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Readers hoping to buy ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) for its dividend will need to make their move shortly, as the stock is about to trade ex-dividend. Ex-dividend means that investors that purchase the stock on or after the 19th of July will not receive this dividend, which will be paid on the 3rd of September.
ConocoPhillips’s next dividend payment will be US$0.30 per share, on the back of last year when the company paid a total of US$1.22 to shareholders. Looking at the last 12 months of distributions, ConocoPhillips has a trailing yield of approximately 2.0% on its current stock price of $59.75. We love seeing companies pay a dividend, but it’s also important to be sure that laying the golden eggs isn’t going to kill our golden goose! So we need to check whether the dividend payments are covered, and if earnings are growing.
Dividends are typically paid out of company income, so if a company pays out more than it earned, its dividend is usually at a higher risk of being cut. ConocoPhillips paid out just 19% of its profit last year, which we think is conservatively low and leaves plenty of margin for unexpected circumstances. That said, even highly profitable companies sometimes might not generate enough cash to pay the dividend, which is why we should always check if the dividend is covered by cash flow. It paid out 21% of its free cash flow as dividends last year, which is conservatively low.
It’s encouraging to see that the dividend is covered by both profit and cash flow. This generally suggests the dividend is sustainable, as long as earnings don’t drop precipitously.
Have Earnings And Dividends Been Growing?
Companies that aren’t growing their earnings can still be valuable, but it is even more important to assess the sustainability of the dividend if it looks like the company will struggle to grow. If business enters a downturn and the dividend is cut, the company could see its value fall precipitously. It’s not encouraging to see that ConocoPhillips’s earnings are effectively flat over the past five years. Better than seeing them fall off a cliff, for sure, but the best dividend stocks grow their earnings meaningfully over the long run.
The main way most investors will assess a company’s dividend prospects is by checking the historical rate of dividend growth. ConocoPhillips’s dividend payments per share have declined at 4.2% per year on average over the past 10 years, which is uninspiring.
To Sum It Up
From a dividend perspective, should investors buy or avoid ConocoPhillips? Earnings per share have been flat, although at least the company is paying out a low and conservative percentage of both its earnings and cash flow. It’s definitely not great to see earnings falling, but at least there may be some buffer before the dividend gets cut. Overall we’re not hugely bearish on the stock, but there are likely better dividend investments out there.
Ever wonder what the future holds for ConocoPhillips? See what the 13 analysts we track are forecasting, with this visualisation of its historical and future estimated earnings and cash flow
If you’re in the market for dividend stocks, we recommend checking our list of top dividend stocks with a greater than 2% yield and an upcoming dividend.
We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at firstname.lastname@example.org. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.