XOM Stock Overview
Exxon Mobil Corporation explores for and produces crude oil and natural gas in the United States and internationally.
Exxon Mobil Corporation Competitors
Price History & Performance
|Historical stock prices|
|Current Share Price||US$87.31|
|52 Week High||US$105.57|
|52 Week Low||US$57.96|
|1 Month Change||-8.66%|
|3 Month Change||-0.27%|
|1 Year Change||43.30%|
|3 Year Change||26.59%|
|5 Year Change||6.85%|
|Change since IPO||598.48%|
Recent News & Updates
Exxon Mobil: On The Move, But Maybe Not In The Direction You Think
Summary Let’s look at the fundamentals of the underlying commodity driving XOM, crude oil. Next, we zoom into the specifics of XOM’s current valuation. What's the technical viewpoint and where might XOM find an important swing low in price? By Levi at StockWaves, Produced with Avi Gilburt Crude oil is a market where fundamentals certainly matter. However, it's also in the commodity family. Commodities are famously driven quite strongly by sentiment. There are times, especially at important turns in price, where the fundamentals do not seem to make sense. At Stock Waves we use both fundamentals and technicals to help us identify high probability setups across the markets. One such setup is now developing in Exxon Mobil (XOM). But, first, please allow me to briefly review what our view has been in energy producers and then we'll dive into where we see the oil majors heading in the next few months. Back on May 27 of this year our senior analyst, Zac Mannes, put out an important and timely update to members. In part, this was the main message: We have now started to raise awareness for our subscribers that we are heading into thick resistance as the confluence of Fibonacci price levels for the targets for most of those moves. There is still room for extensions, but the risk 'skew' is no longer very favorable." In addition, Zac posted a chart of XLE which showed a likely top at the $92.25 area. XLE did indeed find an important swing high at $93.31 on June 8th. MotiveWave So, it has been our stance that energy producers would find themselves in a corrective pattern for some time ahead, through the summer months and into the fall period. What's the current fundamental view for crude oil and energy producers? Our lead fundamental analyst, Lyn Alden, recently published this note regarding both. A Fundamental Note on Oil: This is an environment for the price of oil where managing timeframes is important. In the tactical sense, there are plenty of bearish variables. In the structural sense, there are plenty of bullish variables. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is actively selling oil into the market, and will do so up until the election." YCharts Meanwhile, the Fed is aggressively tightening monetary policy into an economic slowdown, and spiking dollar relative to other currencies in the process. The price of oil in yen, euro, and pound sterling for example is not as weak as the price of oil in dollars." Lyn Alden Lastly, the biggest oil importer in the world, China, has been using a zero-COVID policy that results in rolling lockdowns and reduced oil demand. Those are among the key tactically bearish fundamental variables. The structural undersupply issue is the longer-run bullish variable. There aren't many long-lifetime new projects coming online. Big emerging market sources of demand like India continue to grind higher over the long run." When Treasury market illiquidity or other issues cause the Fed to re-liquefy the global financial system, and/or the next period of economic acceleration comes, and/or technical signals show a clear reversal, I will be tactically bullish on oil again, in line with my structural bullish oil view." And, specifically regarding XOM, here are Lyn's comments: Many oil stocks, like XOM, are trading at reasonable valuations compared to the current and likely future price of oil. And many of them, XOM included, pay higher dividend yields than the broad market. However, it's the rate of change that matters, and they tend to trade directionally similar to the price of the underlying commodity. My view on most oil producers is therefore similar to my view on oil: tactically unclear until we get past the SPR drawdown and other macro factors, but long-term bullish." How Does XOM range vs. its peers? Note the profitability chart from here on Seeking Alpha: Seeking Alpha
Quick Takes: Palo Alto, Alphabet, Meta & More
Vladimr Putin’s latest mobilization caused the oil price to spike yesterday morning. Somewhat predictably, energy stocks opened higher, - but then very quickly reversed course, along with the price of crude, when it emerged that US inventories increased by 1.1 million barrels from a week earlier. Exxon (NYSE: XOM), Chevron (NYSE: CVX) and Occidental Petroleum (NYSE: OXY) all closed lower on the day.
Exxon Mobil: The Crude Reality
Summary Exxon Mobil's stock has fallen from its highs along with the price of oil in anticipation of a looming recession. Today, CPI came in hot making it a lock the Fed is going to continue to pummel the markets with rate hikes. All three indices are getting crushed today by 3 to 4%, the Dow is down over 1,000 points at the time of this writing. Nevertheless, now is exactly the time to buy Exxon Mobil. In the following article, I make the undeniable bull case for including the Texas oil titan in your portfolio. What happened? CPI came in above expectations on all fronts headline, core, year-over-year, and month over month. CPI Breakout Chart Bloomberg.com The headline number year-over-year came in at 8.3% versus 8.0% expected. Despite energy down big, Core CPI still came in hot at 6.3% versus 6.0% expected. The big miss was month-over-month coming in at +0.1% instead of -0.1% expected. This caused the treasury rate curve inversion to deepen. CNBC.com Furthermore, all three indices are getting pummeled beyond belief at the time of this writing. CNBC.com Even so, Exxon Mobil Corporation's (NYSE:XOM) stock is holding up quite well on a relative basis. Exxon Mobil Current Chart Finviz The stock is only down slightly today at 1.3% while the overall markets are down substantially more. What's more, this has been the case for the balance of the year. Exxon Mobil versus S&P 500 Year-to-date CNBC.com Year-to-date, Exxon Mobil's stock is up 58% while the S&P 500 (SPY) is down 17%. This massive outperformance speaks to Exxon Mobil's amazingly strong relative strength versus the market overall. This begs the question... Why? Why is Exxon Mobil's stock price so resilient in the face of an inflationary environment coupled with a looming recession? Let me lay out the crude realties for your perusal. The Crude Reality explained Why is Exxon Mobil's stock holding up so well in the face of the massive market selloff? I'll tell you why - because it makes for the best possible inflation hedge available at present, a remarkable recession safe haven play. The stock is trading at a historic and relative low valuation, it is a cash flow machine, the company just reported a historically profitable quarter, it gave extremely positive guidance, and the Biden administration just announced it is considering buying oil to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve ("SPR") per Bloomberg. In the following sections I lay out the bull case as to why Exxon Mobil's stock makes for an excellent inflation hedge and recession safe haven play. Let's start by reviewing last quarter's highlights and guidance. Last Quarter Earnings Highlights Exxon Mobil recently reported its second quarter earnings results, and, frankly, knocked the ball out of the park. Exxon Mobil beat on EPS by $0.29 cents, coming in at $4.14, and beat on revenues by $3.62 billion. Exxon Mobil Corporation announced estimated second-quarter 2022 earnings of $17.9 billion, or $4.21 per share assuming dilution. Second-quarter results included a favorable identified item of nearly $300 million associated with the sale of the Barnett Shale Upstream assets. Capital and exploration expenditures were $4.6 billion in the second quarter and $9.5 billion for the first half of 2022. Seeking Alpha Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Darren Woods stated: "Earnings and cash flow benefited from increased production, higher realizations, and tight cost control. Strong second-quarter results reflect our focus on the fundamentals and the investments we put in motion several years ago and sustained through the depths of the pandemic." The Texas oil titan is a cash flow machine Strong earnings drove increased cash flows from operations. Exxon Mobil returned $7.6 billion to shareholders, of which about half was in the form of dividends and the remainder in share repurchases, consistent with the oil giant's previous program. Exxon Mobil stated during its Corporate Plan Update in December that the company expects to repurchase $10 billion shares. Just recently, Exxon actually announced a huge increase to the share buyback program, upping it to $30 billion shares in total through 2023. This move confirms the confidence Exxon Mobil has in the strength of its balance sheet and future prospects for profits. XOM Second quarter capex of $4.6 billion was in line with the full-year range of $21 billion. The fact of the matter is that this quarter's results are important, but it will be the guidance given going forward that will should augur the stock price one way or the other. Let's delve into what lies ahead at this time, shall we? Positive Guidance based on production growth As Chairman-CEO Woods said: For the full year, in the Permian, we expect to achieve 25% production growth for the second consecutive year. In Guyana, our total capacity is now more than 340,000 oil-equivalent barrels per day. XOM The sizable investments Exxon's been making over the past several years puts the company in a great position to deliver increased production at a time when the world needs it most. The Texas oil titan is continuing to increase production of low-cost barrels in Guyana and the Permian all while maximizing output of currently existing facilities as well. Exxon's new Corpus Christi complex was cash and earnings positive in the first half of the year. According to the company, the U.S. Gulf Coast refining capacity is poised to increase by about 250,000 barrels per day with the start-up of the Beaumont refinery expansion project in the first quarter of 2023. Two new LNG projects are also advancing. Coral LNG and Mozambique is set to deliver its first cargo in the second half of this year. The Golden Pass LNG project, which will provide 18 million tons per year of new LNG supplies, remains on schedule to start up in 2024. Once completed, Golden Pass will increase LNG from the Gulf Coast by 20%. In addition, Exxon continues to divest nonstrategic assets at an opportune point in the cycle. It has delivered strong safety and reliability while controlling costs. These moves are improving the asset mix by lowering break-evens and boosting resiliency. The Low Carbon Solutions business continues to grow its portfolio of opportunities with four newly announced carbon capture and storage opportunities in Australia, China, Indonesia and the Netherlands. As you can see, the company is well-positioned for the coming years. Now let's take a closer look at the current market backdrop to see what they will be facing. Tight supply/demand is expected to persist A tight supply/demand environment has developed primarily due to low investment levels during the pandemic. The low supply, coupled with a substantial increase in demand as the pandemic faded, contributed greatly to the rapid increases in prices for crude, natural gas, and refined products. XOM Brent crude price rose by about $22 per barrel, or 27%, versus the fourth quarter of 2021. Today, natural gas prices remain well above the 10-year historical ranges, driven by tight global market conditions and ongoing European supply concerns. Moreover, tight supplies to manufacturers have pushed refining margins to the top of the range. Large annual investments in oil and gas production are required to offset normal depletion, but even more is required to grow net production. Prior to the pandemic, industry investments were below historical levels. XOM The economy-wide shutdowns during the pandemic exacerbated the problem. The industry is currently experiencing tight markets across most types of distillates as supply lags demand recovery. XOM Given the long investment cycle times, growing supply will not happen overnight. Exxon Mobil has actually been leading the way when it comes to increased production due to the fact they have continued to invest throughout the cycle. CEO Woods stated: At Exxon Mobil, throughout this period, we stayed focused on the fundamentals and led our IOC peers in oil and gas investment. We leaned in when others leaned out, including investments in U.S. refining capacity, notably with our Beaumont refinery expansion." XOM Exxon Mobil's refining advantage What's more, there is a clear tightness in refining. The closure rate during the pandemic was three times the rate of the 2008 financial crisis. XOM XOM has the largest refining footprint of all the Big Oil companies at a time of rising margins and increasing demand for gasoline and diesel. XOM Thus, the benefits of a continuing tight supply/demand environment bode extremely well for Exxon Mobil's refining business. Exxon Mobil is a cornerstone holding in my sleep well at night ("SWAN") retirement income portfolio. Therefore, let's now review the state of affairs as it relates to the dividend safety and growth prospects. Dividend review Exxon Mobil is a dividend aristocrat with 40 years of consecutive dividend payments. Seeking Alpha As a former Texas oil man myself, I have a certain affinity for the Texas oil titan. I can say without doubt the company is dedicated to paying the dividend come hell or high water. Dividend summary Seeking Alpha In fact, it has been overtly expressed by management that the company's top priority at this time is return of capital to shareholders as well as long-term capital investments in production to keep the cash flowing in for years to come. The following slide details analyst dividend growth estimates for the coming two years. Consensus Dividend Estimates Seeking Alpha What's more, the company is vastly undervalued at present. Let me explain. Stock fundamentally undervalued Finviz Exxon Mobil is extremely unvalued at the present valuation. Exxon's forward P/E of 9.03 is approximately half of the current S&P 500 forward P/E of 18. The stock, incredibly, is trading for a PEG ratio of 0.43; anything less than 1 is considered to be vastly undervalued. Finally, the Texas oil titan is a free cash flow machine, with $20 billion in cash flow from operations last quarter. It is currently trading for approximately 11.66 times free cash flow, where anything less than 15 times is considered cheap.
|XOM||US Oil and Gas||US Market|
Return vs Industry: XOM exceeded the US Oil and Gas industry which returned 36.6% over the past year.
Return vs Market: XOM exceeded the US Market which returned -21.5% over the past year.
|XOM Average Weekly Movement||4.7%|
|Oil and Gas Industry Average Movement||8.1%|
|Market Average Movement||6.9%|
|10% most volatile stocks in US Market||15.6%|
|10% least volatile stocks in US Market||2.8%|
Stable Share Price: XOM is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 5% a week.
Volatility Over Time: XOM's weekly volatility (5%) has been stable over the past year.
About the Company
Exxon Mobil Corporation explores for and produces crude oil and natural gas in the United States and internationally. It operates through Upstream, Downstream, and Chemical segments. The company is also involved in the manufacture, trade, transport, and sale of crude oil, natural gas, petroleum products, petrochemicals, and other specialty products; manufactures and sells petrochemicals, including olefins, polyolefins, aromatics, and various other petrochemicals; and captures and stores carbon, hydrogen, and biofuels.
Exxon Mobil Corporation Fundamentals Summary
|XOM fundamental statistics|
Is XOM overvalued?See Fair Value and valuation analysis
Earnings & Revenue
|XOM income statement (TTM)|
|Cost of Revenue||US$241.40b|
Last Reported Earnings
Jun 30, 2022
Next Earnings Date
Oct 28, 2022
|Earnings per share (EPS)||9.35|
|Net Profit Margin||10.97%|
How did XOM perform over the long term?See historical performance and comparison