A Look at International Seaways’s Valuation Following Dividend and Buyback Expansion

International Seaways (INSW) caught investors’ attention this week after reporting third quarter results and unveiling a combined dividend as well as an extension of its share repurchase program. These steps are shaping sentiment around the stock.

See our latest analysis for International Seaways.

After a steady string of shareholder-friendly moves and fleet updates, International Seaways’ stock has surged with a 1-month share price return of 23.3% and year-to-date climb of nearly 48%. Momentum has gathered pace as the company remains well-positioned to benefit from tight tanker supply and ongoing capital returns. This has translated into a robust 1-year total shareholder return of 37.6% and exceptional gains for longer-term holders.

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With shares surging after the latest shareholder rewards and operational updates, the key question is whether International Seaways remains undervalued based on future prospects, or if the market has already priced in all of its growth potential.

Most Popular Narrative: 6.7% Undervalued

The most widely followed narrative sets International Seaways' fair value at $57.50, sitting above the last close of $53.63. This gap has fueled debate over whether the recent momentum is justified by underlying long-term drivers.

The continued eastward shift in refining capacity (with new Middle East and Asian refineries) and Western refinery shutdowns is expected to extend product shipping routes. This would increase the number of ton-miles and drive higher product tanker utilization and revenues for International Seaways. Ongoing geopolitical disruptions and sanctions, such as recent changes in Russian/Indian crude flows, are creating more complex and longer trade routes, boosting demand for crude and product tankers and potentially supporting higher future TCE rates and overall earnings.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what's really behind this fair value? One crucial earnings lever, a forward-looking margin shift, and aggressive growth expectations shape this valuation story. Is one bold forecast doing the heavy lifting? Click through to uncover the full set of assumptions that set the bar for International Seaways’ future.

Result: Fair Value of $57.50 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, if global energy transition policies accelerate or compliance costs rise, International Seaways’ earnings outlook could be undermined. These factors could potentially reverse current market optimism.

Find out about the key risks to this International Seaways narrative.

Build Your Own International Seaways Narrative

If you see things differently or want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can craft your own narrative in just a few minutes: Do it your way

A great starting point for your International Seaways research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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