California Resources Corporation's (NYSE:CRC) Stock Has Seen Strong Momentum: Does That Call For Deeper Study Of Its Financial Prospects?

Most readers would already be aware that California Resources' (NYSE:CRC) stock increased significantly by 10% over the past three months. Given that stock prices are usually aligned with a company's financial performance in the long-term, we decided to study its financial indicators more closely to see if they had a hand to play in the recent price move. In this article, we decided to focus on California Resources' ROE.

Return on equity or ROE is an important factor to be considered by a shareholder because it tells them how effectively their capital is being reinvested. Put another way, it reveals the company's success at turning shareholder investments into profits.

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How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for California Resources is:

20% = US$665m ÷ US$3.4b (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2025).

The 'return' is the profit over the last twelve months. One way to conceptualize this is that for each $1 of shareholders' capital it has, the company made $0.20 in profit.

See our latest analysis for California Resources

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

A Side By Side comparison of California Resources' Earnings Growth And 20% ROE

To begin with, California Resources seems to have a respectable ROE. On comparing with the average industry ROE of 11% the company's ROE looks pretty remarkable. Needless to say, we are quite surprised to see that California Resources' net income shrunk at a rate of 8.5% over the past five years. Therefore, there might be some other aspects that could explain this. Such as, the company pays out a huge portion of its earnings as dividends, or is faced with competitive pressures.

However, when we compared California Resources' growth with the industry we found that while the company's earnings have been shrinking, the industry has seen an earnings growth of 32% in the same period. This is quite worrisome.

Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. What is CRC worth today? The intrinsic value infographic in our free research report helps visualize whether CRC is currently mispriced by the market.

Is California Resources Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?

California Resources' low three-year median payout ratio of 17% (implying that it retains the remaining 83% of its profits) comes as a surprise when you pair it with the shrinking earnings. The low payout should mean that the company is retaining most of its earnings and consequently, should see some growth. So there could be some other explanations in that regard. For example, the company's business may be deteriorating.

Moreover, California Resources has been paying dividends for four years, which is a considerable amount of time, suggesting that management must have perceived that the shareholders prefer consistent dividends even though earnings have been shrinking. Looking at the current analyst consensus data, we can see that the company's future payout ratio is expected to rise to 46% over the next three years. Consequently, the higher expected payout ratio explains the decline in the company's expected ROE (to 7.2%) over the same period.

Summary

On the whole, we do feel that California Resources has some positive attributes. Although, we are disappointed to see a lack of growth in earnings even in spite of a high ROE and and a high reinvestment rate. We believe that there might be some outside factors that could be having a negative impact on the business. Additionally, the latest industry analyst forecasts show that analysts expect the company's earnings to continue to shrink in the future. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.