A Fresh Look at CNX Resources (CNX) Valuation Following Strong Earnings, Raised Outlook, and Leadership Changes

CNX Resources (CNX) posted much higher earnings and revenue for the third quarter compared to last year, while also raising its 2025 production guidance. In addition, the company’s new executive appointments add another layer to the story.

See our latest analysis for CNX Resources.

CNX’s stock has turned around sharply in recent months, building strong momentum with a 9.8% share price return over the past month and a 21.8% gain in the last quarter. Both of these are likely fueled by upbeat earnings, higher production guidance, and leadership changes. While the year-to-date share price return is still negative, long-term holders have seen a staggering 264% five-year total shareholder return. This demonstrates the company’s capacity to reward patient investors despite near-term volatility.

If you’re watching leadership changes and market moves alike, this could be an ideal moment to expand your view and discover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership

With the stock’s momentum accelerating alongside robust earnings and a higher production outlook, is CNX Resources still undervalued, or has the market already priced in its next chapter of growth and leadership changes?

Most Popular Narrative: 9.1% Overvalued

With the narrative fair value of $32.21 trailing the last close at $35.13, current prices reflect a notable premium. This valuation is rooted in expectations around operational execution, industry shifts, and future cash generation.

Favorable policy and regulatory shifts towards cleaner-burning natural gas, including programs like 45Z tax credits and renewable energy attribute markets, are creating new, high-margin revenue streams (for example, RMG sales and environmental credits), potentially enhancing both net margins and free cash flow.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know the real reason behind today's rich valuation? The most widely followed narrative is built on ambitious growth for profit margins and transformative new revenue. Get the details of which big industry bets and bold analyst assumptions are driving that higher price tag. The surprise is in the numbers.

Result: Fair Value of $32.21 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, ongoing regulatory uncertainty and volatile gas market dynamics could quickly challenge even the most bullish outlook for CNX Resources’ future growth.

Find out about the key risks to this CNX Resources narrative.

Another View: DCF Model Suggests Significant Undervaluation

While the analyst narrative prices CNX Resources as overvalued based on future earnings and industry assumptions, the SWS DCF model paints a far different picture. According to this approach, CNX trades at a steep discount and is well below its estimated fair value. Why is there such a big gap, and what do investors make of it?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out CNX Resources for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 884 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own CNX Resources Narrative

If you want to dig deeper or challenge the consensus, you always have the option to build a unique outlook in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your CNX Resources research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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