Calumet (CLMT): Reassessing Valuation After $1.44 Billion DOE Loan Fuels SAF Expansion and Balance Sheet Shift

Calumet (CLMT) is back in the spotlight after securing a $1.44 billion DOE guaranteed loan, a move that reshapes its balance sheet and accelerates the pivot toward sustainable aviation fuel.

See our latest analysis for Calumet.

That backdrop helps explain why the share price, now at $19.34, still shows a negative year to date share price return, even as a stronger 90 day share price return and solid five year total shareholder return suggest momentum around the renewables pivot is gradually rebuilding.

If this DOE backed shift has you rethinking your energy exposure, it could be a good moment to explore fast growing stocks with high insider ownership as potential next wave opportunities.

With the balance sheet de-risking complete and a multiyear SAF ramp on deck, does a modest discount to analyst targets hint at underappreciated upside, or is the market already baking in Calumet’s next leg of growth?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 9.8% Undervalued

With Calumet last closing at $19.34 versus a narrative fair value of about $21.45, the prevailing storyline leans toward modest upside from here.

The MaxSAF 150 project is on track to start up in the first half of 2026, enabling Calumet to produce 120-150 million annual gallons of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) at relatively low capital costs, capturing premiums of $1-$2/gallon over renewable diesel and tapping into surging mandated and voluntary SAF demand globally. This is likely to drive a material step-up in revenues and EBITDA margin expansion once operational.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see how one ambitious SAF ramp, steady top line growth, and a richer future earnings multiple all combine to justify that premium fair value? Read on.

Result: Fair Value of $21.45 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, the story could shift if policy support for renewables weakens or if high leverage constrains Calumet’s ability to fund MaxSAF and other growth projects.

Find out about the key risks to this Calumet narrative.

Build Your Own Calumet Narrative

If you see the numbers differently or want to pressure test your own thesis, you can spin up a personalized view in just a few minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Calumet research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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