Par Pacific (PARR): Reassessing Valuation After a Strong One-Year Rally and Slowing Earnings Growth

Par Pacific Holdings (PARR) has been on a strong run lately, with the stock up sharply over the past year even as revenue and net income growth have cooled. That disconnect is worth unpacking.

See our latest analysis for Par Pacific Holdings.

The 161.8% year to date share price return and 171.9% one year total shareholder return suggest investors have rapidly repriced Par Pacific for stronger mid cycle earnings power, even as the latest pullback hints that momentum may be cooling in the near term.

If Par Pacific’s run has you rethinking where the next big move could come from, it may be worth scanning fast growing stocks with high insider ownership as another way to spot under the radar opportunities.

With earnings growth slowing but the shares still trading at a material discount to some valuation models and modestly below analyst targets, is Par Pacific still a compelling opportunity, or is the market already pricing in its next leg of growth?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 7.8% Undervalued

With Par Pacific last closing at $43.70 against a narrative fair value of $47.38, the latest framework leans toward modest upside from here.

The strategic partnership with Mitsubishi and ENEOS, along with the upcoming SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) project launch, positions Par Pacific for growth in renewable fuels. This enhances market access, leverages global feedstock procurement expertise, and is expected to positively contribute to earnings and net margin expansion starting in 2026.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know how shrinking top line expectations can still support a higher fair value? The answer lies in margin resilience, buyback driven EPS math, and a compact earnings multiple. Curious which assumptions really move that valuation needle?

Result: Fair Value of $47.38 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, the company’s concentrated refining exposure and aging assets mean that outages, stricter regulations, or regional slowdowns could quickly erode margins and challenge that undervaluation case.

Find out about the key risks to this Par Pacific Holdings narrative.

Build Your Own Par Pacific Holdings Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a custom narrative in just a few minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Par Pacific Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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