A Fresh Look at Black Stone Minerals (BSM) Valuation Ahead of Q3 2025 Earnings and Shifting Analyst Estimates

Black Stone Minerals (BSM) is drawing fresh attention as it gears up to release its Q3 2025 earnings on November 3. Investors are watching closely, considering recent shifts in both revenue and earnings estimates.

See our latest analysis for Black Stone Minerals.

Black Stone Minerals’ latest share price of $13.19 reflects a market that is still weighing its prospects, especially after a strong profit beat last quarter and some recent adjustments to revenue forecasts. Despite short-term ups and downs, the company’s one-year total return of -1.8% trails the market. However, its five-year total shareholder return of over 225% highlights substantial long-term value creation.

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With mixed analyst signals and a proven record of long-term returns, the real question is whether Black Stone Minerals is now undervalued and primed for upside, or if the market has already priced in its growth prospects.

Most Popular Narrative: Fairly Valued

At $13.19, Black Stone Minerals’ share price is nearly in line with the most widely followed narrative fair value estimate of $13.00. This suggests a balanced consensus between current market valuations and analyst expectations.

Ongoing operator diversification through the onboarding of multiple top-tier operators (transitioning from a single operator to several with over 20 well obligations per year each) reduces concentration risk and sets up a pipeline of increased drilling activity through the end of the decade. This development underpins long-term revenue growth.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what backs this seemingly steady price target? Explore the bold projections that could propel revenues, margins, and scale to new heights. Uncover the critical levers shaping future growth and see why analysts believe current market expectations may be just scratching the surface.

Result: Fair Value of $13.00 (ABOUT RIGHT)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, stalled production growth or disappointing drilling activity in core regions could quickly challenge the consensus view and put pressure on future returns.

Find out about the key risks to this Black Stone Minerals narrative.

Another View: Discounted Cash Flow Model

While analyst consensus suggests Black Stone Minerals is fairly valued near $13.00, our SWS DCF model paints a more bullish picture. It values the company at $20.76, implying the stock trades roughly 36% below what future cash flows could justify. Is the market missing something, or are the risks not fully accounted for?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Black Stone Minerals for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 832 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own Black Stone Minerals Narrative

If you have a different perspective or want to dive deeper into the numbers, you can quickly craft your own story in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Black Stone Minerals research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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