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MGY

Magnolia Oil & Gas NYSE:MGY Stock Report

Last Price

US$19.81

Market Cap

US$4.3b

7D

4.4%

1Y

7.4%

Updated

30 Sep, 2022

Data

Company Financials +
MGY fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation6/6
Future Growth1/6
Past Performance6/6
Financial Health5/6
Dividends3/6

MGY Stock Overview

Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation engages in the acquisition, development, exploration, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids reserves in the United States.

Magnolia Oil & Gas Competitors

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Magnolia Oil & Gas
Historical stock prices
Current Share PriceUS$19.81
52 Week HighUS$30.31
52 Week LowUS$17.23
Beta2.11
1 Month Change-17.01%
3 Month Change-5.89%
1 Year Change7.43%
3 Year Change88.13%
5 Year Change100.91%
Change since IPO98.10%

Recent News & Updates

Oct 01
We Ran A Stock Scan For Earnings Growth And Magnolia Oil & Gas (NYSE:MGY) Passed With Ease

We Ran A Stock Scan For Earnings Growth And Magnolia Oil & Gas (NYSE:MGY) Passed With Ease

The excitement of investing in a company that can reverse its fortunes is a big draw for some speculators, so even...

Sep 30

Magnolia Oil & Gas: Excellent Balance Sheet And Now Attractively Valued

Summary Magnolia has over $100 million in net cash currently. It is also projected to generate over $900 million in positive cash flow over the next year and a half while noticeably growing production. This may fuel continued share repurchases and an increased dividend, although Magnolia has been pretty conservative with its dividend. Reinvestment rate for 2023 is estimated at 41% at mid-$70s WTI oil and a high-single-digits production growth rate. Magnolia Oil & Gas's (MGY) founder Stephen Chazen unfortunately passed away recently, two days after being replaced as CEO and President by CFO Christopher Stavros due to serious health issues. Chazen has left Magnolia in excellent shape though, with a net cash position and the ability to grow production substantially with a low reinvestment rate. Despite weaker commodity prices, Magnolia still looks capable of generating over $900 million in positive cash flow over the next year and a half (from Q3 2022 to the end of 2023). It should also be able to keep its reinvestment rate around 40% while growing production by the high-single digits on an annualized basis. I previously had a neutral outlook on Magnolia due to my belief that it was fully valued. At sub-$20 per share though, it appears to be a good value now, with the ability to generate free cash flow over the next year and a half equal to over 22% of its market capitalization while also growing production. 2H 2022 Outlook Magnolia expects to average approximately 76,000 BOEPD in production during the second half of 2022. This would result in its production for the full year averaging approximately 74,500 BOEPD, a 13% increase compared to 2021. Magnolia also noted that its oil differential is anticipated to be a $2 to $3 discount to Magellan East Houston, which translates to very close to WTI pricing. At current strip of approximately $87 WTI oil, Magnolia is thus projected to generate $822 million in revenues during the second half of 2022. Type Barrels/Mcf $ Per Barrel/Mcf $ Million Oil 6,222,880 $86.50 $538 NGLs 3,426,080 $32.00 $110 Gas 26,010,240 $6.70 $174 Total Revenues $822 Magnolia's capital expenditures in the second half of 2022 may end up around $210 million. It previously increased its guidance for D&C capital to $400 million for 2022 (up from $350 million) due to a combination of longer laterals, additional net wells in Giddings (due to faster drilling times) and service cost inflation. $ Million Lease Operating $67 Gathering, Transportation and Processing $33 Taxes Other Than Income $46 Cash G&A $30 Cash Interest $12 Capex $210 Cash Income Taxes $38 Total Expenses $436 Magnolia is thus projected to generate $386 million in positive cash flow during the second half of 2022 at current strip prices. This does not include spending on dividends or share repurchases. Potential 2023 Outlook For 2023, I am currently modeling 8% production growth from Magnolia with a capital expenditure budget of $450 million. This would result in it averaging approximately 80,500 BOEPD in 2023. At current strip for 2023 (including approximately $74 WTI oil), Magnolia is thus projected to generate $1.436 billion in revenues. It remains unhedged on its production at last report. Type Barrels/Mcf $ Per Barrel/Mcf $ Million Oil 13,075,213 $73.50 $961 NGLs 7,198,712 $28.00 $202 Gas 54,651,450 $5.00 $273 Total Revenues $1,436 A $450 million capital expenditure budget results in an approximately 41% reinvestment rate, which is pretty good given the expected high-single digits production growth along with lower (mid-$70s) oil prices.

Shareholder Returns

MGYUS Oil and GasUS Market
7D4.4%2.2%-2.5%
1Y7.4%32.0%-23.2%

Return vs Industry: MGY underperformed the US Oil and Gas industry which returned 36.6% over the past year.

Return vs Market: MGY exceeded the US Market which returned -21.5% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is MGY's price volatile compared to industry and market?
MGY volatility
MGY Average Weekly Movement8.1%
Oil and Gas Industry Average Movement8.1%
Market Average Movement6.9%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market15.6%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market2.8%

Stable Share Price: MGY is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 8% a week.

Volatility Over Time: MGY's weekly volatility (8%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

FoundedEmployeesCEOWebsite
2017192Chris Stavroshttps://www.magnoliaoilgas.com

Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation engages in the acquisition, development, exploration, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids reserves in the United States. Its properties are located primarily in Karnes County and the Giddings Field in South Texas principally comprising the Eagle Ford Shale and the Austin Chalk formation. As of December 31, 2021, the company’s assets consisted of a total leasehold position of 4,71,263 net acres, including 23,785 net acres in Karnes and 4,47,478 net acres in the Giddings area, as well as holds 1,292 net wells with a total production capacity of 66.0 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day.

Magnolia Oil & Gas Fundamentals Summary

How do Magnolia Oil & Gas's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
MGY fundamental statistics
Market CapUS$4.31b
Earnings (TTM)US$680.49m
Revenue (TTM)US$1.48b

5.5x

P/E Ratio

2.5x

P/S Ratio

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
MGY income statement (TTM)
RevenueUS$1.48b
Cost of RevenueUS$170.23m
Gross ProfitUS$1.31b
Other ExpensesUS$628.96m
EarningsUS$680.49m

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)3.60
Gross Margin88.50%
Net Profit Margin45.99%
Debt/Equity Ratio30.7%

How did MGY perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

2.0%

Current Dividend Yield

8%

Payout Ratio
We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is MGY undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MGY?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

MGY key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.6x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA3.3x
PEG Ratio-0.5x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MGY's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

MGY PE Ratio vs Peers
The above table shows the PE ratio for MGY vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average13x
DEN Denbury
12x30.6%US$4.3b
MUR Murphy Oil
10.6x0.5%US$5.5b
BSM Black Stone Minerals
12.9x31.8%US$3.3b
CHRD Chord Energy
16.6x30.6%US$5.7b
MGY Magnolia Oil & Gas
5.5x-10.6%US$4.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MGY is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.5x) compared to the peer average (13x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MGY's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Oil and Gas Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MGY is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.5x) compared to the US Oil and Gas industry average (8.3x)


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MGY's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MGY PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio5.5x
Fair PE Ratio12.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MGY is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.4x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MGY when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MGY ($19.81) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($25.32)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MGY is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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Future Growth

How is Magnolia Oil & Gas forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 11 analysts?

Future Growth Score

1/6

Future Growth Score 1/6

  • Earnings vs Savings Rate

  • Earnings vs Market

  • High Growth Earnings

  • Revenue vs Market

  • High Growth Revenue

  • Future ROE


-10.6%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: MGY's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-10.6% per year).

Earnings vs Market: MGY's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-10.6% per year).

High Growth Earnings: MGY's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: MGY's revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years (-4.5% per year).

High Growth Revenue: MGY's revenue is forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-4.5% per year).


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: MGY's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (33%)


Discover growth companies

Past Performance

How has Magnolia Oil & Gas performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

6/6

Past Performance Score 6/6

  • Quality Earnings

  • Growing Profit Margin

  • Earnings Trend

  • Accelerating Growth

  • Earnings vs Industry

  • High ROE


9.4%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: MGY has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: MGY's current net profit margins (46%) are higher than last year (24.9%).


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: MGY has become profitable over the past 5 years, growing earnings by 9.4% per year.

Accelerating Growth: MGY's earnings growth over the past year (270.3%) exceeds its 5-year average (9.4% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: MGY earnings growth over the past year (270.3%) exceeded the Oil and Gas industry 184.6%.


Return on Equity

High ROE: MGY's Return on Equity (67.8%) is considered outstanding.


Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is Magnolia Oil & Gas's financial position?

Financial Health Score

5/6

Financial Health Score 5/6

  • Short Term Liabilities

  • Long Term Liabilities

  • Debt Level

  • Reducing Debt

  • Debt Coverage

  • Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: MGY's short term assets ($750.5M) exceed its short term liabilities ($333.0M).

Long Term Liabilities: MGY's short term assets ($750.5M) exceed its long term liabilities ($485.2M).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: MGY has more cash than its total debt.

Reducing Debt: Insufficient data to determine if MGY's debt to equity ratio has reduced over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: MGY's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (282.7%).

Interest Coverage: MGY's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (31x coverage).


Balance Sheet


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Dividend

What is Magnolia Oil & Gas's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

3/6

Dividend Score 3/6

  • Notable Dividend

  • High Dividend

  • Stable Dividend

  • Growing Dividend

  • Earnings Coverage

  • Cash Flow Coverage


2.02%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Magnolia Oil & Gas Dividend Yield vs Market
How does Magnolia Oil & Gas dividend yield compare to the market?
SegmentDividend Yield
Company (Magnolia Oil & Gas)2.0%
Market Bottom 25% (US)1.7%
Market Top 25% (US)4.7%
Industry Average (Oil and Gas)5.0%
Analyst forecast in 3 Years (Magnolia Oil & Gas)2.5%

Notable Dividend: MGY's dividend (2.02%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.66%).

High Dividend: MGY's dividend (2.02%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (4.7%).


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Too early to tell whether MGY's dividend payments have been stable as they only just started paying a dividend.

Growing Dividend: Too early to tell if MGY's dividend payments are increasing as they only just started paying a dividend.


Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its low payout ratio (8%), MGY's dividend payments are thoroughly covered by earnings.


Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its low cash payout ratio (11.6%), MGY's dividend payments are thoroughly covered by cash flows.


Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

4.0yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Chris Stavros (59 yo)

no data

Tenure

US$3,269,047

Compensation

Mr. Christopher G. Stavros, also known as Chris, is the Chief Financial Officer at Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation since July 2018 and also serves as its President, Chief Executive Officer and Director sinc...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Chris Stavros's Compensation vs Magnolia Oil & Gas Earnings
How has Chris Stavros's remuneration changed compared to Magnolia Oil & Gas's earnings?
DateTotal Comp.SalaryCompany Earnings
Jun 30 2022n/an/a

US$680m

Mar 31 2022n/an/a

US$516m

Dec 31 2021US$3mUS$529k

US$414m

Sep 30 2021n/an/a

US$293m

Jun 30 2021n/an/a

US$184m

Mar 31 2021n/an/a

US$82m

Dec 31 2020US$2mUS$511k

-US$1b

Sep 30 2020n/an/a

-US$1b

Jun 30 2020n/an/a

-US$1b

Mar 31 2020n/an/a

-US$1b

Dec 31 2019US$2mUS$512k

US$47m

Sep 30 2019n/an/a

-US$45m

Jun 30 2019n/an/a

-US$46m

Mar 31 2019n/an/a

US$21m

Dec 31 2018US$5mUS$208k

US$94m

Compensation vs Market: Chris's total compensation ($USD3.27M) is below average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD6.85M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Chris's compensation has increased by more than 20% in the past year.


Leadership Team

Experienced Management: MGY's management team is considered experienced (4 years average tenure).


Board Members

Experienced Board: MGY's board of directors are considered experienced (4.8 years average tenure).


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

NYSE:MGY Recent Insider Transactions by Companies or Individuals
DateValueNameEntityRoleSharesMax Price
06 Jun 22SellUS$202,575,000Enervest Ltd., Investment ArmCompany7,500,000US$27.01
14 Mar 22SellUS$128,754,813Enervest Ltd., Investment ArmCompany5,927,938US$21.72

Ownership Breakdown

What is the ownership structure of MGY?
Owner TypeNumber of SharesOwnership Percentage
Individual Insiders9,546,8464.9%
VC/PE Firms10,912,4505.6%
Institutions174,247,72489.5%

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Top Shareholders

Top 25 shareholders own 77.27% of the company
OwnershipNameSharesCurrent ValueChange %Portfolio %
8.55%
The Vanguard Group, Inc.
16,147,375$319.9m9.34%0.01%
6.37%
FMR LLC
12,022,402$238.2m-12.49%0.02%
5.78%
Enervest Ltd., Investment Arm
10,912,450$216.2m-19.34%100%
5.67%
BlackRock, Inc.
10,708,205$212.1m5.73%0.01%
4.61%
Janus Henderson Group plc
8,705,762$172.5m112.54%0.09%
4.49%
AllianceBernstein L.P.
8,480,229$168.0m126.97%0.07%
3.89%
Wellington Management Group LLP
7,346,551$145.5m-2.42%0.03%
3.73%
Stephen Chazen
7,038,582$139.4m0%no data
3.71%
State Street Global Advisors, Inc.
7,011,412$138.9m5.95%0.01%
3.34%
T. Rowe Price Group, Inc.
6,300,911$124.8m-71.4%0.01%
2.98%
Macquarie Investment Management Business Trust
5,628,255$111.5m-8.03%0.12%
2.75%
Silvercrest Asset Management Group LLC
5,185,884$102.7m-9.08%0.77%
2.46%
GW&K Investment Management, LLC
4,641,548$91.9m33.5%0.95%
2.2%
Victory Capital Management Inc.
4,161,353$82.4m56.16%0.09%
2.2%
Massachusetts Financial Services Company
4,161,141$82.4m66.16%0.02%
2.18%
Wasatch Advisors Inc
4,111,841$81.5m-8.53%0.38%
2.11%
Allspring Global Investments, LLC
3,983,599$78.9m2.9%0.12%
2.04%
Cardinal Capital Management, L.L.C.
3,856,265$76.4m-2.28%2.45%
1.45%
Geode Capital Management, LLC
2,738,546$54.3m11.68%0.01%
1.43%
Systematic Financial Management LP
2,705,137$53.6m22.24%1.66%
1.38%
Stephens Investment Management Group, LLC
2,607,523$51.7m0.8%0.93%
1.2%
Dimensional Fund Advisors LP
2,269,752$45.0m16.6%0.01%
0.99%
Gilder Gagnon Howe & Co. LLC
1,863,135$36.9m-5.09%0.59%
0.92%
Eaton Vance Management
1,735,858$34.4m0.03%0.01%
0.85%
Goldman Sachs Asset Management, L.P.
1,602,300$31.7m-19.61%0.01%

Company Information

Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation's employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation
  • Ticker: MGY
  • Exchange: NYSE
  • Founded: 2017
  • Industry: Oil and Gas Exploration and Production
  • Sector: Energy
  • Implied Market Cap: US$4.307b
  • Market Cap: US$3.741b
  • Shares outstanding: 217.56m
  • Website: https://www.magnoliaoilgas.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation
  • Nine Greenway Plaza
  • Suite 1300
  • Houston
  • Texas
  • 77046
  • United States


Listings

TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
MGYNYSE (New York Stock Exchange)YesClass A Common StockUSUSDJun 2017

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2022/09/30 00:00
End of Day Share Price2022/09/30 00:00
Earnings2022/06/30
Annual Earnings2021/12/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.