Is NextDecade's (NEXT) Widening Year-to-Date Loss Shaping Its Long-Term Growth Narrative?

• NextDecade Corporation recently reported third quarter 2025 results, showing a US$109.48 million net loss for the quarter, which narrowed from the previous year, while the nine-month net loss widened to US$252.12 million compared to 2024.
• The company’s quarterly basic loss per share improved year-over-year, but the year-to-date figure nearly doubled, highlighting evolving cost pressures or project ramp-ups.
• We’ll explore how the mixed earnings update, especially the growing nine-month losses, impacts the company’s investment narrative going forward.

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What Is NextDecade's Investment Narrative?

For NextDecade shareholders, the big picture remains centered on whether the company can turn ambitious project plans, including multi-decade LNG supply agreements, into meaningful revenues and ultimately, profitability. The third-quarter results saw a year-over-year improvement in the quarterly net loss, but the substantial widening of year-to-date losses and nearly doubling of basic loss per share underline growing cost pressures, potentially linked to project ramp-ups and financing activity. Short-term catalysts, such as progress on the Rio Grande LNG project and final investment decisions on future trains, remain important, but the latest results reinforce how cash burn and ongoing unprofitability may outweigh positive contract announcements in the near term. Given July's board refresh and the CFO transition in October, plus doubts raised by auditors about NextDecade’s ability to continue as a going concern earlier this year, the most recent update adds weight to liquidity and execution risks, potentially dampening enthusiasm for near-term share recovery despite a recent small bounce. On the other hand, the company’s short cash runway is a red flag that shouldn’t be overlooked.

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Exploring Other Perspectives

The Simply Wall St Community’s four fair value estimates for NextDecade range from US$2 to US$20 per share, highlighting widely differing outlooks. Against this backdrop, the company’s widening losses and cash runway risks urge careful consideration of near-term financial sustainability, even as longer-term contract wins gather attention.

Explore 4 other fair value estimates on NextDecade - why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!

Build Your Own NextDecade Narrative

Disagree with this assessment? Create your own narrative in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your NextDecade research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free NextDecade research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate NextDecade's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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