Oasis Petroleum (NasdaqGS:OAS) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of OAS when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

OAS ($109.3) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] ($1487.26)

OAS fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	5/6
Future Growth	4/6
Past Performance	1/6
Financial Health	5/6
Dividends	4/6

OAS Stock Overview

As of July 1, 2022, Oasis Petroleum Inc. was acquired by Whiting Petroleum Corporation, in a reverse merger transaction.

Rewards

Trading at 92.7% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 31.65% per year

Risk Analysis

Unstable dividend track record

Large one-off items impacting financial results

Profit margins (13.9%) are lower than last year (35.1%)

Oasis Petroleum Competitors

Oasis Petroleum

NYSE:WLL

US$2.7b

Crescent Energy

NYSE:CRGY

US$2.1b

Sitio Royalties

NYSE:STR

US$2.0b

California Resources

NYSE:CRC

US$3.1b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Oasis Petroleum
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$109.30
52 Week High	US$181.34
52 Week Low	US$79.31
Beta	0
1 Month Change	-33.77%
3 Month Change	-26.62%
1 Year Change	4.03%
3 Year Change	n/a
5 Year Change	n/a
Change since IPO	252.58%

Shareholder Returns

	OAS	US Oil and Gas	US Market
7D	-14.6%	1.1%	-2.5%
1Y	4.0%	28.8%	-21.2%

Return vs Industry: OAS underperformed the US Oil and Gas industry which returned 28.8% over the past year.

Return vs Market: OAS exceeded the US Market which returned -21.2% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is OAS's price volatile compared to industry and market?
OAS volatility
OAS Average Weekly Movement	8.9%
Oil and Gas Industry Average Movement	8.9%
Market Average Movement	8.1%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	16.8%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	3.3%

Stable Share Price: OAS is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 9% a week.

Volatility Over Time: OAS's weekly volatility (9%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
2007	255	n/a	https://www.oasispetroleum.com

As of July 1, 2022, Oasis Petroleum Inc. was acquired by Whiting Petroleum Corporation, in a reverse merger transaction. Oasis Petroleum Inc., an independent exploration and production company, focuses on the acquisition and development of onshore unconventional oil and natural gas resources in the United States. It engages in the acquisition and development of oil and gas properties.

Oasis Petroleum Fundamentals Summary

How do Oasis Petroleum's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
OAS fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$2.15b
Earnings (TTM)	US$252.20m
Revenue (TTM)	US$1.81b

8.5x

P/E Ratio

1.2x

P/S Ratio

Is OAS overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
OAS income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$1.81b
Cost of Revenue	US$805.67m
Gross Profit	US$1.01b
Other Expenses	US$753.25m
Earnings	US$252.20m

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	12.85
Gross Margin	55.52%
Net Profit Margin	13.92%
Debt/Equity Ratio	27.2%

How did OAS perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

13.0%

Current Dividend Yield

39%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is OAS undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for OAS?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for OAS. This is calculated by dividing OAS's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is OAS's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	US$2.15b

OAS key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.2x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	16.3x
PEG Ratio	0.3x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does OAS's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

OAS PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for OAS vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	7.4x
WLL Oasis Petroleum	6.8x	3.2%	US$2.7b
CRGY Crescent Energy	10.2x	69.1%	US$2.1b
STR Sitio Royalties	6.8x	39.8%	US$2.0b
CRC California Resources	5.8x	-5.8%	US$3.1b
OAS Oasis Petroleum	8.5x	31.6%	US$2.1b

Forward PE

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: OAS is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.5x) compared to the peer average (7.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does OAS's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Oil and Gas Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: OAS is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.5x) compared to the US Oil and Gas industry average (11.8x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is OAS's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

OAS PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	8.5x
Fair PE Ratio	23.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: OAS is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23.2x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of OAS when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: OAS ($109.3) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($1487.26)

Significantly Below Fair Value: OAS is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: OAS is good value based on its PEG Ratio (0.3x)

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Future Growth

How is Oasis Petroleum forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 4 analysts?

Future Growth Score

4/6

Future Growth Score 4/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

31.6%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: OAS's forecast earnings growth (31.6% per year) is above the savings rate (1.9%).

Earnings vs Market: OAS's earnings (31.6% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (13.6% per year).

High Growth Earnings: OAS's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: OAS's revenue (19.8% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (8.2% per year).

High Growth Revenue: OAS's revenue (19.8% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if OAS's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time

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Past Performance

How has Oasis Petroleum performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

1/6

Past Performance Score 1/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

-22.8%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: OAS has a large one-off gain of $224.2M impacting its March 31 2022 financial results.

Growing Profit Margin: OAS's current net profit margins (13.9%) are lower than last year (35.1%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: OAS has become profitable over the past 5 years, growing earnings by -22.8% per year.

Accelerating Growth: OAS's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: OAS had negative earnings growth (-14.5%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Oil and Gas industry average (102.2%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: OAS's Return on Equity (17.5%) is considered low.

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Financial Health

How is Oasis Petroleum's financial position?

Financial Health Score

5/6

Financial Health Score 5/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: OAS's short term assets ($952.2M) exceed its short term liabilities ($901.0M).

Long Term Liabilities: OAS's short term assets ($952.2M) exceed its long term liabilities ($665.0M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: OAS has more cash than its total debt.

Reducing Debt: OAS's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 78.1% to 27.2% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: OAS's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (251.8%).

Interest Coverage: OAS's interest payments on its debt are not well covered by EBIT (0x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Oasis Petroleum current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

4/6

Dividend Score 4/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

13.01%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: OAS's dividend (13.01%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.6%).

High Dividend: OAS's dividend (13.01%) is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (4.25%)

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Too early to tell whether OAS's dividend payments have been stable as they only just started paying a dividend.

Growing Dividend: Too early to tell if OAS's dividend payments are increasing as they only just started paying a dividend.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its reasonably low payout ratio (39.2%), OAS's dividend payments are well covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its reasonably low cash payout ratio (37.2%), OAS's dividend payments are well covered by cash flows.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

CEO

Oasis Petroleum has no CEO, or we have no data on them.

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/07/03 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/07/01 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31