A Valuation Deep Dive: Bristow Group (VTOL) After Q3 Earnings Beat and Fitch Rating Boost

Bristow Group (NYSE:VTOL) caught investor attention after posting third quarter earnings well above expectations. This was followed closely by Fitch assigning a ‘BB-’ Long-Term Issuer Default Rating with a Stable Outlook.

See our latest analysis for Bristow Group.

Bristow Group shares are seeing renewed momentum, supported by this earnings beat and a strengthening industry outlook. The 5.7% year-to-date share price return has only partially offset softer patches in recent months. Over the past year, the company’s total shareholder return dipped slightly, but the long-term picture remains positive with a 41% gain over three years. This suggests that patient investors have benefited as the growth narrative develops.

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With shares still trading well below analyst price targets despite recent gains, the key question for investors is whether Bristow Group remains undervalued or if expectation for future growth is already reflected in the current price.

Most Popular Narrative: 21% Undervalued

Bristow Group’s most widely followed narrative puts fair value at $47.50, which is notably above the last close of $37.32. This gap points to optimism around future prospects, and a re-rating could hinge on delivering key growth milestones. Let’s see what’s driving this bullish stance.

The ramp-up and full transition of new long-term government search and rescue contracts in Ireland and the UK are expected to contribute materially to earnings from 2026 onward, ensuring high revenue visibility and stable, recurring cash flows over the next decade.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how this narrative builds such a high fair value? The reasoning combines solid long-term contracts, forward-thinking investments, and expectations of strong cash flow. Want to know which significant financial factors and assumptions support this price target? Only the full narrative reveals the numbers and analysis behind this case.

Result: Fair Value of $47.50 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent supply chain challenges or rising operating expenses could limit Bristow’s ability to meet demand and could threaten future margin expansion.

Find out about the key risks to this Bristow Group narrative.

Another View: What Does the SWS DCF Model Say?

While analyst consensus pegs Bristow Group as 21% undervalued, our SWS DCF model tells a different story. By discounting future cash flows, this method suggests the shares may actually be trading above fair value. How should investors factor in such a stark difference? Are the models missing something, or is the market?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Bristow Group for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 922 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own Bristow Group Narrative

If you have your own perspective or want to dig deeper into Bristow Group’s story, it only takes a few minutes to build your own narrative based on the latest data. Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Bristow Group research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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