NYSE:ASPN

Stock Analysis Report

Executive Summary

Aspen Aerogels, Inc., an aerogel technology company, designs, develops, manufactures, and sells aerogel insulation products primarily for use in the energy infrastructure and building materials markets worldwide.

Rewards

Trading at 64.7% below its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 57.8% per year

Risk Analysis

Has less than 1 year of cash runway

Highly volatile share price over past 3 months



Snowflake Analysis

Reasonable growth potential with mediocre balance sheet.


Similar Companies

Share Price & News

How has Aspen Aerogels's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events

Stable Share Price: ASPN's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months.


Market Performance


7 Day Return

-1.0%

ASPN

-10.0%

US Energy Services

-2.7%

US Market


1 Year Return

261.5%

ASPN

-28.3%

US Energy Services

21.2%

US Market

Return vs Industry: ASPN exceeded the US Energy Services industry which returned -16.1% over the past year.

Return vs Market: ASPN exceeded the US Market which returned 24.7% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

ASPNIndustryMarket
7 Day-1.0%-10.0%-2.7%
30 Day27.5%-15.2%0.09%
90 Day66.7%-3.0%6.9%
1 Year261.5%261.5%-26.1%-28.3%23.8%21.2%
3 Year111.8%111.8%-56.6%-62.1%48.1%38.6%
5 Year25.9%25.9%-57.4%-64.1%72.5%53.4%

Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is Aspen Aerogels's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

Valuation

Is Aspen Aerogels undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

>50%

Undervalued compared to fair value


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: ASPN ($9.58) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($27.12)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ASPN is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: ASPN is unprofitable, so we can't compare its PE Ratio to the Energy Services industry average.

PE vs Market: ASPN is unprofitable, so we can't compare its PE Ratio to the US market.


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate ASPN's PEG Ratio to determine if it is good value.


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: ASPN is overvalued based on its PB Ratio (3.9x) compared to the US Energy Services industry average (0.7x).


Next Steps

Future Growth

How is Aspen Aerogels forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 5 analysts?

57.3%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: ASPN is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (1.7%).

Earnings vs Market: ASPN is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.

High Growth Earnings: ASPN's is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: ASPN's revenue (14.9% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (7.5% per year).

High Growth Revenue: ASPN's revenue (14.9% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: ASPN's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (14.4%).


Next Steps

Past Performance

How has Aspen Aerogels performed over the past 5 years?

8.0%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: ASPN is currently unprofitable.

Growing Profit Margin: ASPN is currently unprofitable.


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: ASPN is unprofitable, but has reduced losses over the past 5 years at a rate of 8% per year.

Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare ASPN's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable

Earnings vs Industry: ASPN is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Energy Services industry (-23.5%).


Return on Equity

High ROE: ASPN has a negative Return on Equity (-46.93%), as it is currently unprofitable.


Return on Assets


Return on Capital Employed


Next Steps

Financial Health

How is Aspen Aerogels's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: ASPN's short term assets ($40.5M) exceed its short term liabilities ($25.7M).

Long Term Liabilities: ASPN's short term assets ($40.5M) exceed its long term liabilities ($15.3M).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: ASPN's debt to equity ratio (8.2%) is considered satisfactory.

Reducing Debt: ASPN's debt to equity ratio has increased from 0% to 8.2% over the past 5 years.


Balance Sheet

Inventory Level: ASPN has a high level of physical assets or inventory.

Debt Coverage by Assets: ASPN's debt is covered by short term assets (assets are 8.3x debt).


Cash Runway Analysis

For companies that have on average been loss making in the past we assess whether they have at least 1 year of cash runway.

Stable Cash Runway: ASPN has less than a year of cash runway based on its current free cash flow.

Forecast Cash Runway: Insufficient data to determine if ASPN has enough cash runway if its free cash flow continues to grow or shrink based on historical rates.


Next Steps

Dividend

What is Aspen Aerogels's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?


Dividend Yield vs Market

companyn/amarketbottom25%1.4%markettop25%3.7%industryaverage4.2%forecastin3Yearsn/a

Current dividend yield vs market & industry

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate ASPN's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate ASPN's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any payouts.


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if ASPN's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if ASPN's dividend payments have been increasing.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: No need to calculate the sustainability of ASPN's dividend in 3 years as they are not forecast to pay a notable one for the US market.


Next Steps

Management

What is the CEO of Aspen Aerogels's salary, the management and board of directors tenure and is there insider trading?

6.1yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Don Young (62yo)

18.2yrs

Tenure

US$1,402,388

Compensation

Mr. Donald R. Young, also known as Don, has been the President and Chief Executive Officer of Aspen Aerogels, Inc. since November 2001. Mr. Young served as Chief Executive Officer of HighWired, a leading v ...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Don's total compensation ($USD1.40M) is about average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD1.08M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Don's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.


Management Age and Tenure

6.1yrs

Average Tenure

52.5yo

Average Age

Experienced Management: ASPN's management team is seasoned and experienced (6.1 years average tenure).


Board Age and Tenure

9.3yrs

Average Tenure

62yo

Average Age

Experienced Board: ASPN's board of directors are considered experienced (9.3 years average tenure).


Insider Trading

Insider Buying: ASPN insiders have only sold shares in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

SellUS$59,25811 Dec 19
Gregg Landes
EntityIndividual
Role
Chief Operating Officer
Senior Vice President of Operations & Strategic Development
Shares7,500
Max PriceUS$7.90
SellUS$35,54627 Nov 19
Kelley Conte
EntityIndividual
Role
Head of Human Resources
Vice President of Human Resources
Shares5,071
Max PriceUS$7.01
BuyUS$6,00005 Sep 19
Donald Young
EntityIndividual
Role
Chief Executive Officer
President
Shares1,000
Max PriceUS$6.00
SellUS$105,68414 Aug 19
Kelley Conte
EntityIndividual
Role
Head of Human Resources
Vice President of Human Resources
Shares16,000
Max PriceUS$6.68
BuyUS$6,20506 Aug 19
Donald Young
EntityIndividual
Role
Chief Executive Officer
President
Shares1,009
Max PriceUS$6.15
BuyUS$4,70029 May 19
Donald Young
EntityIndividual
Role
Chief Executive Officer
President
Shares1,000
Max PriceUS$4.70
BuyUS$23,25010 May 19
Donald Young
EntityIndividual
Role
Chief Executive Officer
President
Shares5,000
Max PriceUS$4.65
BuyUS$6,33409 May 19
Donald Young
EntityIndividual
Role
Chief Executive Officer
President
Shares1,380
Max PriceUS$4.59
BuyUS$23,46008 May 19
Donald Young
EntityIndividual
Role
Chief Executive Officer
President
Shares5,100
Max PriceUS$4.60

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Management Team

  • Don Young (62yo)

    President

    • Tenure: 18.2yrs
    • Compensation: US$1.40m
  • John Fairbanks (58yo)

    VP, CFO & Treasurer

    • Tenure: 13.3yrs
    • Compensation: US$619.24k
  • Sahir Surmeli

    Secretary

    • Corby Whitaker (49yo)

      Senior Vice President of Sales & Marketing

      • Tenure: 7.9yrs
      • Compensation: US$598.74k
    • Gregg Landes (50yo)

      Senior Vice President of Operations & Strategic Development

      • Tenure: 0.3yrs
    • Jeffrey Ball (51yo)

      • Tenure: 0.3yrs
    • Kelley Conte (54yo)

      Vice President of Human Resources

      • Tenure: 4.3yrs

    Board Members

    • Bill Noglows (61yo)

      Independent Director

      • Tenure: 5.6yrs
      • Compensation: US$134.02k
    • Don Young (62yo)

      President

      • Tenure: 18.2yrs
      • Compensation: US$1.40m
    • Becky Blalock (63yo)

      Independent Director

      • Tenure: 3.6yrs
      • Compensation: US$127.52k
    • Steve Mitchell (49yo)

      Independent Director

      • Tenure: 10.4yrs
      • Compensation: US$125.02k
    • Bob Gervis (59yo)

      Independent Director

      • Tenure: 9yrs
      • Compensation: US$133.02k
    • Mark Noetzel (62yo)

      Independent Chairman of the Board

      • Compensation: US$166.52k
    • Dick Reilly (71yo)

      Independent Director

      • Tenure: 9.5yrs
      • Compensation: US$135.02k

    Company Information

    Aspen Aerogels, Inc.'s company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


    Key Information

    • Name: Aspen Aerogels, Inc.
    • Ticker: ASPN
    • Exchange: NYSE
    • Founded: 2001
    • Industry: Oil and Gas Equipment and Services
    • Sector: Energy
    • Market Cap: US$239.844m
    • Shares outstanding: 24.30m
    • Website: https://www.aerogel.com

    Number of Employees


    Location

    • Aspen Aerogels, Inc.
    • Building B
    • 30 Forbes Road
    • Northborough
    • Massachusetts
    • 1532
    • United States

    Listings

    TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
    ASPNNYSE (New York Stock Exchange)YesCommon StockUSUSDJun 2014

    Biography

    Aspen Aerogels, Inc., an aerogel technology company, designs, develops, manufactures, and sells aerogel insulation products primarily for use in the energy infrastructure and building materials markets worldwide. The company provides Pyrogel XT-E that reduces the risk of corrosion under insulation in energy infrastructure operating systems; Pyrogel HPS for applications within the power generation market with operating temperatures greater than 400 C; Pyrogel XTF to provide strong protection against fire; Cryogel Z for sub-ambient and cryogenic applications in the energy infrastructure market; and Spaceloft Subsea for use in pipe-in-pipe applications in offshore oil production. It also offers Spaceloft Grey and Spaceloft A2 for use in the building materials market; and Cryogel X201, which is used in designing cold systems, such as refrigerated appliances, cold storage equipment, and aerospace systems. In addition, the company provides contract research services for the Department of Defense, the Department of Energy, and other institutions. Aspen Aerogels, Inc. was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Northborough, Massachusetts. 


    Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

    All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
    DataLast Updated (UTC time)
    Company Analysis2020/01/28 00:31
    End of Day Share Price2020/01/27 00:00
    Earnings2019/09/30
    Annual Earnings2018/12/31


    Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.