Chevron (CVX) Valuation Check as 2026 Capex Plan and $2 Billion Gorgon LNG Expansion Take Shape

Chevron (CVX) just laid out its 2026 spending game plan, pairing a leaner capital budget with a fresh $2 billion green light for its Gorgon LNG expansion, and the stock is reacting to that strategy mix.

See our latest analysis for Chevron.

Those capital plans and the Gorgon expansion come on top of governance tweaks to modernize Chevron’s officer structure and ongoing Venezuelan operations. Even so, the stock’s 1 year total shareholder return of 1.10% and 5 year total shareholder return of 100.67% suggest longer term momentum remains intact despite softer recent share price returns.

If Chevron’s measured capex shift has you rethinking your energy exposure, this could be a good moment to explore fast growing stocks with high insider ownership for other potential long term compounders.

With shares down modestly in recent months yet still trading at a hefty intrinsic discount and below analyst targets, is Chevron quietly setting up a value entry point, or is the market already baking in that future growth?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 13.3% Undervalued

With Chevron last closing at $150 and the most followed narrative implying a higher fair value, the spread reflects sizable embedded cash flow expectations.

The integration of Hess synergies, new low-cost assets, and share buybacks will be cash flow accretive and boost EPS, even as Chevron sustains high shareholder returns regardless of commodity price cycles.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what powers that confidence in future payouts and buybacks, even with modest top line growth and a richer earnings multiple than the sector, unlock the full narrative.

Result: Fair Value of $172.92 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, slower renewable diversification and execution risks on large upstream projects could challenge Chevron’s cash flow story and temper that undervaluation thesis.

Find out about the key risks to this Chevron narrative.

Another Angle on Valuation

Even if narratives and fair value estimates suggest upside, Chevron’s 23.7x price to earnings ratio looks demanding beside the US Oil and Gas industry at 13.8x and the peer average at 22.6x. With a fair ratio of 25.3x, is the market underpricing quality or simply incorporating additional risk?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Chevron Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to dig into the numbers yourself, craft a personalized Chevron thesis in minutes, Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Chevron research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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