Why It Might Not Make Sense To Buy Marathon Oil Corporation (NYSE:MRO) For Its Upcoming Dividend

By
Simply Wall St
Published
November 12, 2020
NYSE:MRO

Regular readers will know that we love our dividends at Simply Wall St, which is why it's exciting to see Marathon Oil Corporation (NYSE:MRO) is about to trade ex-dividend in the next 4 days. Investors can purchase shares before the 17th of November in order to be eligible for this dividend, which will be paid on the 10th of December.

Marathon Oil's next dividend payment will be US$0.03 per share, and in the last 12 months, the company paid a total of US$0.12 per share. Last year's total dividend payments show that Marathon Oil has a trailing yield of 2.4% on the current share price of $5.07. If you buy this business for its dividend, you should have an idea of whether Marathon Oil's dividend is reliable and sustainable. We need to see whether the dividend is covered by earnings and if it's growing.

Check out our latest analysis for Marathon Oil

If a company pays out more in dividends than it earned, then the dividend might become unsustainable - hardly an ideal situation. Marathon Oil's dividend is not well covered by earnings, as the company lost money last year. This is not a sustainable state of affairs, so it would be worth investigating if earnings are expected to recover. Given that the company reported a loss last year, we now need to see if it generated enough free cash flow to fund the dividend. If Marathon Oil didn't generate enough cash to pay the dividend, then it must have either paid from cash in the bank or by borrowing money, neither of which is sustainable in the long term. Marathon Oil paid out more free cash flow than it generated - 163%, to be precise - last year, which we think is concerningly high. It's hard to consistently pay out more cash than you generate without either borrowing or using company cash, so we'd wonder how the company justifies this payout level.

Click here to see the company's payout ratio, plus analyst estimates of its future dividends.

historic-dividend
NYSE:MRO Historic Dividend November 12th 2020

Have Earnings And Dividends Been Growing?

Companies with consistently growing earnings per share generally make the best dividend stocks, as they usually find it easier to grow dividends per share. If earnings decline and the company is forced to cut its dividend, investors could watch the value of their investment go up in smoke. Marathon Oil reported a loss last year, but at least the general trend suggests its income has been improving over the past five years. Even so, an unprofitable company whose business does not quickly recover is usually not a good candidate for dividend investors.

Another key way to measure a company's dividend prospects is by measuring its historical rate of dividend growth. Marathon Oil's dividend payments per share have declined at 19% per year on average over the past 10 years, which is uninspiring.

Get our latest analysis on Marathon Oil's balance sheet health here.

To Sum It Up

Is Marathon Oil worth buying for its dividend? First, it's not great to see the company paying a dividend despite being loss-making over the last year. Second, the dividend was not well covered by cash flow." It's not an attractive combination from a dividend perspective, and we're inclined to pass on this one for the time being.

So if you're still interested in Marathon Oil despite it's poor dividend qualities, you should be well informed on some of the risks facing this stock. For example, we've found 2 warning signs for Marathon Oil (1 is potentially serious!) that deserve your attention before investing in the shares.

A common investment mistake is buying the first interesting stock you see. Here you can find a list of promising dividend stocks with a greater than 2% yield and an upcoming dividend.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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