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Northern Oil and Gas

AMEX:NOG
Snowflake Description

Reasonable growth potential and fair value.

The Snowflake is generated from 30 checks in 5 different areas, read more below.
NOG
AMEX
$788M
Market Cap
  1. Home
  2. US
  3. Energy
Company description

Northern Oil and Gas, Inc., an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, exploitation, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas properties in the United States. The last earnings update was 39 days ago. More info.


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  • Northern Oil and Gas has significant price volatility in the past 3 months.
NOG Share Price and Events
7 Day Returns
-0.5%
AMEX:NOG
-0.9%
US Oil and Gas
0.3%
US Market
1 Year Returns
-28.3%
AMEX:NOG
-18.1%
US Oil and Gas
0.7%
US Market
NOG Shareholder Return
  7 Day 30 Day 90 Day 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year
Northern Oil and Gas (NOG) -0.5% -6.4% -22.1% -28.3% -57.7% -87.2%
US Oil and Gas -0.9% -5.3% -9% -18.1% -7.4% -40.9%
US Market 0.3% 0.4% 0.6% 0.7% 37.2% 37.4%
1 Year Return vs Industry and Market
  • NOG underperformed the Oil and Gas industry which returned -18.1% over the past year.
  • NOG underperformed the Market in United States of America which returned 0.7% over the past year.
Price Volatility
NOG
Industry
5yr Volatility vs Market

NOG Value

 Is Northern Oil and Gas undervalued based on future cash flows and its price relative to the stock market?

Value is all about what a company is worth versus what price it is available for. If you went into a grocery store and all the bananas were on sale at half price, they could be considered undervalued.
INTRINSIC VALUE BASED ON FUTURE CASH FLOWS
Here we compare the current share price of Northern Oil and Gas to its discounted cash flow analysis.value.

The discounted cash flow value is simply looking at what the company is worth today, based on estimates of how much money it is expected to make in the future.
Raw Data

Below are the data sources, inputs and calculation used to determine the intrinsic value for Northern Oil and Gas.

AMEX:NOG Discounted Cash Flow Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Valuation Model 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
Levered Free Cash Flow Average of 5 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See below
Discount Rate (Cost of Equity) See below 11.4%
Perpetual Growth Rate 10-Year US Government Bond Rate 2.7%

An important part of a discounted cash flow is the discount rate, below we explain how it has been calculated.

Calculation of Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity for AMEX:NOG
Data Point Calculation/ Source Result
Risk-Free Rate 10-Year US Govt Bond Rate 2.7%
Equity Risk Premium S&P Global 6%
Oil and Gas Unlevered Beta Simply Wall St/ S&P Global 0.91
Re-levered Beta = Unlevered beta (1 + (1- tax rate) (Debt/Equity))
= 0.908 (1 + (1- 21%) (107.63%))
1.456
Levered Beta Levered Beta limited to 0.8 to 2.0
(practical range for a stable firm)
1.46
Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity = Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate + (Levered Beta * Equity Risk Premium)
= 2.73% + (1.456 * 5.96%)
11.41%

Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for AMEX:NOG using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Model

The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for Northern Oil and Gas is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method. We try to start with analysts estimates of free cash flow, however if these are not available we use the most recent financial results. In the 1st stage we continue to grow the free cash flow over a 10 year period, with the growth rate trending towards the perpetual growth rate used in the 2nd stage. The 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.

AMEX:NOG DCF 1st Stage: Next 10 year cash flow forecast
Levered FCF (USD, Millions) Source Present Value
Discounted (@ 11.41%)
2019 132.76 Analyst x6 119.16
2020 158.00 Analyst x5 127.30
2021 158.67 Analyst x3 114.75
2022 160.43 Est @ 1.11% 104.14
2023 163.00 Est @ 1.6% 94.97
2024 166.16 Est @ 1.94% 86.90
2025 169.77 Est @ 2.18% 79.70
2026 173.75 Est @ 2.34% 73.21
2027 178.02 Est @ 2.46% 67.33
2028 182.54 Est @ 2.54% 61.97
Present value of next 10 years cash flows $929.45
AMEX:NOG DCF 2nd Stage: Terminal Value
Calculation Result
Terminal Value = FCF2028 × (1 + g) ÷ (Discount Rate – g)
= $182.54 × (1 + 2.73%) ÷ (11.41% – 2.73%)
$2,160.98
Present Value of Terminal Value = Terminal Value ÷ (1 + r)10
= $2,160.98 ÷ (1 + 11.41%)10
$733.66
AMEX:NOG Total Equity Value
Calculation Result
Total Equity Value = Present value of next 10 years cash flows + Terminal Value
= $929.45 + $733.66
$1,663.11
Equity Value per Share
(USD)
= Total value / Shares Outstanding
= $1,663.11 / 384.55
$4.32
AMEX:NOG Discount to Share Price
Calculation Result
Value per share (USD) From above. $4.32
Current discount Discount to share price of $2.05
= -1 x ($2.05 - $4.32) / $4.32
52.6%

Learn more about our DCF calculations in Simply Wall St’s analysis model .

Current Discount
Amount off the current price Northern Oil and Gas is available for.
Intrinsic value
>50%
Share price is $2.05 vs Future cash flow value of $4.32
Current Discount Checks
For Northern Oil and Gas to be considered undervalued it must be available for at least 20% below the current price. Less than 40% is even better.
  • Northern Oil and Gas's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a moderate discount (> 20%).
  • Northern Oil and Gas's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a substantial discount (> 40%).
PRICE RELATIVE TO MARKET
We can also value a company based on what the stock market is willing to pay for it. This is similar to the price of fruit (e.g. Mangoes or Avocados) increasing when they are out of season, or how much your home is worth.

The amount the stock market is willing to pay for Northern Oil and Gas's earnings, growth and assets is considered below, and whether this is a fair price.
Price based on past earnings
Are Northern Oil and Gas's earnings available for a low price, and how does this compare to other companies in the same industry?
Raw Data
AMEX:NOG PE (Price to Earnings) Ratio Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Earnings Per Share * Company Filings (2019-03-31) in USD $0.11
AMEX:NOG Share Price ** AMEX (2019-06-17) in USD $2.05
United States of America Oil and Gas Industry PE Ratio Median Figure of 102 Publicly-Listed Oil and Gas Companies 12.63x
United States of America Market PE Ratio Median Figure of 3,093 Publicly-Listed Companies 17.68x

* Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual GAAP earnings per share excluding extraordinary items.

** Primary Listing of Northern Oil and Gas.

AMEX:NOG PE (Price to Earnings) Ratio Calculation
Calculation Outcome
PE Ratio

= AMEX:NOG Share Price ÷ EPS (both in USD)

= 2.05 ÷ 0.11

19.1x

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Northern Oil and Gas is overvalued based on earnings compared to the US Oil and Gas industry average.
  • Northern Oil and Gas is overvalued based on earnings compared to the United States of America market.
Price based on expected Growth
Does Northern Oil and Gas's expected growth come at a high price?
Raw Data
AMEX:NOG PEG (Price to Earnings to Growth) Ratio Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
PE Ratio See PE Ratio Section 19.1x
Net Income Annual Growth Rate See Future Growth Section.
Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Earnings of 5 Analysts
67.1%per year
United States of America Oil and Gas Industry PEG Ratio Median Figure of 78 Publicly-Listed Oil and Gas Companies 0.36x
United States of America Market PEG Ratio Median Figure of 2,125 Publicly-Listed Companies 1.52x

*Line of best fit is calculated by linear regression .

AMEX:NOG PEG (Price to Earnings to Growth) Ratio Calculation
Calculation Outcome
PEG Ratio

= PE Ratio ÷ Net Income Annual Growth Rate

= 19.1x ÷ 67.1%

0.28x

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Northern Oil and Gas is good value based on expected growth next year.
Price based on value of assets
What value do investors place on Northern Oil and Gas's assets?
Raw Data
AMEX:NOG PB (Price to Book) Ratio Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Book Value per Share Company Filings (2019-03-31) in USD $0.83
AMEX:NOG Share Price * AMEX (2019-06-17) in USD $2.05
United States of America Oil and Gas Industry PB Ratio Median Figure of 196 Publicly-Listed Oil and Gas Companies 0.97x
United States of America Market PB Ratio Median Figure of 5,245 Publicly-Listed Companies 1.79x
AMEX:NOG PB (Price to Book) Ratio Calculation
Calculation Outcome
PB Ratio

= AMEX:NOG Share Price ÷ Book Value per Share (both in USD)

= 2.05 ÷ 0.83

2.46x

* Primary Listing of Northern Oil and Gas.

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Northern Oil and Gas is overvalued based on assets compared to the US Oil and Gas industry average.
X
Value checks
We assess Northern Oil and Gas's value by looking at:
  1. Is the discounted cash flow value less than 20%, or 40% of the share price? (2 checks) ( Click here or on bar chart for details of DCF calculation. )
  2. Is the PE ratio less than the market average, and/ or less than the Oil and Gas industry average (and greater than 0)? (2 checks)
  3. Is the PEG ratio within a reasonable range (0 to 1)? (1 check)
  4. Is the PB ratio less than the Oil and Gas industry average (and greater than 0)? (1 check)
  5. Northern Oil and Gas has a total score of 3/6, see the detailed checks below.

    Note: We use GAAP Earnings per Share in all our calculations including PE and PEG Ratio.

    Full details on the Value part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

NOG Future Performance

 How is Northern Oil and Gas expected to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 5 analysts?

The future performance of a company is measured in the same way as past performance, by looking at estimated growth and how much profit it is expected to make.

Future estimates come from professional analysts. Just like forecasting the weather, they don’t always get it right!
Annual Growth Rate
67.1%
Expected annual growth in earnings.
Earnings growth vs Low Risk Savings
Is Northern Oil and Gas expected to grow at an attractive rate?
  • Northern Oil and Gas's earnings growth is expected to exceed the low risk savings rate of 2.7%.
Growth vs Market Checks
  • Northern Oil and Gas's earnings growth is expected to exceed the United States of America market average.
  • Northern Oil and Gas's revenue growth is expected to exceed the United States of America market average.
Annual Growth Rates Comparison
Raw Data
AMEX:NOG Future Growth Rates Data Sources
Data Point Source Value (per year)
AMEX:NOG Future Earnings Growth Rate Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Earnings of 5 Analysts 67.1%
AMEX:NOG Future Revenue Growth Rate Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Revenue of 5 Analysts 16.2%
United States of America Oil and Gas Industry Earnings Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 12.4%
United States of America Oil and Gas Industry Revenue Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 3.9%
United States of America Market Earnings Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 13.8%
United States of America Market Revenue Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 7.3%

*Line of best fit is calculated by linear regression .

Industry and Market average data is calculated daily.

Learn more about our growth rate calculations in Simply Wall St’s analysis model.

Analysts growth expectations
Raw Data
AMEX:NOG Analysts Growth Expectations Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Past Financials Company Filings (2 months ago) See Below
Future Estimates Average of up to 5 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See Below
All numbers in USD Millions and using Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.
AMEX:NOG Future Estimates Data
Date (Data in USD Millions) Revenue Cash Flow Net Income * Avg. No. Analysts
2021-12-31 812 520 252 1
2020-12-31 777 491 243 3
2019-12-31 669 431 65 3
AMEX:NOG Past Financials Data
Date (Data in USD Millions) Revenue Cash Flow Net Income *
2019-03-31 490 298 34
2018-12-31 449 244 144
2018-09-30 376 134 -98
2018-06-30 293 107 -134
2018-03-31 238 89 -23
2017-12-31 203 73 -9
2017-09-30 180 70 2
2017-06-30 169 73 -27
2017-03-31 163 76 -150
2016-12-31 144 102 -293
2016-09-30 137 170 -453
2016-06-30 144 194 -731

*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.

Super high growth metrics
High Growth Checks
  • Northern Oil and Gas's earnings are expected to grow significantly at over 20% yearly.
  • Northern Oil and Gas's revenue is expected to grow by 16.2% yearly, however this is not considered high growth (20% yearly).
Past and Future Earnings per Share
The accuracy of the analysts who estimate the future performance data can be gauged below. We look back 3 years and see if they were any good at predicting what actually occurred. We also show the highest and lowest estimates looking forward to see if there is a wide range.
Raw Data
AMEX:NOG Past and Future Earnings per Share
Data Point Source Value
Past Financials Company Filings (2 months ago) See Below
Future Estimates Average of up to 5 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See Below

All data from Northern Oil and Gas Company Filings, last reported 2 months ago, and in Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.

AMEX:NOG Future Estimates Data
Date (Data in USD Millions) EPS * EPS High Estimate EPS Low Estimate Avg. No. Analysts
2021-12-31 0.66 0.72 0.59 2.00
2020-12-31 0.64 0.77 0.52 5.00
2019-12-31 0.45 0.64 0.26 2.00
AMEX:NOG Past Financials Data
Date (Data in USD Millions) EPS *
2019-03-31 0.11
2018-12-31 0.61
2018-09-30 -0.63
2018-06-30 -1.38
2018-03-31 -0.37
2017-12-31 -0.15
2017-09-30 0.04
2017-06-30 -0.44
2017-03-31 -2.45
2016-12-31 -4.80
2016-09-30 -7.43
2016-06-30 -12.01

*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.

Performance in 3 years
In the same way as past performance we look at the future estimated return (profit) compared to the available funds. We do this looking forward 3 years.
  • Unable to establish if Northern Oil and Gas will efficiently use shareholders’ funds in the future without estimates of Return on Equity.
X
Future performance checks
We assess Northern Oil and Gas's future performance by looking at:
  1. Is the annual earnings growth rate expected to beat the low risk savings rate, plus a premium to keep pace with inflation?
  2. Is the annual earnings growth rate expected to beat the average growth rate in earnings of the United States of America market? (1 check)
  3. Is the annual revenue growth rate expected to beat the average growth rate in revenue of the United States of America market? (1 check)
  4. Is the annual earnings growth rate expected to be above 20%? (1 check)
  5. Is the annual revenue growth rate expected to be above 20%? (1 check)
  6. Is the Return on Equity in 3 years expected to be over 20%? (1 check)
Some of the above checks will fail if the company is expected to be loss making in the relevant year.
Northern Oil and Gas has a total score of 4/6, see the detailed checks below.

Note 1: We use GAAP Net Income Excluding Exceptional Items for our Earnings in all our calculations.

Full details on the Future part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

NOG Past Performance

  How has Northern Oil and Gas performed over the past 5 years?

The past performance of a company can be measured by how much growth it has experienced and how much profit it makes relative to the funds and assets it has available.
Past earnings growth
Below we compare Northern Oil and Gas's growth in the last year to its industry (Oil and Gas).
Past Earnings growth analysis
We also check if the company has grown in the past 5 years, and whether it has maintained that growth in the year.
  • Northern Oil and Gas's year on year earnings growth rate has been positive over the past 5 years.
  • Northern Oil and Gas has become profitable in the last year making the earnings growth rate difficult to compare to the 5-year average.
  • Northern Oil and Gas has become profitable in the last year making it difficult to compare the US Oil and Gas industry average.
Earnings and Revenue History
Northern Oil and Gas's revenue and profit over the past 5 years is shown below, any years where they have experienced a loss will show up in red.
Raw Data

All data from Northern Oil and Gas Company Filings, last reported 2 months ago, and in Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.

AMEX:NOG Past Revenue, Cash Flow and Net Income Data
Date (Data in USD Millions) Revenue Net Income * G+A Expenses R&D Expenses
2019-03-31 489.82 33.56 18.95
2018-12-31 448.62 143.69 14.57
2018-09-30 375.56 -98.45 12.67
2018-06-30 292.92 -133.52 12.39
2018-03-31 237.95 -23.17 13.46
2017-12-31 203.38 -9.19 15.40
2017-09-30 180.15 2.32 16.06
2017-06-30 168.63 -27.21 13.76
2017-03-31 163.00 -149.99 14.03
2016-12-31 144.21 -293.49 14.76
2016-09-30 136.72 -453.48 16.84
2016-06-30 143.78 -731.10 18.83
2016-03-31 161.67 -872.18 18.50
2015-12-31 181.11 -975.35 19.04
2015-09-30 230.85 -699.46 17.63
2015-06-30 293.23 -318.23 17.66
2015-03-31 345.98 -72.58 17.38
2014-12-31 387.94 163.75 17.60
2014-09-30 392.59 77.56 16.61
2014-06-30 382.77 21.28 16.65
2014-03-31 345.92 50.71 16.58
2013-12-31 334.27 53.07 16.58
2013-09-30 317.49 55.22 15.55
2013-06-30 292.80 53.82 15.95
2013-03-31 284.56 72.43 16.45
2012-12-31 268.33 72.28 17.15
2012-09-30 244.79 51.35 17.18
2012-06-30 211.69 79.67 16.69

*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.

Performance last year
We want to ensure a company is making the most of what it has available. This is done by comparing the return (profit) to a company's available funds, assets and capital.
  • Northern Oil and Gas has not efficiently used shareholders’ funds last year (Return on Equity less than 20%).
  • Northern Oil and Gas used its assets more efficiently than the US Oil and Gas industry average last year based on Return on Assets.
  • Northern Oil and Gas has significantly improved its use of capital last year versus 3 years ago (Return on Capital Employed).
X
Past performance checks
We assess Northern Oil and Gas's performance over the past 5 years by checking for:
  1. Has earnings increased in past 5 years? (1 check)
  2. Has the earnings growth in the last year exceeded that of the Oil and Gas industry? (1 check)
  3. Is the recent earnings growth over the last year higher than the average annual growth over the past 5 years? (1 check)
  4. Is the Return on Equity (ROE) higher than 20%? (1 check)
  5. Is the Return on Assets (ROA) above industry average? (1 check)
  6. Has the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) increased from 3 years ago? (1 check)
The above checks will fail if the company has reported a loss in the most recent earnings report. Some checks require at least 3 or 5 years worth of data.
Northern Oil and Gas has a total score of 3/6, see the detailed checks below.

Note: We use GAAP Net Income excluding extraordinary items in all our calculations.

Full details on the Past part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

NOG Health

 How is Northern Oil and Gas's financial health and their level of debt?

A company's financial position is much like your own financial position, it includes everything you own (assets) and owe (liabilities).

The boxes below represent the relative size of what makes up Northern Oil and Gas's finances.

The net worth of a company is the difference between its assets and liabilities.
Net Worth
  • Northern Oil and Gas's short term (1 year) commitments are greater than its holdings of cash and other short term assets.
  • Northern Oil and Gas's long term commitments exceed its cash and other short term assets.
Balance sheet
This treemap shows a more detailed breakdown of Northern Oil and Gas's finances. If any of them are yellow this indicates they may be out of proportion and red means they relate to one of the checks below.
Assets
Liabilities and shares
The 'shares' portion represents any funds contributed by the owners (shareholders) and any profits.
  • High level of physical assets or inventory.
  • Debt is not covered by short term assets, assets are 0.1x debt.
Historical Debt
Nearly all companies have debt. Debt in itself isn’t bad, however if the debt is too high, or the company can’t afford to pay the interest on its debts this may have impacts in the future.

The graphic below shows equity (available funds) and debt, we ideally want to see the red area (debt) decreasing.

If there is any debt we look at the companies capability to repay it, and whether the level has increased over the past 5 years.
Raw Data

All data from Northern Oil and Gas Company Filings, last reported 2 months ago.

AMEX:NOG Past Debt and Equity Data
Date (Data in USD Millions) Total Equity Total Debt Cash & Short Term Investments
2019-03-31 312.76 848.45 3.94
2018-12-31 429.86 848.39 2.36
2018-09-30 11.21 795.82 112.97
2018-06-30 -147.82 845.69 200.92
2018-03-31 -488.78 980.78 89.47
2017-12-31 -490.84 979.32 102.18
2017-09-30 -470.60 846.12 6.78
2017-06-30 -455.47 845.28 3.81
2017-03-31 -470.09 823.45 5.52
2016-12-31 -487.42 832.63 6.49
2016-09-30 -476.06 807.79 3.32
2016-06-30 -429.80 818.95 3.67
2016-03-31 -322.51 803.12 4.39
2015-12-31 -197.60 835.29 3.39
2015-09-30 -28.34 867.68 7.04
2015-06-30 293.79 885.55 7.11
2015-03-31 542.88 845.68 5.74
2014-12-31 770.86 806.05 9.34
2014-09-30 668.31 736.42 8.05
2014-06-30 609.46 706.80 14.25
2014-03-31 613.23 647.17 8.11
2013-12-31 619.83 584.54 5.69
2013-09-30 600.87 554.91 11.87
2013-06-30 623.46 510.28 18.10
2013-03-31 596.66 439.00 8.48
2012-12-31 586.19 424.00 13.39
2012-09-30 565.38 368.00 8.23
2012-06-30 558.24 300.00 25.17
  • Northern Oil and Gas's level of debt (271.3%) compared to net worth is high (greater than 40%).
  • The level of debt compared to net worth has increased over the past 5 years (105.6% vs 271.3% today).
  • Debt is well covered by operating cash flow (35.1%, greater than 20% of total debt).
  • Interest payments on debt are well covered by earnings (EBIT is 3.7x coverage).
X
Financial health checks
We assess Northern Oil and Gas's financial health by checking for:
  1. Are short term assets greater than short term liabilities? (1 check)
  2. Are short term assets greater than long term liabilities? (1 check)
  3. Has the debt to equity ratio increased in the past 5 years? (1 check)
  4. Is the debt to equity ratio over 40%? (1 check)
  5. Is the debt covered by operating cash flow? (1 check)
  6. Are earnings greater than 5x the interest on debt (if company pays interest at all)? (1 check)
  7. Northern Oil and Gas has a total score of 2/6, see the detailed checks below.
For companies that are loss making and have been so on average in the past we replace the last 2 checks with:
  1. Does cash and short term investments cover stable operating expenses (recurring G&A and R&D) for more than 3 years? (1 check)
  2. Does cash and short term investments cover growing operating expenses (recurring G&A and R&D) for more than 3 years? (1 check)


Full details on the Health part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

NOG Dividends

 What is Northern Oil and Gas's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividends are regular cash payments to you from the company, similar to a bank paying you interest on a savings account.
Annual Dividend Income
Dividend payments
0%
Current annual income from Northern Oil and Gas dividends.
If you bought $2,000 of Northern Oil and Gas shares you are expected to receive $0 in your first year as a dividend.
Dividend Amount
Here we look how much dividend is being paid, if any. Is it above what you can get in a savings account? It is up there with the best dividend paying companies?
  • Unable to evaluate Northern Oil and Gas's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers as the company has not reported any payouts.
  • Unable to evaluate Northern Oil and Gas's dividend against the top 25% market benchmark as the company has not reported any payouts.
Annualized Historical and Future Dividends
It is important to see if the dividend for a company is stable, and not wildly increasing/decreasing each year. This graph shows you the historical rate to count toward your assessment of the stock.

We also check to see if the dividend has increased in the past 10 years.
Raw Data
AMEX:NOG Annualized Past and Future Dividends
Data Point Source Value
Past Annualized Dividend Yield S&P Global Market Data See Below
Past Dividends per Share Company Filings/ Annualized Dividend Payments See Below
Future Dividends per Share Estimates Average of up to 5 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See Below
United States of America Oil and Gas Industry Average Dividend Yield Market Cap Weighted Average of 67 Stocks 3.9%
United States of America Market Average Dividend Yield Market Cap Weighted Average of 2011 Stocks 2.5%
United States of America Minimum Threshold Dividend Yield 10th Percentile 0.8%
United States of America Bottom 25% Dividend Yield 25th Percentile 1.5%
United States of America Top 25% Dividend Yield 75th Percentile 3.7%

Industry and Market average data is calculated daily.

Note all dividend per share amounts are annualized and not quarterly or other period.

AMEX:NOG Future Dividends Estimate Data
Date (Data in $) Dividend per Share (annual) Avg. No. Analysts
2021-12-31
2020-12-31
2019-12-31

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Unable to perform a dividend volatility check as Northern Oil and Gas has not reported any payouts.
  • Unable to verify if Northern Oil and Gas's dividend has been increasing as the company has not reported any payouts.
Current Payout to shareholders
What portion of Northern Oil and Gas's earnings are paid to the shareholders as a dividend.
  • Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as Northern Oil and Gas has not reported any payouts.
Future Payout to shareholders
  • Insufficient estimate data to determine if a dividend will be paid in 3 years and that it will be sustainable.
X
Income/ dividend checks
We assess Northern Oil and Gas's dividend by checking for:
  1. Firstly is the company paying a notable dividend (greater than 0.8%) - if not then the rest of the checks are ignored.
  2. Is current dividend yield above the bottom 25% of dividend payers? (1 check)
  3. Is current dividend yield above the top 25% of dividend payers? (1 check)
  4. Have they paid a dividend for 10 years, and during this period has the dividend been volatile (drop of more than 25%)? (1 check)
  5. If they have paid a dividend for 10 years has it increased in this time? (1 check)
  6. How sustainable is the dividend, can Northern Oil and Gas afford to pay it from its earnings today and in 3 years (Payout ratio less than 90%)? (2 checks)
  7. Northern Oil and Gas has a total score of 0/6, see the detailed checks below.


Full details on the Dividends part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

NOG Management

 What is the CEO of Northern Oil and Gas's salary, the management and board of directors tenure and is there insider trading?

Management is one of the most important areas of a company. We look at unreasonable CEO compensation, how long the team and board of directors have been around for and insider trading.
CEO
Brandon Elliott
COMPENSATION $1,161,842
AGE 46
TENURE AS CEO 0.9 years
CEO Bio

Mr. Brandon R. Elliott, CFA, has been Chief Executive officer of Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. since July 5, 2018. Mr. Elliott was Chief Operating Officer of Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. from May 24, 2018 to July 5, 2018 and is responsible for the day-to-day operations of it and investor relations. He was President at Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. since May 24, 2018 until July 5, 2018. Mr. Elliott served as an Executive Vice President of Corporate Development & Strategy at Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. since January 2013 until May 2018 and served as its Interim President since January 31, 2018 until May 2018. He also serves as Principal Executive Officer of Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. In this role, he contributes to Northern Oil and Gas's corporate strategy, in addition to articulating asset value and the business model to the investment community. He is a Market Generalist with an extensive knowledge base in the energy and transportation sectors. He has a combination of corporate experience and significant investment experience. He served as Vice President of Investor Relations at CONSOL Energy Inc., a Fortune 500 coal and natural gas company, since August 18, 2010 until 2012. Prior to CONSOL, he served 10 years at Friess Associates LLC, managers of The Brandywine Funds, as Portfolio Manager and Equity Research Analyst. He received the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) designation in 2001 and is a member of the National Investor Relations Institute. Mr. Elliott graduated from Dartmouth College with a B.A. in Psychology.

CEO Compensation
  • Brandon's compensation has increased in line with Northern Oil and Gas recently becoming profitable.
  • Brandon's remuneration is lower than average for companies of similar size in United States of America.
Management Team Tenure

Average tenure and age of the Northern Oil and Gas management team in years:

1
Average Tenure
39.5
Average Age
  • The average tenure for the Northern Oil and Gas management team is less than 2 years, this suggests a new team.
Management Team

Brandon Elliott

TITLE
Chief Executive Officer
COMPENSATION
$1M
AGE
46
TENURE
0.9 yrs

Mike Reger

TITLE
Founder
COMPENSATION
$3M
AGE
42
TENURE
0.9 yrs

Nick O’Grady

TITLE
Chief Financial Officer
COMPENSATION
$1M
AGE
39
TENURE
1 yrs

Chad Allen

TITLE
Chief Accounting Officer
COMPENSATION
$571K
AGE
36
TENURE
2.8 yrs

Erik Romslo

TITLE
Executive VP
COMPENSATION
$1M
AGE
40
TENURE
7.7 yrs

Adam Dirlam

TITLE
Executive Vice President of Land
COMPENSATION
$637K
AGE
34
TENURE
1.1 yrs
Board of Directors Tenure

Average tenure and age of the Northern Oil and Gas board of directors in years:

2.4
Average Tenure
57
Average Age
  • The average tenure for the Northern Oil and Gas board of directors is less than 3 years, this suggests a new board.
Board of Directors

Bahram Akradi

TITLE
Chairman of the Board
COMPENSATION
$650K
AGE
57
TENURE
1.3 yrs

Mike Reger

TITLE
Founder
COMPENSATION
$3M
AGE
42
TENURE
2.4 yrs

Jack King

TITLE
Independent Director
COMPENSATION
$293K
AGE
66
TENURE
12.1 yrs

Lisa Meier

TITLE
Independent Director
COMPENSATION
$286K
AGE
45
TENURE
11.8 yrs

Robert Grabb

TITLE
Independent Director
COMPENSATION
$239K
AGE
66
TENURE
12.1 yrs

Michael Frantz

TITLE
Independent Director
COMPENSATION
$273K
AGE
33
TENURE
2.8 yrs

Michael Popejoy

TITLE
Independent Director
COMPENSATION
$234K
AGE
64
TENURE
2.4 yrs

Ernie Easley

TITLE
Independent Director
COMPENSATION
$163K
AGE
59
TENURE
1 yrs

Joseph Lenz

TITLE
Director
AGE
29
TENURE
0.8 yrs
Who owns this company?
Recent Insider Trading
  • More shares have been bought than sold by Northern Oil and Gas insiders in the past 3 months.
Recent Insider Transactions
Announced Type Name Entity Role Start End Shares Max Price ($) Value ($)
10. Jun 19 Buy Adam Dirlam Individual 06. Jun 19 06. Jun 19 12,755 $1.94 $24,728
06. Jun 19 Buy Roy Easley Individual 05. Jun 19 05. Jun 19 40,000 $1.97 $78,800
04. Jun 19 Buy Nicholas O'Grady Individual 31. May 19 31. May 19 50,000 $2.02 $101,000
03. Jun 19 Buy Michael Reger Individual 31. May 19 31. May 19 49,000 $2.04 $99,960
29. May 19 Buy Cresta Investments, LLC Company 24. May 19 28. May 19 1,000,060 $2.09 $2,058,110
28. May 19 Buy Nicholas O'Grady Individual 24. May 19 24. May 19 75,000 $2.02 $151,260
16. May 19 Buy Cresta Investments, LLC Company 14. May 19 16. May 19 1,000,000 $2.32 $2,231,267
16. May 19 Buy Michael Reger Individual 14. May 19 15. May 19 200,000 $2.22 $441,150
19. Mar 19 Buy Michael Reger Individual 15. Mar 19 15. Mar 19 100,000 $2.51 $251,110
27. Feb 19 Sell W Energy Partners LLC Company 22. Feb 19 26. Feb 19 -838,878 $2.48 $-2,001,717
22. Feb 19 Sell W Energy Partners LLC Company 19. Feb 19 21. Feb 19 -605,842 $2.54 $-1,535,086
15. Feb 19 Sell W Energy Partners LLC Company 13. Feb 19 15. Feb 19 -813,373 $2.55 $-2,012,571
12. Feb 19 Sell W Energy Partners LLC Company 08. Feb 19 12. Feb 19 -769,700 $2.34 $-1,735,999
08. Feb 19 Sell W Energy Partners LLC Company 05. Feb 19 07. Feb 19 -723,792 $2.44 $-1,679,357
04. Feb 19 Sell W Energy Partners LLC Company 31. Jan 19 04. Feb 19 -730,825 $2.56 $-1,852,406
30. Jan 19 Sell W Energy Partners LLC Company 28. Jan 19 30. Jan 19 -734,847 $2.57 $-1,863,089
26. Jan 19 Sell W Energy Partners LLC Company 23. Jan 19 25. Jan 19 -811,419 $2.67 $-2,105,659
22. Jan 19 Sell W Energy Partners LLC Company 17. Jan 19 22. Jan 19 -759,136 $2.77 $-2,032,494
16. Jan 19 Sell W Energy Partners LLC Company 14. Jan 19 14. Jan 19 -3,653,650 $3.49 $-11,066,663
16. Jan 19 Sell W Energy Partners LLC Company 15. Jan 19 16. Jan 19 -545,000 $2.56 $-1,381,575
20. Dec 18 Sell Robert Grabb Individual 04. Dec 18 04. Dec 18 -1,978 $2.71 $-5,360
16. Nov 18 Sell Brandon Elliott Individual 16. Nov 18 16. Nov 18 -50,000 $2.77 $-138,365
16. Nov 18 Buy Brandon Elliott Individual 16. Nov 18 16. Nov 18 50,000 $2.83 $141,415
14. Nov 18 Buy Roy Easley Individual 13. Nov 18 14. Nov 18 40,000 $2.63 $104,892
09. Nov 18 Sell W Energy Partners LLC Company 07. Nov 18 07. Nov 18 -2,865,329 $3.49 $-9,999,998
X
Management checks
We assess Northern Oil and Gas's management by checking for:
  1. Is the CEO's compensation unreasonable compared to market cap? (1 check)
  2. Has the CEO's compensation increased more than 20% whilst the EPS is down more then 20%? (1 check)
  3. Is the average tenure of the management team less than 2 years? (1 check)
  4. Is the average tenure of the board of directors team less than 3 years? (1 check)
  5. Northern Oil and Gas has a total score of 0/6, this is not included on the snowflake, see the detailed checks below.


Note: We use the top 6 management executives and board members in our calculations.

Note 2: Insider trading include any internal stakeholders and these transactions .

Full details on the Management part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

NOG News

Simply Wall St News

If You Had Bought Northern Oil and Gas (NYSEMKT:NOG) Stock Five Years Ago, You'd Be Sitting On A 86% Loss, Today

(NYSEMKT:NOG) for five whole years - as the share price tanked 86%. … View our latest analysis for Northern Oil and Gas To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. … One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

Simply Wall St -

Is Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.’s (NYSEMKT:NOG) 34% ROCE Any Good?

To be precise, we'll consider its Return On Capital Employed (ROCE), as that will inform our view of the quality of the business. … Understanding Return On Capital Employed (ROCE). … ROCE is a measure of a company's yearly pre-tax profit (its return), relative to the capital employed in the business.

Simply Wall St -

What Should Investors Know About Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.'s (NYSEMKT:NOG) Growth?

(NYSEMKT:NOG) announced its earnings update. … it seems that analyst forecasts are substantially optimistic, … with profits predicted to ramp up by an impressive 66% next year,

Simply Wall St -

Can Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.'s (NYSEMKT:NOG) ROE Continue To Surpass The Industry Average?

With that in mind, this article will work through how we can use Return On Equity (ROE) to better understand a business. … Our data shows Northern Oil and Gas has a return on equity of 33% for the last year. … That means that for every $1 worth of shareholders' equity, it generated $0.33 in profit.

Simply Wall St -

What Should Investors Know About Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.'s (NYSEMKT:NOG) Long Term Outlook?

The most recent earnings release Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.'s (NYSEMKT:NOG) announced in December 2018 … finally turned profitable

Simply Wall St -

Have Insiders Been Buying Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NYSEMKT:NOG) Shares This Year?

So shareholders might well want to know whether insiders have been buying or selling shares in Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. … Over the last year, we can see that the biggest insider purchase was by Chairman of the Board Bahram Akradi for US$12m worth of shares, at about US$1.50 per share. … In the last twelve months there was more buying than selling by Northern Oil and Gas insiders

Simply Wall St -

How Does Investing In Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NYSEMKT:NOG) Impact The Volatility Of Your Portfolio?

Modern finance theory considers volatility to be a measure of risk, and there are two main types of price volatility. … Beta can be a useful tool to understand how much a stock is influenced by market risk (volatility). … Any stock with a beta of greater than one is considered more volatile than the market, while those with a beta below one are either less volatile or poorly correlated with the market.

Simply Wall St -

What Kind Of Shareholder Owns Most Northern Oil and Gas Inc (NYSEMKT:NOG) Stock?

If you want to know who really controls Northern Oil and Gas Inc (NYSEMKT:NOG), then you'll have to look at the makeup of its share registry. … It has a market capitalization of US$982m, which means it would generally expect to see some institutions on the share registry. … institutions are noticeable on the share registry

Simply Wall St -

Who Are The Top Investors In Northern Oil and Gas Inc (NYSEMKT:NOG)?

Today, I will be analyzing Northern Oil and Gas Inc’s (NYSEMKT:NOG) recent ownership structure, an important but not-so-popular subject among individual investors. … When it comes to ownership structure of a company, the impact has been observed in both the long-and short-term performance of shares. … The implications of these institutions’ actions can either benefit or hinder individual investors, so it is important to understand the ownership composition of your stock investment.

Simply Wall St -

Analysts Expect Breakeven For Northern Oil and Gas Inc (NYSEMKT:NOG)

The company’s loss has recently broadened since it announced a -US$9.19m loss in the full financial year, compared to the latest trailing-twelve-month loss of -US$23.17m, moving it further away from breakeven? … The most pressing concern for investors is NOG’s path to profitability – when will it breakeven. … In this article, I will touch on the expectations for NOG’s growth and when analysts expect the company to become profitable

Simply Wall St -

NOG Company Info

Description

Northern Oil and Gas, Inc., an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, exploitation, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas properties in the United States. The company primarily holds interests in the Bakken and Three Forks formations in the Williston Basin of North Dakota and Montana. As of December 31, 2018, it owned working interests in 4,792 gross producing wells; and had proved reserves of 135.5 million barrels of oil equivalent. The company is based in Minnetonka, Minnesota.

Details
Name: Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.
NOG
Exchange: AMEX
Founded:
$788,317,871
384,545,303
Website: http://www.northernoil.com
Address: Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.
601 Carlson Parkway,
Suite 990,
Minnetonka,
Minnesota, 55305,
United States
Listings
Exchange Symbol Ticker Symbol Security Exchange Country Currency Listed on
AMEX NOG Common Stock NYSE MKT LLC US USD 21. Feb 2006
DB 4LT Common Stock Deutsche Boerse AG DE EUR 21. Feb 2006
Number of employees
Current staff
Staff numbers
20
Northern Oil and Gas employees.
Industry
Oil and Gas Exploration and Production
Energy
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
Area Date (UTC time)
Company Analysis updated: 2019/06/18 00:04
End of day share price update: 2019/06/17 00:00
Last estimates confirmation: 2019/06/04
Last earnings filing: 2019/05/10
Last earnings reported: 2019/03/31
Last annual earnings reported: 2018/12/31


All dates and times in UTC. All financial data provided by Standard & Poor’s Capital IQ.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.