NYSE:COP

Stock Analysis Report

Executive Summary

ConocoPhillips Company explores for, produces, transports, and markets crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and natural gas liquids worldwide.

Rewards

PE ratio (8.8x) is below the US market (18.9x)

Earnings grew by 39.7% over the past year

Risk Analysis

Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of -8.1% per year for the next 3 years

Has a high level of debt

Unstable dividend track record

Large one-off items impacting financial results



Snowflake Analysis

Solid track record with mediocre balance sheet.


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Share Price & News

How has ConocoPhillips's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events

Stable Share Price: COP has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months.


Market Performance


7 Day Return

-0.5%

COP

-1.0%

US Oil and Gas

2.0%

US Market


1 Year Return

-4.2%

COP

-7.6%

US Oil and Gas

23.5%

US Market

Return vs Industry: COP exceeded the US Oil and Gas industry which returned -6.8% over the past year.

Return vs Market: COP underperformed the US Market which returned 24.7% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

COPIndustryMarket
7 Day-0.5%-1.0%2.0%
30 Day3.0%0.06%4.3%
90 Day20.6%6.0%12.2%
1 Year-2.0%-4.2%-4.2%-7.6%26.1%23.5%
3 Year36.5%28.3%-8.5%-16.9%53.1%43.2%
5 Year15.3%0.6%-11.4%-24.3%75.5%56.1%

Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is ConocoPhillips's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

Valuation

Is ConocoPhillips undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

8.83x

Price to Earnings (PE) ratio


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: COP ($65.14) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($59.65)

Significantly Below Fair Value: COP is trading above our estimate of fair value.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: COP is good value based on its PE Ratio (8.8x) compared to the Oil and Gas industry average (10.2x).

PE vs Market: COP is good value based on its PE Ratio (8.8x) compared to the US market (18.9x).


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: COP's earnings are forecast to decline next year, so we can't calculate its PEG ratio.


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: COP is overvalued based on its PB Ratio (2x) compared to the US Oil and Gas industry average (1x).


Next Steps

Future Growth

How is ConocoPhillips forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 18 analysts?

-9.7%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: COP's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-8.1% per year).

Earnings vs Market: COP's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-8.1% per year).

High Growth Earnings: COP's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: COP's revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years (-0.8% per year).

High Growth Revenue: COP's revenue is forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-0.8% per year).


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: COP's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (12.3%).


Next Steps

Past Performance

How has ConocoPhillips performed over the past 5 years?

24.6%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: COP has a large one-off gain of $2.7B impacting its September 30 2019 financial results.

Growing Profit Margin: COP's current net profit margins (23.5%) are higher than last year (16.7%).


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: COP's earnings have grown significantly by 24.6% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: COP's earnings growth over the past year (39.7%) exceeds its 5-year average (24.6% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: COP earnings growth over the past year (39.7%) exceeded the Oil and Gas industry -13.3%.


Return on Equity

High ROE: COP's Return on Equity (23.8%) is considered high.


Return on Assets


Return on Capital Employed


Next Steps

Financial Health

How is ConocoPhillips's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: COP's short term assets ($15.2B) exceed its short term liabilities ($5.9B).

Long Term Liabilities: COP's short term assets ($15.2B) do not cover its long term liabilities ($29.2B).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: COP's debt to equity ratio (40.2%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: COP's debt to equity ratio has increased from 38.1% to 40.2% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: COP's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (84%).

Interest Coverage: COP's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (11.7x coverage).


Balance Sheet

Inventory Level: COP has a high level of physical assets or inventory.

Debt Coverage by Assets: COP's debt is covered by short term assets (assets are 1.1x debt).


Next Steps

Dividend

What is ConocoPhillips's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

2.58%

Current Dividend Yield


Dividend Yield vs Market

company2.6%marketbottom25%1.4%markettop25%3.7%industryaverage4.1%forecastin3Years2.6%

Current dividend yield vs market & industry

Notable Dividend: COP's dividend (2.58%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.4%).

High Dividend: COP's dividend (2.58%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (3.66%).


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: COP's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: COP's dividend payments have fallen over the past 10 years.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: With its low payout ratio (16.5%), COP's dividend payments are well covered by earnings.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: COP's dividends in 3 years are forecast to be well covered by earnings (45.1% payout ratio).


Next Steps

Management

What is the CEO of ConocoPhillips's salary, the management and board of directors tenure and is there insider trading?

4.8yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Ryan Lance (57yo)

7.7yrs

Tenure

US$23,406,270

Compensation

Mr. Ryan M. Lance has been Chief Executive Officer at ConocoPhillips Company since May 2012. Mr. Lance serves as the Chief Executive Officer at ConocoPhillips (U.K.) Limited. He has 28 years of oil and nat ...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Ryan's total compensation ($USD23.41M) is above average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD10.76M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Ryan's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.


Management Age and Tenure

4.8yrs

Average Tenure

57.5yo

Average Age

Experienced Management: COP's management team is considered experienced (4.8 years average tenure).


Board Age and Tenure

5.0yrs

Average Tenure

58yo

Average Age

Experienced Board: COP's board of directors are considered experienced (5 years average tenure).


Insider Trading

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Management Team

  • Ellen DeSanctis (62yo)

    Senior Vice President of Corporate Relations

    • Tenure: 1yrs
  • Andrew Lundquist (58yo)

    Senior Vice President of Government Affairs

    • Tenure: 7yrs
  • Ryan Lance (57yo)

    Chairman & CEO

    • Tenure: 7.7yrs
    • Compensation: US$23.41m
  • Don Wallette (60yo)

    Executive VP & CFO

    • Tenure: 3.8yrs
    • Compensation: US$10.27m
  • Glenda Schwarz (53yo)

    Principal Accounting Officer

    • Kelly Rose (52yo)

      Senior VP of Legal

      • Tenure: 1.3yrs
      • Compensation: US$4.41m
    • Matt Fox (58yo)

      Executive VP & COO

      • Tenure: 1yrs
      • Compensation: US$9.39m
    • Chris Conway

      Head of Trading & Supply Operations

      • Tenure: 10yrs
    • David Chenier

      President of United Kingdom

      • Tenure: 7.7yrs
    • Bill Bullock (54yo)

      President of Asia Pacific & Middle East

      • Tenure: 4.8yrs

    Board Members

    • John Faraci (69yo)

      Independent Director

      • Tenure: 5yrs
      • Compensation: US$377.78k
    • Robert Niblock (56yo)

      Lead Director

      • Tenure: 0.7yrs
      • Compensation: US$370.46k
    • Charles Bunch (69yo)

      Independent Director

      • Tenure: 5.7yrs
      • Compensation: US$358.97k
    • Jeff Joerres (59yo)

      Independent Director

      • Tenure: 1.5yrs
      • Compensation: US$65.17k
    • Caroline Devine (68yo)

      Independent Director

      • Tenure: 2.3yrs
      • Compensation: US$360.01k
    • Sharmila Shahani-Mulligan (53yo)

      Independent Director

      • Tenure: 2.5yrs
      • Compensation: US$351.68k
    • Ryan Lance (57yo)

      Chairman & CEO

      • Tenure: 7.7yrs
      • Compensation: US$23.41m
    • Arjun Murti (49yo)

      Independent Director

      • Tenure: 5yrs
      • Compensation: US$350.01k
    • Gay Evans (65yo)

      Independent Director

      • Tenure: 6.8yrs
      • Compensation: US$350.01k
    • Jody Freeman (55yo)

      Independent Director

      • Tenure: 7.5yrs
      • Compensation: US$348.34k

    Company Information

    ConocoPhillips Company's company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


    Key Information

    • Name: ConocoPhillips Company
    • Ticker: COP
    • Exchange: NYSE
    • Founded: 1917
    • Industry: Oil and Gas Exploration and Production
    • Sector: Energy
    • Market Cap: US$71.399b
    • Shares outstanding: 1.10b
    • Website: https://www.conocophillips.com

    Number of Employees


    Location

    • ConocoPhillips Company
    • 925 North Eldridge Parkway
    • PO Box 2197
    • Houston
    • Texas
    • 77079
    • United States

    Listings

    TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
    COPNYSE (New York Stock Exchange)YesCommon StockUSUSDJan 1968
    COPSWX (SIX Swiss Exchange)YesCommon StockCHCHFJan 1968
    YCPDB (Deutsche Boerse AG)YesCommon StockDEEURJan 1968
    YCPXTRA (XETRA Trading Platform)YesCommon StockDEEURJan 1968
    COP *BMV (Bolsa Mexicana de Valores)YesCommon StockMXMXNJan 1968
    0QZALSE (London Stock Exchange)YesCommon StockGBUSDJan 1968
    COPHWBAG (Wiener Boerse AG)YesCommon StockATEURJan 1968
    COPH34BOVESPA (Bolsa de Valores de Sao Paulo)BDR EACH REPR 0.25 COM USD0.01BRBRLAug 2012

    Biography

    ConocoPhillips Company explores for, produces, transports, and markets crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and natural gas liquids worldwide. The company primarily engages in the tight oil reservoirs, LNG, oil sands, and other production operations. Its portfolio includes unconventional plays in North America; conventional assets in North America, Europe, Asia, and Australia; various LNG developments; oil sands assets in Canada; and an inventory of conventional and unconventional exploration prospects. ConocoPhillips Company has a collaboration agreement with ExxonMobil to develop open process automation systems. The company was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas. 


    Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

    All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
    DataLast Updated (UTC time)
    Company Analysis2020/01/17 23:39
    End of Day Share Price2020/01/17 00:00
    Earnings2019/09/30
    Annual Earnings2018/12/31


    Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.