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XOM

Exxon Mobil NYSE:XOM Stock Report

Last Price

US$85.75

Market Cap

US$357.4b

7D

-8.0%

1Y

48.9%

Updated

24 Sep, 2022

Data

Company Financials +
XOM fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation4/6
Future Growth0/6
Past Performance3/6
Financial Health4/6
Dividends5/6

XOM Stock Overview

Exxon Mobil Corporation explores for and produces crude oil and natural gas in the United States and internationally.

Exxon Mobil Corporation Competitors

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Exxon Mobil
Historical stock prices
Current Share PriceUS$85.75
52 Week HighUS$105.57
52 Week LowUS$57.96
Beta1.06
1 Month Change-13.46%
3 Month Change-1.32%
1 Year Change48.90%
3 Year Change19.96%
5 Year Change4.60%
Change since IPO586.00%

Recent News & Updates

Sep 22
Quick Takes: Palo Alto, Alphabet, Meta & More

Quick Takes: Palo Alto, Alphabet, Meta & More

Vladimr Putin’s latest mobilization caused the oil price to spike yesterday morning. Somewhat predictably, energy stocks opened higher, - but then very quickly reversed course, along with the price of crude, when it emerged that US inventories increased by 1.1 million barrels from a week earlier. Exxon (NYSE: XOM), Chevron (NYSE: CVX) and Occidental Petroleum (NYSE: OXY) all closed lower on the day.

Sep 14

Exxon Mobil: The Crude Reality

Summary Exxon Mobil's stock has fallen from its highs along with the price of oil in anticipation of a looming recession. Today, CPI came in hot making it a lock the Fed is going to continue to pummel the markets with rate hikes. All three indices are getting crushed today by 3 to 4%, the Dow is down over 1,000 points at the time of this writing. Nevertheless, now is exactly the time to buy Exxon Mobil. In the following article, I make the undeniable bull case for including the Texas oil titan in your portfolio. What happened? CPI came in above expectations on all fronts headline, core, year-over-year, and month over month. CPI Breakout Chart Bloomberg.com The headline number year-over-year came in at 8.3% versus 8.0% expected. Despite energy down big, Core CPI still came in hot at 6.3% versus 6.0% expected. The big miss was month-over-month coming in at +0.1% instead of -0.1% expected. This caused the treasury rate curve inversion to deepen. CNBC.com Furthermore, all three indices are getting pummeled beyond belief at the time of this writing. CNBC.com Even so, Exxon Mobil Corporation's (NYSE:XOM) stock is holding up quite well on a relative basis. Exxon Mobil Current Chart Finviz The stock is only down slightly today at 1.3% while the overall markets are down substantially more. What's more, this has been the case for the balance of the year. Exxon Mobil versus S&P 500 Year-to-date CNBC.com Year-to-date, Exxon Mobil's stock is up 58% while the S&P 500 (SPY) is down 17%. This massive outperformance speaks to Exxon Mobil's amazingly strong relative strength versus the market overall. This begs the question... Why? Why is Exxon Mobil's stock price so resilient in the face of an inflationary environment coupled with a looming recession? Let me lay out the crude realties for your perusal. The Crude Reality explained Why is Exxon Mobil's stock holding up so well in the face of the massive market selloff? I'll tell you why - because it makes for the best possible inflation hedge available at present, a remarkable recession safe haven play. The stock is trading at a historic and relative low valuation, it is a cash flow machine, the company just reported a historically profitable quarter, it gave extremely positive guidance, and the Biden administration just announced it is considering buying oil to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve ("SPR") per Bloomberg. In the following sections I lay out the bull case as to why Exxon Mobil's stock makes for an excellent inflation hedge and recession safe haven play. Let's start by reviewing last quarter's highlights and guidance. Last Quarter Earnings Highlights Exxon Mobil recently reported its second quarter earnings results, and, frankly, knocked the ball out of the park. Exxon Mobil beat on EPS by $0.29 cents, coming in at $4.14, and beat on revenues by $3.62 billion. Exxon Mobil Corporation announced estimated second-quarter 2022 earnings of $17.9 billion, or $4.21 per share assuming dilution. Second-quarter results included a favorable identified item of nearly $300 million associated with the sale of the Barnett Shale Upstream assets. Capital and exploration expenditures were $4.6 billion in the second quarter and $9.5 billion for the first half of 2022. Seeking Alpha Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Darren Woods stated: "Earnings and cash flow benefited from increased production, higher realizations, and tight cost control. Strong second-quarter results reflect our focus on the fundamentals and the investments we put in motion several years ago and sustained through the depths of the pandemic." The Texas oil titan is a cash flow machine Strong earnings drove increased cash flows from operations. Exxon Mobil returned $7.6 billion to shareholders, of which about half was in the form of dividends and the remainder in share repurchases, consistent with the oil giant's previous program. Exxon Mobil stated during its Corporate Plan Update in December that the company expects to repurchase $10 billion shares. Just recently, Exxon actually announced a huge increase to the share buyback program, upping it to $30 billion shares in total through 2023. This move confirms the confidence Exxon Mobil has in the strength of its balance sheet and future prospects for profits. XOM Second quarter capex of $4.6 billion was in line with the full-year range of $21 billion. The fact of the matter is that this quarter's results are important, but it will be the guidance given going forward that will should augur the stock price one way or the other. Let's delve into what lies ahead at this time, shall we? Positive Guidance based on production growth As Chairman-CEO Woods said: For the full year, in the Permian, we expect to achieve 25% production growth for the second consecutive year. In Guyana, our total capacity is now more than 340,000 oil-equivalent barrels per day. XOM The sizable investments Exxon's been making over the past several years puts the company in a great position to deliver increased production at a time when the world needs it most. The Texas oil titan is continuing to increase production of low-cost barrels in Guyana and the Permian all while maximizing output of currently existing facilities as well. Exxon's new Corpus Christi complex was cash and earnings positive in the first half of the year. According to the company, the U.S. Gulf Coast refining capacity is poised to increase by about 250,000 barrels per day with the start-up of the Beaumont refinery expansion project in the first quarter of 2023. Two new LNG projects are also advancing. Coral LNG and Mozambique is set to deliver its first cargo in the second half of this year. The Golden Pass LNG project, which will provide 18 million tons per year of new LNG supplies, remains on schedule to start up in 2024. Once completed, Golden Pass will increase LNG from the Gulf Coast by 20%. In addition, Exxon continues to divest nonstrategic assets at an opportune point in the cycle. It has delivered strong safety and reliability while controlling costs. These moves are improving the asset mix by lowering break-evens and boosting resiliency. The Low Carbon Solutions business continues to grow its portfolio of opportunities with four newly announced carbon capture and storage opportunities in Australia, China, Indonesia and the Netherlands. As you can see, the company is well-positioned for the coming years. Now let's take a closer look at the current market backdrop to see what they will be facing. Tight supply/demand is expected to persist A tight supply/demand environment has developed primarily due to low investment levels during the pandemic. The low supply, coupled with a substantial increase in demand as the pandemic faded, contributed greatly to the rapid increases in prices for crude, natural gas, and refined products. XOM Brent crude price rose by about $22 per barrel, or 27%, versus the fourth quarter of 2021. Today, natural gas prices remain well above the 10-year historical ranges, driven by tight global market conditions and ongoing European supply concerns. Moreover, tight supplies to manufacturers have pushed refining margins to the top of the range. Large annual investments in oil and gas production are required to offset normal depletion, but even more is required to grow net production. Prior to the pandemic, industry investments were below historical levels. XOM The economy-wide shutdowns during the pandemic exacerbated the problem. The industry is currently experiencing tight markets across most types of distillates as supply lags demand recovery. XOM Given the long investment cycle times, growing supply will not happen overnight. Exxon Mobil has actually been leading the way when it comes to increased production due to the fact they have continued to invest throughout the cycle. CEO Woods stated: At Exxon Mobil, throughout this period, we stayed focused on the fundamentals and led our IOC peers in oil and gas investment. We leaned in when others leaned out, including investments in U.S. refining capacity, notably with our Beaumont refinery expansion." XOM Exxon Mobil's refining advantage What's more, there is a clear tightness in refining. The closure rate during the pandemic was three times the rate of the 2008 financial crisis. XOM XOM has the largest refining footprint of all the Big Oil companies at a time of rising margins and increasing demand for gasoline and diesel. XOM Thus, the benefits of a continuing tight supply/demand environment bode extremely well for Exxon Mobil's refining business. Exxon Mobil is a cornerstone holding in my sleep well at night ("SWAN") retirement income portfolio. Therefore, let's now review the state of affairs as it relates to the dividend safety and growth prospects. Dividend review Exxon Mobil is a dividend aristocrat with 40 years of consecutive dividend payments. Seeking Alpha As a former Texas oil man myself, I have a certain affinity for the Texas oil titan. I can say without doubt the company is dedicated to paying the dividend come hell or high water. Dividend summary Seeking Alpha In fact, it has been overtly expressed by management that the company's top priority at this time is return of capital to shareholders as well as long-term capital investments in production to keep the cash flowing in for years to come. The following slide details analyst dividend growth estimates for the coming two years. Consensus Dividend Estimates Seeking Alpha What's more, the company is vastly undervalued at present. Let me explain. Stock fundamentally undervalued Finviz Exxon Mobil is extremely unvalued at the present valuation. Exxon's forward P/E of 9.03 is approximately half of the current S&P 500 forward P/E of 18. The stock, incredibly, is trading for a PEG ratio of 0.43; anything less than 1 is considered to be vastly undervalued. Finally, the Texas oil titan is a free cash flow machine, with $20 billion in cash flow from operations last quarter. It is currently trading for approximately 11.66 times free cash flow, where anything less than 15 times is considered cheap.

Shareholder Returns

XOMUS Oil and GasUS Market
7D-8.0%-9.3%-5.2%
1Y48.9%36.4%-23.0%

Return vs Industry: XOM exceeded the US Oil and Gas industry which returned 36.4% over the past year.

Return vs Market: XOM exceeded the US Market which returned -23.1% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is XOM's price volatile compared to industry and market?
XOM volatility
XOM Average Weekly Movement4.8%
Oil and Gas Industry Average Movement8.0%
Market Average Movement6.9%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market15.8%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market2.8%

Stable Share Price: XOM is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 5% a week.

Volatility Over Time: XOM's weekly volatility (5%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

FoundedEmployeesCEOWebsite
187063,000Darren Woodshttps://corporate.exxonmobil.com

Exxon Mobil Corporation explores for and produces crude oil and natural gas in the United States and internationally. It operates through Upstream, Downstream, and Chemical segments. The company is also involved in the manufacture, trade, transport, and sale of crude oil, natural gas, petroleum products, petrochemicals, and other specialty products; manufactures and sells petrochemicals, including olefins, polyolefins, aromatics, and various other petrochemicals; and captures and stores carbon, hydrogen, and biofuels.

Exxon Mobil Corporation Fundamentals Summary

How do Exxon Mobil's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
XOM fundamental statistics
Market CapUS$357.37b
Earnings (TTM)US$38.95b
Revenue (TTM)US$354.96b

9.2x

P/E Ratio

1.0x

P/S Ratio

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
XOM income statement (TTM)
RevenueUS$354.96b
Cost of RevenueUS$241.40b
Gross ProfitUS$113.56b
Other ExpensesUS$74.61b
EarningsUS$38.95b

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

Oct 28, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)9.35
Gross Margin31.99%
Net Profit Margin10.97%
Debt/Equity Ratio25.4%

How did XOM perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

4.1%

Current Dividend Yield

38%

Payout Ratio