read more about these checks in the individual report sections or in our analysis model.

Solid track record with adequate balance sheet.