Brigham Minerals (NYSE:MNRL) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of MNRL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

MNRL ($25.41) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] ($62.59)

MNRL fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	3/6
Future Growth	1/6
Past Performance	3/6
Financial Health	4/6
Dividends	2/6

MNRL Stock Overview

Brigham Minerals, Inc. owns and operates a portfolio of mineral and royalty interests in the continental United States.

Rewards

Trading at 59.4% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 2.9% per year

Became profitable this year

Risk Analysis

Dividend of 9.45% is not well covered by earnings or forecast to be in the next 3 years

Significant insider selling over the past 3 months

Shareholders have been diluted in the past year

Brigham Minerals Competitors

Earthstone Energy

NYSE:ESTE

US$1.5b

Kimbell Royalty Partners

NYSE:KRP

US$1.1b

Laredo Petroleum

NYSE:LPI

US$1.2b

Ranger Oil

NasdaqGS:ROCC

US$1.4b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Brigham Minerals
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$25.41
52 Week High	US$33.64
52 Week Low	US$16.51
Beta	1.93
1 Month Change	-17.50%
3 Month Change	-3.86%
1 Year Change	18.52%
3 Year Change	21.41%
5 Year Change	n/a
Change since IPO	27.56%

Recent News & Updates

May 26

We Think Brigham Minerals (NYSE:MNRL) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt

David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the...

Shareholder Returns

	MNRL	US Oil and Gas	US Market
7D	7.3%	1.1%	-2.5%
1Y	18.5%	28.8%	-21.2%

Return vs Industry: MNRL underperformed the US Oil and Gas industry which returned 26.6% over the past year.

Return vs Market: MNRL exceeded the US Market which returned -21.7% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is MNRL's price volatile compared to industry and market?
MNRL volatility
MNRL Average Weekly Movement	7.4%
Oil and Gas Industry Average Movement	8.9%
Market Average Movement	8.1%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	16.9%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	3.2%

Stable Share Price: MNRL is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 7% a week.

Volatility Over Time: MNRL's weekly volatility (7%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
2012	44	Rob Roosa	https://www.brighamminerals.net

Brigham Minerals, Inc. owns and operates a portfolio of mineral and royalty interests in the continental United States. The company primarily holds mineral and royalty interests in the Delaware and Midland Basins in West Texas and New Mexico; the South Central Oklahoma Oil Province and Sooner Trend Anadarko Basin Canadian and Kingfisher Counties plays in the Anadarko Basin of Oklahoma; the Denver-Julesburg Basin in Colorado; and Wyoming and the Williston Basin in North Dakota. As of December 31, 2021, it had mineral and royalty interests in approximately 92,375 net royalty acres; and owned mineral and royalty interests in 8,595 gross productive horizontal wells, which consisted of 7,909 oil wells and 688 natural gas wells.

Brigham Minerals Fundamentals Summary

How do Brigham Minerals's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
MNRL fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$1.56b
Earnings (TTM)	US$72.67m
Revenue (TTM)	US$198.87m

18.3x

P/E Ratio

6.7x

P/S Ratio

Is MNRL overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
MNRL income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$198.87m
Cost of Revenue	US$18.91m
Gross Profit	US$179.97m
Other Expenses	US$107.30m
Earnings	US$72.67m

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	1.39
Gross Margin	90.49%
Net Profit Margin	36.54%
Debt/Equity Ratio	12.6%

How did MNRL perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

9.4%

Current Dividend Yield

113%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is MNRL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MNRL?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for MNRL. This is calculated by dividing MNRL's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is MNRL's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	US$1.56b

MNRL key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	7.9x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	10x
PEG Ratio	6.3x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MNRL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

MNRL PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for MNRL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	56.5x
ESTE Earthstone Energy	136.9x	4.8%	US$1.5b
KRP Kimbell Royalty Partners	64.9x	26.5%	US$1.1b
LPI Laredo Petroleum	8.7x	29.5%	US$1.2b
ROCC Ranger Oil	15.6x	10.0%	US$1.4b
MNRL Brigham Minerals	18.3x	2.9%	US$1.6b

Forward PE

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MNRL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.3x) compared to the peer average (56.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MNRL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Oil and Gas Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MNRL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.3x) compared to the US Oil and Gas industry average (11.7x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MNRL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MNRL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	18.3x
Fair PE Ratio	14.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MNRL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.2x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MNRL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MNRL ($25.41) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($62.59)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MNRL is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: MNRL is poor value based on its PEG Ratio (6.3x)

Discover undervalued companies

Future Growth

How is Brigham Minerals forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 6 analysts?

Future Growth Score

1/6

Future Growth Score 1/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

2.9%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: MNRL's forecast earnings growth (2.9% per year) is above the savings rate (1.9%).

Earnings vs Market: MNRL's earnings (2.9% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (13.6% per year).

High Growth Earnings: MNRL's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: MNRL's revenue (0.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (8.2% per year).

High Growth Revenue: MNRL's revenue (0.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: MNRL's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (13%).

Discover growth companies

Past Performance

How has Brigham Minerals performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

3/6

Past Performance Score 3/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

32.8%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: MNRL has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: MNRL became profitable in the past.

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: MNRL's earnings have grown significantly by 32.8% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: MNRL has become profitable in the last year, making the earnings growth rate difficult to compare to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: MNRL has become profitable in the last year, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Oil and Gas industry (102.2%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: MNRL's Return on Equity (12.8%) is considered low.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is Brigham Minerals's financial position?

Financial Health Score

4/6

Financial Health Score 4/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: MNRL's short term assets ($58.5M) exceed its short term liabilities ($16.4M).

Long Term Liabilities: MNRL's short term assets ($58.5M) do not cover its long term liabilities ($99.6M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: MNRL's net debt to equity ratio (11.7%) is considered satisfactory.

Reducing Debt: Insufficient data to determine if MNRL's debt to equity ratio has reduced over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: MNRL's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (139%).

Interest Coverage: MNRL's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (62.8x coverage).

Balance Sheet

Discover healthy companies

Dividend

What is Brigham Minerals's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

2/6

Dividend Score 2/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

9.45%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: MNRL's dividend (9.45%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.61%).

High Dividend: MNRL's dividend (9.45%) is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (4.3%)

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: MNRL has been paying a dividend for less than 10 years and during this time payments have been volatile.

Growing Dividend: MNRL's dividend payments have increased, but the company has only paid a dividend for 3 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its high payout ratio (113.5%), MNRL's dividend payments are not well covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its high cash payout ratio (643.8%), MNRL's dividend payments are not well covered by cash flows.

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

3.7yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Rob Roosa (52 yo)

4.92yrs

Tenure

US$5,193,799

Compensation

Mr. Robert M. Roosa, also known as Rob, has been the Chief Executive Officer of Brigham Minerals, Inc. since July 2017 and serves as its Director since May 2018. He served as president of Brigham Minerals,...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Rob's total compensation ($USD5.19M) is about average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD5.57M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Rob's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: MNRL's management team is considered experienced (3.7 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: MNRL's board of directors are considered experienced (4.1 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: MNRL insiders have only sold shares in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 8.4%.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/07/01 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/07/01 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31