NasdaqCM:PEIX

Stock Analysis Report

Executive Summary

Pacific Ethanol, Inc. produces and markets low-carbon renewable fuels and alcohol products in the United States.

Rewards

Trading at 80% below its fair value

Risk Analysis

Currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years

Has less than 1 year of cash runway

Highly volatile share price over past 3 months

Shareholders have been diluted in the past year

+ 1 more risk


Snowflake Analysis

Fair value with worrying balance sheet.


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Share Price & News

How has Pacific Ethanol's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events

Stable Share Price: PEIX's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months.


Market Performance


7 Day Return

-3.9%

PEIX

-1.3%

US Oil and Gas

0.06%

US Market


1 Year Return

-50.2%

PEIX

-19.5%

US Oil and Gas

19.4%

US Market

Return vs Industry: PEIX underperformed the US Oil and Gas industry which returned -19.5% over the past year.

Return vs Market: PEIX underperformed the US Market which returned 19.4% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

PEIXIndustryMarket
7 Day-3.9%-1.3%0.06%
30 Day-12.8%-10.1%1.1%
90 Day23.0%-7.0%8.9%
1 Year-50.2%-50.2%-16.3%-19.5%21.9%19.4%
3 Year-92.2%-92.2%-13.3%-21.4%48.9%39.3%
5 Year-93.3%-93.3%-22.4%-33.8%71.9%53.1%

Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is Pacific Ethanol's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

Valuation

Is Pacific Ethanol undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

>50%

Undervalued compared to fair value


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: PEIX ($0.59) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($2.94)

Significantly Below Fair Value: PEIX is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: PEIX is unprofitable, so we can't compare its PE Ratio to the Oil and Gas industry average.

PE vs Market: PEIX is unprofitable, so we can't compare its PE Ratio to the US market.


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate PEIX's PEG Ratio to determine if it is good value.


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: PEIX is good value based on its PB Ratio (0.1x) compared to the US Oil and Gas industry average (0.8x).


Next Steps

Future Growth

How is Pacific Ethanol forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 1 analyst?

79.5%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: PEIX is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.

Earnings vs Market: PEIX is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.

High Growth Earnings: PEIX is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: PEIX's revenue (6.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (7.6% per year).

High Growth Revenue: PEIX's revenue (6.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if PEIX's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time


Next Steps

Past Performance

How has Pacific Ethanol performed over the past 5 years?

-59.0%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: PEIX is currently unprofitable.

Growing Profit Margin: PEIX is currently unprofitable.


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: PEIX is unprofitable, and losses have increased over the past 5 years at a rate of -59% per year.

Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare PEIX's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable

Earnings vs Industry: PEIX is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Oil and Gas industry (-10.9%).


Return on Equity

High ROE: PEIX has a negative Return on Equity (-31.58%), as it is currently unprofitable.


Return on Assets


Return on Capital Employed


Next Steps

Financial Health

How is Pacific Ethanol's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: PEIX's short term assets ($161.9M) do not cover its short term liabilities ($228.4M).

Long Term Liabilities: PEIX's short term assets ($161.9M) exceed its long term liabilities ($151.9M).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: PEIX's debt to equity ratio (92.7%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: PEIX's debt to equity ratio has increased from 14.2% to 92.7% over the past 5 years.


Balance Sheet

Inventory Level: PEIX has a high level of physical assets or inventory.

Debt Coverage by Assets: PEIX's debt is not covered by short term assets (assets are 0.6x debt).


Cash Runway Analysis

For companies that have on average been loss making in the past we assess whether they have at least 1 year of cash runway.

Stable Cash Runway: PEIX has less than a year of cash runway based on its current free cash flow.

Forecast Cash Runway: Insufficient data to determine if PEIX has enough cash runway if its free cash flow continues to grow or shrink based on historical rates.


Next Steps

Dividend

What is Pacific Ethanol's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?


Dividend Yield vs Market

companyn/amarketbottom25%1.4%markettop25%3.7%industryaverage4.6%forecastin3Yearsn/a

Current dividend yield vs market & industry

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate PEIX's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate PEIX's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any payouts.


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if PEIX's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if PEIX's dividend payments have been increasing.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: No need to calculate the sustainability of PEIX's dividend in 3 years as they are not forecast to pay a notable one for the US market.


Next Steps

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

10.3yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Neil Koehler (61yo)

14.9yrs

Tenure

US$694,945

Compensation

Mr. Neil M. Koehler is a co-founder of Pacific Ethanol Central, LLC (formerly Aventine Renewable Energy Holdings, Inc.), and serves as its Chief Executive Officer. Mr. Koehler has been the Chief Executive  ...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Neil's total compensation ($USD694.95K) is above average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD519.76K).

Compensation vs Earnings: Neil's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.


Leadership Team

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
William Jones
Founder & Independent Chairman of the Board14.9yrsUS$137.68k0.31% $87.7k
Neil Koehler
Founder14.9yrsUS$694.95k1.87% $533.6k
Bryon McGregor
Chief Financial Officer10.3yrsUS$400.04k0.43% $122.3k
Michael Kandris
COO & Director11.7yrsUS$433.55k0.40% $113.2k
Christopher Wright
VP, General Counsel & Secretary13.7yrsUS$538.01k0.36% $103.7k
Paul Koehler
Vice President of Commodities & Corporate Development4.6yrsno data0.32% $91.3k

10.3yrs

Average Tenure

63.5yo

Average Age

Experienced Management: PEIX's management team is seasoned and experienced (10.3 years average tenure).


Board Members

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
William Jones
Founder & Independent Chairman of the Board14.9yrsUS$137.68k0.31% $87.7k
Neil Koehler
Founder14.9yrsUS$694.95k1.87% $533.6k
Michael Kandris
COO & Director11.7yrsUS$433.55k0.40% $113.2k
John Prince
Lead Independent Director7.3yrsUS$103.78k0.22% $62.2k
Terry Stone
Independent Director14.9yrsUS$91.78k0.25% $70.1k
Douglas Kieta
Independent Director13.8yrsUS$91.78k0.27% $76.9k
Larry Layne
Independent Director12.2yrsUS$91.78k0.24% $69.3k
Dianne Nury
Independent Director0.3yrsUS$66.78k0.064% $18.1k
Gilbert Nathan
Independent Director0.3yrsUS$66.78k0.18% $51.4k

12.2yrs

Average Tenure

69yo

Average Age

Experienced Board: PEIX's board of directors are seasoned and experienced ( 12.2 years average tenure).


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 6.7%.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

Pacific Ethanol, Inc.'s company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Pacific Ethanol, Inc.
  • Ticker: PEIX
  • Exchange: NasdaqCM
  • Founded: 2003
  • Industry: Oil and Gas Refining and Marketing
  • Sector: Energy
  • Market Cap: US$28.468m
  • Shares outstanding: 49.78m
  • Website: https://www.pacificethanol.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • Pacific Ethanol, Inc.
  • 400 Capitol Mall
  • Suite 2060
  • Sacramento
  • California
  • 95814
  • United States

Listings

TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
FPRPDB (Deutsche Boerse AG)YesCommon StockDEEURMay 2004
PEIXNasdaqCM (Nasdaq Capital Market)YesCommon StockUSUSDMay 2004

Biography

Pacific Ethanol, Inc. produces and markets low-carbon renewable fuels and alcohol products in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Production and Marketing. It produces and markets ethanol; and co-products, such as wet and dry distillers grains, wet and dry corn gluten feed, condensed distillers solubles, corn gluten meal, corn germ, corn oil, distillers yeast, and CO2, as well as markets ethanol produced by third parties. The company also offers ethanol transportation, storage, and delivery services through third-party service providers. It sells ethanol to integrated oil companies and gasoline marketers; distillers grains and other feed co-products to dairies and feedlots; and corn oil to poultry and biodiesel customers. The company owns and operates nine ethanol production facilities in the Western states of California, Oregon, and Idaho; and in the Midwestern states of Illinois and Nebraska. Pacific Ethanol, Inc. was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Sacramento, California. 


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2020/02/19 00:43
End of Day Share Price2020/02/18 00:00
Earnings2019/09/30
Annual Earnings2018/12/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.